Informations Rapides · 22 September 2022 · n° 242

In September 2022, the business climate in manufacturing industry has deteriorated again Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2022

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2022, the indicator of the business climate in the manufacturing industry has diminished for the third month in a row. At 102, the composite indicator has lost one point but remains above its average (100). The falls of the balances of opinion on the expected change in production and on the overall order-books have contributed to this degradation. On the contrary, the balance of opinion on the past change in the production has bounced back. In addition, perceived economic uncertainty has spread.

For the third month in a row, the balances of opinion on the order-books, overall as well as foreign, have declined. However, they remain above their averages.

Although it has slightly decreased in September, the balance of opinion associated to the current level of the finished-goods inventory has held above its average. It had exceeded it last month for the first time since July 2020. In the manufacture of food and beverages, this balance of opinion has straightened up for the second month in a row, but remains very degraded.

The balance relating to the level of economic uncertainty perceived by the business leaders has clearly grown, returning to the high level reached in April 2022.

The balance of opinion on the change in production during the last three months has bounced back in September and passed over its average. Conversely, the balance on the prospects of production over the next three months has shrunk, while remaining above its own. In the branch of the “other industries”, this balance has reached its lowest level since May 2020. Moreover, the general prospects of production in the manufacturing industry has slightly deteriorated; the associated balance stands just above its average.

The share of companies declaring supply difficulties has been almost stable compared to the last month, at 42%, that is 4 times more than the long-term average. The proportion of companies declaring that they have been limited in their production by a lack of personnel has somewhat diminished but also remains high (23%, that is 3 times more than the average).

The balance of opinion on the expected trend in selling prices has barely increased and remains well above its average.

Finally, the balances of opinion associated to the past and expected change in the workforce have hardly diminished and remain widely superiors to their averages.

In the "other industries" the business climate has deteriorated again. The synthetic indicator has thus reached its lowest level since November 2020. The balance of opinion on production expectations over the next three months has fallen well below its average. After three months of decline, the one on global order books has gone back just below its own.

In the sector of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate indicator has slightly fallen, standing well above its average. Nevertheless, in electrical equipment, the synthetic indicator has gone back below its average for the first time since January 2021.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator has been almost stable, at the level of its average (100). In the manufacture of motor vehicles, the climate has brightened a little, driven by the upturn in the balance of opinion on the expected change in production over the next three months. However, the indicator remains below its average. In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the business climate indicator has contracted due in particular to the decline in the balance of opinion on the level of overall and foreign order books. However, it remains above its average.

Finally, in the manufacture of food products and beverages, the indicator of the business climate has slightly decreased, while remaining above its average.

The business climate in manufacturing industry of August 2022 has been revised downwards by one point, due to the inclusion of late responses.