Informations Rapides ·
23 June 2022 · n° 165
In June 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services Monthly survey of services - June 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100).
Modified version on 26 September 2022 (correction of the series on the table: Economic outlook in the services sector)
According to the business managers surveyed in June 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 108, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-06 | 107.9 |
| 2022-05 | 109.1 |
| 2022-04 | 108.2 |
| 2022-03 | 108.5 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.4 |
| 2021-12 | 107.2 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.8 |
| 2021-08 | 108.3 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.2 |
| 2021-04 | 91.4 |
| 2021-03 | 93.6 |
| 2021-02 | 88.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.2 |
| 2020-12 | 89.8 |
| 2020-11 | 77.7 |
| 2020-10 | 88.5 |
| 2020-09 | 94.2 |
| 2020-08 | 93.4 |
| 2020-07 | 88.6 |
| 2020-06 | 77.7 |
| 2020-05 | 51.4 |
| 2020-04 | 41.4 |
| 2020-03 | 92.7 |
| 2020-02 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.1 |
| 2019-10 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 105.5 |
| 2019-08 | 104.9 |
| 2019-07 | 104.9 |
| 2019-06 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 105.4 |
| 2019-04 | 105.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-02 | 103.6 |
| 2019-01 | 103.5 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2018-11 | 103.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.3 |
| 2018-08 | 103.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.3 |
| 2018-06 | 104.4 |
| 2018-05 | 104.0 |
| 2018-04 | 105.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.3 |
| 2017-05 | 102.5 |
| 2017-04 | 103.1 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.4 |
| 2016-11 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 100.7 |
| 2016-09 | 100.8 |
| 2016-08 | 100.2 |
| 2016-07 | 100.4 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.6 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.1 |
| 2015-12 | 97.2 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.6 |
| 2015-09 | 97.7 |
| 2015-08 | 98.7 |
| 2015-07 | 97.6 |
| 2015-06 | 97.0 |
| 2015-05 | 95.6 |
| 2015-04 | 94.1 |
| 2015-03 | 92.6 |
| 2015-02 | 91.8 |
| 2015-01 | 91.5 |
| 2014-12 | 91.6 |
| 2014-11 | 91.6 |
| 2014-10 | 91.6 |
| 2014-09 | 91.4 |
| 2014-08 | 91.9 |
| 2014-07 | 92.9 |
| 2014-06 | 92.6 |
| 2014-05 | 92.5 |
| 2014-04 | 93.6 |
| 2014-03 | 93.3 |
| 2014-02 | 92.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.6 |
| 2013-12 | 91.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.7 |
| 2013-10 | 92.0 |
| 2013-09 | 92.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.0 |
| 2013-07 | 87.1 |
| 2013-06 | 86.6 |
| 2013-05 | 85.4 |
| 2013-04 | 84.0 |
| 2013-03 | 84.8 |
| 2013-02 | 87.6 |
| 2013-01 | 88.8 |
| 2012-12 | 87.8 |
| 2012-11 | 86.2 |
| 2012-10 | 86.8 |
| 2012-09 | 88.0 |
| 2012-08 | 88.2 |
| 2012-07 | 90.2 |
| 2012-06 | 90.6 |
| 2012-05 | 92.6 |
| 2012-04 | 96.0 |
| 2012-03 | 94.1 |
| 2012-02 | 92.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.4 |
| 2011-12 | 95.3 |
| 2011-11 | 95.6 |
| 2011-10 | 97.7 |
| 2011-09 | 98.7 |
| 2011-08 | 100.8 |
| 2011-07 | 105.1 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.6 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.1 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-10 | 102.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.7 |
| 2010-07 | 99.2 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-05 | 99.3 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-03 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.4 |
| 2010-01 | 94.2 |
| 2009-12 | 92.8 |
| 2009-11 | 92.3 |
| 2009-10 | 91.0 |
| 2009-09 | 87.9 |
| 2009-08 | 84.8 |
| 2009-07 | 82.3 |
| 2009-06 | 78.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.2 |
| 2009-04 | 70.3 |
| 2009-03 | 70.2 |
| 2009-02 | 75.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.3 |
| 2008-12 | 78.8 |
| 2008-11 | 81.9 |
| 2008-10 | 85.8 |
| 2008-09 | 94.1 |
| 2008-08 | 96.0 |
| 2008-07 | 97.5 |
| 2008-06 | 101.6 |
| 2008-05 | 104.7 |
| 2008-04 | 107.1 |
| 2008-03 | 108.6 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.3 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.0 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.7 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.3 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.5 |
| 2006-02 | 106.2 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.7 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.4 |
| 2005-09 | 106.9 |
| 2005-08 | 107.3 |
| 2005-07 | 107.6 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.9 |
| 2005-03 | 108.2 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-01 | 106.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have deteriorated whereas their opinion on past activity has improved again
In June 2022, the business managers are less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects. The balances of opinion on the general business outlook for the sector and on expected demand have weakened sharply. The one on expected activity has decreased too. Nevertheless, these three balances remain above their respective averages. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty has increased.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved sharply and has returned to its level of December 2021, well above its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has continued to increase and has reached a level not seen since 1990. The one on the expected change in selling prices has rebounded slightly and also stands at a very high level, well above its average.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-06 | 11.1 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has increased sharply, mainly due to temporary work agencies, and has returned above its average level. The one on the expected workforce size is virtually stable, above its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Mar. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | May 2022 | June 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 108 | 109 | 108 |
| General outlook | -7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Past activity | 2 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Past employment | 2 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 7 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate remains very favourable in accommodation and food services
In June 2022, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has fallen back slightly but remains at a very high level. In particular, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has decreased but remains well above its average. The balance on past activity has increased for the fourth month in a row and stands well above its average too.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has deteriorated but remains above its average. Indeed, the forward-looking balances have decreased and remain above their respective averages.
In real estate activities, the business climate has also deteriorated but remains above its average level. The balance on expected activity has decreased sharply and has moved below its own.
In information-communication and road freight transport, the business climate indicator is virtually stable, above its average.
In administrative and support services, the climate indicator has improved and consequently remains well above its average. In particular, the balances on activity, both past and expected, and the one on past employment, have improved sharply.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Mar. 2022 | Apr. 2022 | May 2022 | June 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 106 | 102 | 103 |
| Past activity | -5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -10 | 3 | -10 | -5 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -4 | -1 | -6 | -13 |
| Past employment | -5 | 0 | -9 | -2 | -5 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| General outlook | -18 | -13 | -11 | -12 | -14 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 119 | 119 | 122 | 120 |
| Past activity | -7 | -3 | 3 | 32 | 35 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 21 |
| Past employment | -5 | 3 | -2 | 9 | 5 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 3 |
| General outlook | -14 | 17 | 21 | 30 | 22 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 107 | 106 | 105 |
| Past activity | 7 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Past employment | 6 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 15 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 18 |
| General outlook | 0 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 104 |
| Past activity | 7 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 14 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| Past employment | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| General outlook | -4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 105 | 110 | 107 |
| Past activity | -1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -5 | -6 | 2 | -3 |
| Past employment | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
| General outlook | -8 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 4 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 107 | 107 | 110 |
| Past activity | 5 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| Past employment | 8 | 8 | -6 | -15 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| General outlook | -3 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of May 2022 has not been revised.
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 20 June 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 July 2022 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 May and 20 June 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 21 July 2022 at 8:45 am