Informations Rapides · 21 April 2022 · n° 99

In April 2022, demand prospects have distinctly deteriorated in the manufacturing industries compared to January 2022 Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2022

In April 2022, the balances of opinion related to the demand, past as well as upcoming, have deteriorated with respect to January. Simultaneously, the share of enterprises reporting being limited in their production by supply difficulties only has gone up again and has reached a new high point. In particular, supply difficulties have bounced back, while recruitment difficulties remain strong. Finally, industrialists anticipate again an acceleration in their selling prices.

In April 2022, the manufacturers' opinion regarding the trend in demand, overall as well as foreign has deteriorated. The balances on the change in demand over the past three months have clearly folded back and have gotten closer to their long-term average. The balances on the change in the expected demand over the next three months have withdrawn even more strongly and have fallen back below their average. Likewise, the balance on the general exportation prospects has dropped below its average.

The share of firms reporting being limited in their production by supply difficulties only has rebounded after having fallen in early 2022. The series has reached a new high point since it exists (1991). One enterprise out of two in the manufacturing industry has thus claimed to be prevented from increasing its production by at least one type of supply difficulty. In particular, the percentage of enterprises facing supply difficulties has strongly rebounded and has returned to its record level of October 2021. The increase is most noteworthy in the manufacture of food products and beverages, where this percentage has increased from 26 % to 41 %.

In April 2022, the production capacity utilization rate has slightly dropped. It has reached 82 %, a point below its long-term average level. The share of enterprises declaring that they would not be able to increase their production with their current means if they received more orders has fallen to 42 %. After having reached an all-time high in January, this proportion remains at a very high level in April. Moreover, a few more business leaders than in the previous quarter consider their production capacity to be sufficient given the expected change in orders over the next three months. The associated balance has increased by two points after a year of continuous decline during which it had lost 15 points.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in investment over the next three months, introduced in this survey in October 2021, has clearly bounced back after having decreased in early 2022.

Since the beginning of 2021, business leaders in the manufacturing industry have been reporting a sharp increase in their selling prices. They have confirmed this trend in April 2022. Over the last three months, business leaders have seen a 3.9 % increase in their selling prices, while they had anticipated an increase of 1.6 % for this same period in January 2022. In addition, they anticipate an acceleration in their selling prices, which could grow on average by 2.5 % over the next three months. This new anticipation is the highest since the series exists (1991).

The cash-flow situation of industrial enterprises has been deemed less favourable: the related balance of opinion has folded back in April.

Moreover, the balance on the general expectations for the change in hourly wages in industry has increased for the fifth consecutive quarter. It is well above its long-term average level.

The balances related to the change in workforce over the past and the next three months both lie well above their average. At the same time, the proportion of enterprises experiencing recruitment difficulties stays at 62 %. This is the highest point for this series which exists since 1991 and whose average is 30 %.

Asked about the development of their competitive position, business leaders have stated that it should deteriorate on the national market and in the European Union as well as outside the European Union. The balance of opinion regarding competitiveness on the national market has gone back to its long-term average, while the other two have fallen back below their.

In the manufacturing industry, a few more business leaders in April 2022 than in October 2021 estimate that their investments have increased in 2021. The largest upward revisions concern the manufacture of equipment goods as well as the manufacture of transport equipment.

Regarding 2022, industrialists have made a second judgment on the expected change in their investments, after the one of October 2021: the associated balance of opinion is barely higher than it was six months ago. The manufacture of transport equipment is the sector where the balance on the expected change in investments in 2022 is the highest and the one where manufacturers have revised their expectations of October 2021 the most sharply upwards.