Insee
Informations Rapides · 28 January 2022 · n° 25
Informations rapidesGDP increased by +0.7% in Q4 2021. On average in 2021, it increased by 7.0% (after -8.0% in 2020).Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2021

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a more moderate pace in Q4 2021 (+0.7% after +3.1%) after the strong increase recorded in Q3 with the reopenings in several sectors of activity. After returning to its pre-crisis level in the previous quarter (+0.2% compared to Q4 2019), GDP exceeded it significantly in Q4 (+0.9% compared to Q4 2019).

The various contributions to GDP growth were more homogeneous this quarter. Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed to +0.5 points, after +3.6 points in the previous quarter: in particular, the growth rate of household consumption expenditure (+0.4% after +5.6% in Q3 2021) was similar to that of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.5% after +0.1%).

Foreign trade, still catching up, grew faster than domestic demand. The increase was more marked on the side of imports (+3.6% after +0.8%) than exports (+3.2% after +1.7%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter: -0.2 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4 points after -0.7 points in Q3 2021).

On average over 2021, GDP increased by +7.0% after -8.0% in 2020. The average level of GDP in 2021 was thus 1.6% below its average level in 2019. This first estimate of the annual aggregates, by sum of the four quarters, will be consolidated when the 2021 provisional annual account will be published at the end of May 2022.

Informations rapides
No 25
Paru le : Paru le 28/01/2022
Prochaine parution le : 29/07/2022 at 07:30 - second quarter 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a more moderate pace in Q4 2021 (+0.7% after +3.1%) after the strong increase recorded in Q3 with the reopenings in several sectors of activity. After returning to its pre-crisis level in the previous quarter (+0.2% compared to Q4 2019), GDP exceeded it significantly in Q4 (+0.9% compared to Q4 2019).

The various contributions to GDP growth were more homogeneous this quarter. Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed to +0.5 points, after +3.6 points in the previous quarter: in particular, the growth rate of household consumption expenditure (+0.4% after +5.6% in Q3 2021) was similar to that of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.5% after +0.1%).

Foreign trade, still catching up, grew faster than domestic demand. The increase was more marked on the side of imports (+3.6% after +0.8%) than exports (+3.2% after +1.7%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter: -0.2 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4 points after -0.7 points in Q3 2021).

On average over 2021, GDP increased by +7.0% after -8.0% in 2020. The average level of GDP in 2021 was thus 1.6% below its average level in 2019. This first estimate of the annual aggregates, by sum of the four quarters, will be consolidated when the 2021 provisional annual account will be published at the end of May 2022.

GDP - SA-WDA

GDP - SA-WDA ()
PIB
2021-Q4 588023
2021-Q3 583874
2021-Q2 566044
2021-Q1 558589
2020-Q4 557790
2020-Q3 563998
2020-Q2 475468
2020-Q1 549517
2019-Q4 582683
2019-Q3 584958
2019-Q2 584255
2019-Q1 581223
2018-Q4 577528
2018-Q3 573391
2018-Q2 571010
2018-Q1 569060
2017-Q4 568897
2017-Q3 564124
2017-Q2 560534
2017-Q1 556029
2016-Q4 551519
2016-Q3 548544
2016-Q2 547499
2016-Q1 548398
2015-Q4 544951
2015-Q3 544132
2015-Q2 542320
2015-Q1 542265
2014-Q4 539683
2014-Q3 539188
2014-Q2 536513
2014-Q1 535857
2013-Q4 535452
2013-Q3 532885
2013-Q2 532810
2013-Q1 529326
2012-Q4 529387
2012-Q3 529767
2012-Q2 528741
2012-Q1 529565
2011-Q4 529112
2011-Q3 528155
2011-Q2 526238
2011-Q1 526075
2010-Q4 520941
2010-Q3 517245
2010-Q2 513926
2010-Q1 511307
2009-Q4 509501
2009-Q3 505940
2009-Q2 505120
2009-Q1 505620
2008-Q4 514088
2008-Q3 521659
2008-Q2 523111
2008-Q1 525355
2007-Q4 523293
2007-Q3 522053
2007-Q2 520195
2007-Q1 516291
2006-Q4 512480
2006-Q3 508421
2006-Q2 508364
2006-Q1 503331
2005-Q4 499501
2005-Q3 495621
2005-Q2 493167
2005-Q1 492256

GDP - SA-WDA

  • Source: INSEE

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2020 2021
GDP 0.1 1.3 3.1 0.7 -8.0 7.0
Imports 1.8 1.9 0.8 3.6 -12.2 7.6
Household consumption expenditure -0.2 1.3 5.6 0.4 -7.2 4.8
General government’s consumption expenditure -0.3 0.4 2.7 0.3 -3.2 6.2
GFCF 0.2 2.5 0.1 0.5 -8.9 11.6
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.2 1.9 0.1 0.8 -8.1 12.2
Households -1.7 5.0 1.0 0.0 -12.2 15.8
General government -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -0.2 -4.4 4.8
Exports 0.4 2.0 1.7 3.2 -16.1 9.0
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes -0.1 1.4 3.6 0.5 -6.7 6.8
Inventory changes 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 0.2
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

GDP and its main components - percentage change from 2019 Q4

percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components - percentage change from 2019 Q4 (percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4
GDP -4.1 -2.9 0.2 0.9
Imports -7.2 -5.4 -4.7 -1.2
Household consumption expenditure -6.9 -5.7 -0.4 0.0
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.5 1.0 3.7 4.1
GFCF -1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 0.5 2.4 2.5 3.2
Households -2.3 2.6 3.6 3.6
General government -1.5 -0.6 -1.7 -1.9
Exports -9.9 -8.1 -6.6 -3.5
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Total production grew vigorously in Q4 2021 (+0.9% after +2.9%) and clearly exceeded its pre-crisis level (+1.1% from Q4 2019)

Total production of goods and services grew vigorously in Q4 2021: +0.9%, after +2.9% in Q3. In particular, the pace of the production in market services remained strong (+1.6% after +5.0%). The slowdown in the pace of growth in services was largely mechanical, after the rebound in the second and the third quarter with the reopenings in several sectors of activity. Thus, the production in hotel and restaurant services stabilised this quarter (+0.4% after +44.5% in Q3 2021), while the production growth in IT services remained vigorous (+2.9% after +3.0%), as in business services (+1.2% after +2.9%). The production in non-market services returned to a more moderate pace (+0.3% after +1.4%). Production in construction decreased for the second quarter in a row (-0.6% after -0.3%).

The production of goods appeared relatively more moderate: +0.2% after 0.0%. The production of the manufacturing branches rebounded slightly (+0.3% after -0.5%), while the production of energy, water and waste decreased by 0.1%.

On average over 2021, total production of goods and services increased by +7.4% after -8.5% in 2020 and was thus 1.7% below its average level in 2019. Goods production was clearly down on an annual average (-5.6% compared to 2019), especially in transport equipment (-27,2% compared to 2019), while services production was much closer to its pre-crisis average level (-0.5% compared to 2019).

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2020 2021
Production of branches 0.4 1.6 2.9 0.9 -8.5 7.4
Goods 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -10.8 5.8
Manufactured industry 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 -13.0 6.3
Construction 0.9 2.9 -0.3 -0.6 -13.0 12.9
Market services 0.3 2.6 5.0 1.6 -8.2 7.7
Non-market services 0.3 0.0 1.4 0.3 -3.4 6.1
Household consumption -0.2 1.3 5.6 0.4 -7.2 4.8
Food products 0.4 -1.7 -3.1 1.3 3.0 -2.6
Energy 3.4 1.7 2.3 0.3 -7.3 7.5
Engineered goods 0.2 -4.8 6.6 -0.5 -8.4 6.3
Services -1.1 5.0 9.7 1.2 -11.1 7.0
GFCF 0.2 2.5 0.1 0.5 -8.9 11.6
Manufactured goods 0.1 0.7 -2.2 -1.2 -11.1 8.6
Construction 0.9 2.9 -0.5 -0.4 -14.2 14.3
Market services -0.4 3.0 1.9 2.3 -1.3 10.6
  • Source : Insee

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components – percentage change from 2019 Q4

percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components – percentage change from 2019 Q4 (percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4
Production of branches -4.1 -2.6 0.2 1.1
Goods -4.3 -3.9 -4.0 -3.7
Manufactured industry -5.5 -5.6 -6.0 -5.8
Construction -3.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3
Market services -5.8 -3.3 1.5 3.1
Non-market services 1.6 1.5 2.9 3.2
Household consumption -6.9 -5.7 -0.4 0.0
Food products 2.9 1.2 -2.0 -0.7
Energy -2.0 -0.4 1.9 2.2
Engineered goods -3.4 -8.0 -1.9 -2.4
Services -13.3 -9.0 -0.2 1.0
GFCF -1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9
Manufactured goods -3.1 -2.4 -4.5 -5.6
Construction -3.7 -0.8 -1.3 -1.7
Market services 3.1 6.2 8.2 10.6
  • Source: Insee

Household consumption remained strongin Q4 2021 (+0.4% after +5.6%) and returned to its pre-crisis level (+0.0% from Q4 2019)

Household consumption expenditure remained strong this quarter (+0.4% after +5.6% in Q3 2021), despite the mechanical slowdown following the reopenings in the second and third quarters.

Consumption in hotel and restaurant services remained steady (+0.0% after +59.9%, -1.8% from Q4 2019) while consumption in transport services, still far below its pre-crisis level (-15.9% from Q4 2019), continued to catch up (+5.7% after +46.1%). Overall, household consumption was back to its pre-crisis level (+0.0% from Q4 2019).

Over the year 2021, the rebound in household consumption appeared more limited than that of production: +4.8% after -7.2% in 2020. Over the year 2021, household consumption was thus on average 2.7% lower than its 2019 level, reflecting a health situation that particularly weighed on consumption in the first half of 2021.

GFCF accelerated slightly this quarter (+0.5% after +0.1%), mainly driven by investment in IT services

Total GFCF showed a contrasted situation: even if it accelerated globally in Q4 2021 (+0.5%, after +0.1%), it was mainly driven by GFCF in market services (+2.3% after +1.9%), especially in IT services (+3,9% after +2,8%). On the contrary, GFCF in manufactured goods (-1.2% after -2.2%) and in construction (-0.4%, after -0.5%) fell for the second consecutive quarter,

Over the year 2021, total GFCF recovered strongly: +11.6% after -8.9% in 2020. It was thus 1.7% above its average 2019 level, especially in market services (+9.1% compared to its average 2019 level).

Foreign trade continued to recover but contributed negatively to GDP growth

The recovery of foreign trade accelerated in Q4, more on the import side (+3.6% after +0.8%) than on the export side (+3.2% after +1.7%). In particular, imports of transport equipment rebounded sharply (+8.8% after -6.9%), while exports were driven by transport services (+13.6% after -9.4%), especially maritime, and other industrial products (+2.7% after -0.6%). Trade linked to international tourism continued to recover, particularly on the export side (+17.3%, against +7.7% for imports). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was negative this quarter (-0.2 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter).

Over the year 2021, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly positive (+0.2 points after -1.1 points in 2020). Over the year 2021, exports and imports remained at a particularly low level and were respectively 8.5% and 5.5% below their average level in 2019.

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive (+0.4 points) in Q4 2021

Inventory changes, particularly in transport equipment, contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+0.4 points, after -0.7 points in Q3 2021). Over the year 2021, inventory changes contributed by -0.1 points to GDP growth.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2020 2021(ovhg)
HDI 0.2 0.6 1.0 na 1.0 3.6
HDI (purchasing power) -0.6 0.3 0.2 na 0.4 2.0
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.7 0.2 0.1 na 0.0 1.7
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.4 0.4 1.3 na -1.1 3.3
Saving rate (level) 22.1 21.4 17.1 na 21.4 na
Financial saving rate (level) 11.8 10.4 6.0 na 12.2 na
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • na : not available at the first estimate
  • Source: Insee

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2020
Profit share 35.5 35.7 33.6 na 31.7
Investment ratio 25.9 26.0 25.2 na 24.6
Savings ratio 25.5 25.9 24.0 na 21.8
Self-financing ratio 98.4 99.9 95.2 na 88.6
  • na : not available at the first estimate
  • Source: Insee

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2020
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 371.1 376.0 363.9 na 1419.9
Total receipts 316.4 320.2 329.3 na 1210.9
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -54.7 -55.8 -34.6 na -209.0
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -9.1 -9.1 -5.5 na -9.1
  • na : not available at the first estimate
  • Source : Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate was revised upwards by 0.1 points for each of the first three quarters of the year (+0.1%, +1.3% and +3.1%, the first two rounded figures staying unchanged). This revision was due to the integration of new data and to the revision of existing indicators.

To go further

Next publication: February 25, 2021 at 08:45 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 434 Ko)

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