Informations Rapides ·
20 January 2022 · n° 17
In January 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has faltered a little but
remains favourable Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has barely deteriorated between November and January. The composite indicator has lost one point and stands at 113, after reaching its highest level since 2000 in November. This slight decline is mainly due to the fall in the balances of opinion related to ordering intentions and the general business outlook for the sector, partly offset by the rise in the one on received deliveries from abroad.
- The balance of wholesalers’ opinion on ordering intentions has fallen back but remains high
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have fallen but remain at high levels
- The volumes of received deliveries are more often considered to be on the rise
- Wholesalers have confirmed their optimism on employment prospects
- For further information
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has barely deteriorated between November and January. The composite indicator has lost one point and stands at 113, after reaching its highest level since 2000 in November. This slight decline is mainly due to the fall in the balances of opinion related to ordering intentions and the general business outlook for the sector, partly offset by the rise in the one on received deliveries from abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-B1 | 113.1 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.0 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.2 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.7 |
| 2021-B3 | 109.3 |
| 2021-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 87.5 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.9 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.3 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.6 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.8 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2019-B3 | 106.8 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.1 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.8 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.1 |
| 2018-B3 | 103.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 107.0 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.4 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.4 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.7 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.1 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.3 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.8 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.7 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 91.0 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.8 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.4 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.9 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.3 |
| 2013-B1 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.1 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.9 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 96.0 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.6 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.0 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.3 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.8 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.5 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.5 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.1 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.0 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.9 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.6 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.9 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.9 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.6 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.2 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.5 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.4 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.3 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.1 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.5 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.8 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.1 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.6 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 99.0 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.9 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balance of wholesalers’ opinion on ordering intentions has fallen back but remains high
In January 2022, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on ordering intentions has fallen back sharply after reaching in November 2021 a level not seen since the start of the series (1979). This decrease concerns all the sub-sectors except that of food and drink products. Similarly, the balance of opinion on ordering intentions from abroad has fallen after a high level in November. All sub-sectors are affected by this decline with the exception of food and drink products, for which this balance is stable. These two balances nevertheless remain well above their average.
The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector has fallen back sharply, but remains well above its average. This decrease concerns all sub-sectors, except the one of information and communication equipment.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have fallen but remain at high levels
The balances of opinion on past and expected development in selling prices have fallen after reaching last November levels not seen since the 1980s.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-B1 | 33.2 |
| 2021-B6 | 38.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 30.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.1 |
| 2021-B3 | 29.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 20.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 7.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -4.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 1.6 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.2 |
| 2020-B3 | -1.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 0.3 |
| 2020-B1 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 7.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 1.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 4.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.6 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.6 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 8.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.6 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 2.0 |
| 2017-B4 | 3.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.4 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The volumes of received deliveries are more often considered to be on the rise
The balance of wholesalers’ opinion regarding the volumes of received deliveries over the past two months has risen again and has reached a level not observed since 2001. The increase concerns all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, with the exception of agricultural products and other specialised wholesale trade. The balance relating specifically to received merchandise from abroad has also increased and stands at its highest since 2007. All sub-sectors, except the agricultural products sector, have seen their balance increase.
The balances of wholesalers' opinion on their past activity (sales volumes and sales abroad) are stable overall and stand at levels not seen since the 2000s.
Wholesalers have confirmed their optimism on employment prospects
The balances of opinion on the past and expected change in the workforce size remain at high levels. The first one remains at its highest level since 2001, while the second one remains virtually at the level observed in November 2021, unprecedented since the beginning of this series (1979).
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | July-21 | Sept.-21 | Nov. 21 | Jan.-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 113 | 109 | 114 | 113 |
| General business outlook | -22 | 19 | 15 | 15 | -3 |
| Sales | -14 | 3 | -5 | 5 | 5 |
| export sales | -15 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -1 | -7 | 2 | 3 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -4 | -12 | -6 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -2 | -3 | 6 | -1 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -10 | -5 | -6 | -5 |
| Stocks | 8 | -4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Cash position | -9 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 35 | 32 | 41 | 40 |
| Expected selling prices | 14 | 32 | 31 | 38 | 33 |
- * : average since july 1979
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | July-21 | Sept.-21 | Nov.-21 | Jan.-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -21 | -11 | 5 | -5 |
| Export sales | -16 | -23 | -7 | -3 | -17 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -22 | -36 | -8 | -29 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -7 | -7 | -3 | -6 |
| Current stock | 5 | -7 | -7 | 2 | 1 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -8 | -30 | -14 | -9 |
| Export sales | -12 | -6 | -26 | -12 | -4 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -22 | -24 | -17 | -8 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -10 | 0 | -8 | -7 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 0 | 6 | -6 | -4 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | 0 | -4 | -3 | 13 |
| Export sales | -11 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | 5 | -11 | -12 | 4 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Current stock | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | 30 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| Export sales | -11 | 35 | 24 | 21 | 44 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | 37 | 20 | 12 | 22 |
| Ordering intentions | -9 | 33 | 17 | 20 | 4 |
| Current stock | 8 | -27 | -15 | -25 | -24 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | 15 | -1 | 3 | 11 |
| Export sales | -21 | -11 | -14 | -13 | -11 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -8 | -19 | -21 | -2 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| Current stock | 11 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 12 |
| Export sales | -19 | -21 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -1 | -15 | 1 | 5 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -5 |
| Current stock | 6 | -9 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
- * : average since july 1979
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-B1 | 18.2 | 10.9 |
| 2021-B6 | 10.6 | 2.9 |
| 2021-B5 | 14.2 | -0.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 29.8 | 14.5 |
| 2021-B3 | 32.7 | 13.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 19.6 | -3.0 |
| 2021-B1 | 0.3 | -19.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 9.3 | -31.2 |
| 2020-B5 | 10.3 | -28.6 |
| 2020-B4 | -54.4 | -56.0 |
| 2020-B3 | -54.9 | -84.6 |
| 2020-B2 | -6.6 | -14.1 |
| 2020-B1 | -18.1 | -9.2 |
| 2019-B6 | -6.7 | -4.8 |
| 2019-B5 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2019-B4 | -18.1 | -4.1 |
| 2019-B3 | 11.6 | -1.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 18.2 | -3.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -20.3 | -15.2 |
| 2018-B6 | 4.4 | -9.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.7 | -7.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 10.1 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B3 | 2.1 | -5.2 |
| 2018-B2 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| 2018-B1 | -12.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B6 | -8.4 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B5 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B3 | -6.2 | -7.0 |
| 2017-B2 | -7.5 | -12.4 |
| 2017-B1 | -7.3 | -15.4 |
| 2016-B6 | -12.9 | -19.2 |
| 2016-B5 | -5.1 | -24.9 |
| 2016-B4 | 1.6 | -16.9 |
| 2016-B3 | -10.1 | -17.6 |
| 2016-B2 | -1.4 | -21.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 1.4 | -17.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -9.1 | -27.8 |
| 2015-B5 | -4.8 | -25.0 |
| 2015-B4 | -1.6 | -22.3 |
| 2015-B3 | 4.3 | -28.8 |
| 2015-B2 | -8.9 | -33.1 |
| 2015-B1 | -11.6 | -35.2 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.4 | -38.5 |
| 2014-B5 | -25.3 | -41.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -7.5 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B3 | -14.1 | -27.4 |
| 2014-B2 | -15.8 | -20.1 |
| 2014-B1 | -27.5 | -27.4 |
| 2013-B6 | -12.7 | -25.7 |
| 2013-B5 | -18.0 | -30.9 |
| 2013-B4 | -37.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B3 | -17.6 | -38.0 |
| 2013-B2 | -13.7 | -33.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -36.3 | -41.1 |
| 2012-B6 | -31.0 | -36.8 |
| 2012-B5 | -17.4 | -28.3 |
| 2012-B4 | -20.7 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B3 | -23.3 | -28.9 |
| 2012-B2 | -17.2 | -15.6 |
| 2012-B1 | -11.5 | -11.7 |
| 2011-B6 | -28.6 | -12.8 |
| 2011-B5 | -7.8 | -0.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
| 2011-B2 | -12.4 | 1.7 |
| 2011-B1 | 15.3 | -16.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.0 | -18.1 |
| 2010-B5 | 18.6 | -16.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 31.2 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B3 | 0.3 | -40.4 |
| 2010-B2 | -37.2 | -57.6 |
| 2010-B1 | -12.8 | -56.3 |
| 2009-B6 | -21.4 | -68.1 |
| 2009-B5 | -57.6 | -70.2 |
| 2009-B4 | -61.3 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.2 | -67.9 |
| 2009-B2 | -61.5 | -74.3 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.1 | -56.6 |
| 2008-B6 | -16.2 | -35.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -11.9 | -20.9 |
| 2008-B4 | -5.4 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B3 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| 2008-B2 | -6.6 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B1 | -23.1 | 5.5 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 December 2021 and 17 January 2022.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 24 March 2022 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 December 2021 and 17 January 2022.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 24 March 2022 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade