Informations Rapides · 24 November 2021 · n° 298

In November 2021, the business climate has been pushed upwards by order-books Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2021, the business climate in manufacturing industry has improved compared to the previous month. At 109, the composite indicator has gained two points and remains well above its average (100). This increase is first and foremost explained by the rise in the balance on foreign order-books and to a lesser extent by the rise in the balances on overall order-books and on expected production. In addition, the balance on the expected trend in selling prices, already very high, has increased very strongly this month.

In November 2021, many more manufacturers than in the previous month have indicated that their foreign order-books have been superior to normal. The relative balance of opinion, strongly on the rise, has exceeded by a lot its long-term average and has reached its highest level since July 2018. The improvement in this balance is particularly significant in the branch of other transport equipment, where it had been very deteriorated since April 2020. The balance on overall order books has grown again, thanks notably to the other transport equipment branch, and remains well above its average there too.

After two months of moderate fall, the balance on the personal production expectations has picked up, without returning to its level of last August. It remains well above its average. However, the balance on the change in production over the last three months has deteriorated for the third consecutive month. Nevertheless, it remains slightly above its long-term average.

Manufacturers have made a judgment almost as favourable as in October over the general production prospects in the industrial sector. The related balance of opinion is much higher than on average.

The balance on the level of the finished-goods inventories is still well below its average, even though it has slightly rebounded this month.

Finally, the balances of opinion on the expected and past variation in the workforce size have been stable or nearly, at a high level.

In November 2021, the balance on the expected change in selling prices has steeply grown, even though it had remained at an already very high level since May 2021. Thus, the series, available since 1990, have reached a new historical high point.

Meanwhile, business managers do not seem to have more difficulty predicting how their business situation will develop. The balance measuring the degree of economic uncertainty felt has even somewhat declined this month.

The business climate in the branch of transport equipment has improved for the second month in a row. At 97, it has gained five points compared to the previous month and has come closer to its average (100). Specifically, the climate in the sub-sector of other transport equipment has strongly risen. In contrast, it has distinctly deteriorated in the motor vehicles industry where it has moved away from its average level.

In the so-called "other industries", the business climate has rebounded after a drop last month. The increase in the balances on past and expected production and on foreign order books explains this improvement.

The business climate of the manufacture of food products and beverages has again improved. It has widely exceeded its average level. The personal production prospects are particularly dynamic there, after a decline in this balance last month.

Finally, in the machinery and equipment goods industries, the business climate has remained at a very high level. In particular, the balances on order books have strongly grown in the sub-sector of the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products.