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Informations Rapides · 21 October 2021 · n° 270
Informations rapidesIn October 2021, the business climate in manufacturing has been stable Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2021

According to the industry business managers surveyed in October 2021, the business climate has been stable compared to the previous month. At 107, the composite indicator of the sector remains above its average (100). The balances of opinions on order books have improved while the ones regarding production, be it past or expected, have slightly dropped.

Informations rapides
No 270
Paru le :Paru le21/10/2021
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
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The balances of opinion resulting from the question on economic uncertainty felt, asked in the survey since April 2021, are published as from this month. Besides, the secondary weights of the survey have been updated this month. The detail of these informations is available in the tab “Documentation”

According to the industry business managers surveyed in October 2021, the business climate has been stable compared to the previous month. At 107, the composite indicator of the sector remains above its average (100). The balances of opinions on order books have improved while the ones regarding production, be it past or expected, have slightly dropped.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.7
2005-05 97.1
2005-06 99.1
2005-07 100.2
2005-08 99.7
2005-09 99.0
2005-10 101.2
2005-11 101.1
2005-12 104.2
2006-01 103.2
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 109.0
2006-08 108.6
2006-09 108.2
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.4
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.4
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.3
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.2
2008-06 103.5
2008-07 98.8
2008-08 98.1
2008-09 91.7
2008-10 87.2
2008-11 79.9
2008-12 73.5
2009-01 72.7
2009-02 68.6
2009-03 66.7
2009-04 70.7
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.0
2009-07 76.5
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 84.1
2009-10 85.3
2009-11 87.6
2009-12 87.5
2010-01 90.3
2010-02 88.8
2010-03 91.2
2010-04 95.1
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 95.8
2010-07 97.3
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.0
2010-10 104.2
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 107.0
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.2
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.3
2011-10 97.5
2011-11 97.6
2011-12 94.8
2012-01 95.0
2012-02 95.0
2012-03 96.6
2012-04 95.7
2012-05 94.9
2012-06 93.2
2012-07 91.2
2012-08 93.0
2012-09 92.8
2012-10 87.2
2012-11 91.8
2012-12 91.0
2013-01 89.9
2013-02 90.7
2013-03 90.7
2013-04 87.8
2013-05 92.2
2013-06 92.8
2013-07 94.8
2013-08 98.6
2013-09 96.0
2013-10 98.0
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.4
2014-01 99.7
2014-02 98.4
2014-03 100.9
2014-04 100.4
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.7
2014-07 96.4
2014-08 96.7
2014-09 97.0
2014-10 97.5
2014-11 99.0
2014-12 98.8
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.6
2015-03 99.1
2015-04 101.6
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.6
2015-08 103.6
2015-09 104.9
2015-10 103.3
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.7
2016-01 102.9
2016-02 103.1
2016-03 102.7
2016-04 104.8
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 101.7
2016-08 101.6
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.2
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.8
2017-01 106.1
2017-02 106.8
2017-03 105.7
2017-04 108.6
2017-05 108.8
2017-06 109.0
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.1
2017-09 111.0
2017-10 111.1
2017-11 111.6
2017-12 111.9
2018-01 113.8
2018-02 112.6
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.5
2018-05 109.8
2018-06 109.7
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 108.8
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.3
2018-11 105.2
2018-12 103.7
2019-01 103.6
2019-02 103.6
2019-03 103.4
2019-04 101.4
2019-05 103.8
2019-06 101.9
2019-07 101.3
2019-08 102.2
2019-09 101.6
2019-10 99.6
2019-11 102.0
2019-12 99.5
2020-01 102.8
2020-02 101.1
2020-03 97.5
2020-04 66.9
2020-05 70.4
2020-06 77.6
2020-07 81.9
2020-08 91.6
2020-09 94.3
2020-10 94.2
2020-11 91.9
2020-12 95.4
2021-01 96.5
2021-02 98.2
2021-03 98.6
2021-04 103.6
2021-05 107.1
2021-06 107.9
2021-07 109.3
2021-08 109.6
2021-09 106.6
2021-10 107.1

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Jul. 21 Aug. 21 Sep. 21 Oct. 21
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 109 110 107 107
Past production 5 16 21 12 11
Finished-goods inventory 12 -6 -1 3 -2
Overall order books -18 -4 -8 -9 -6
Foreign order books -15 -12 -11 -17 -15
Past workforce size -9 -1 -1 -2 5
Expected workforce size -11 6 8 10 10
Personal production expectations 5 19 24 18 17
General production expectations -8 20 16 22 21
Expected trend in selling prices 2 25 26 28 27
Economic uncertainty felt** 25 23 23 23 24
  • * Long-term average since 1976 except for the economic uncertainty felt (April 2021). ** Balance of opinion not CVS
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

The balances of opinion on order books are on the rise again

In October 2021, the balance on the overall order books has bounced back after having decreased during the past two months. It remains therefore above its long-term average. The balance on the foreign order books has slightly picked up and has reached its own. Moreover, more manufacturers than last month consider the level of their finished-goods inventories to be lower than the seasonal normal.

The balance of opinion on the expected variation in the workforce size has been stable at a high level. The one on the past variation in the workforce size has bounced back sharply and reached its highest level since April 2019.

The manufacturers’ opinion about the past and expected change in their production has deteriorated a little

Manufacturers have tempered their personal production prospects. The relative balance has diminished for the second month in a row, slightly this month. The manufacturers’ opinion on their past production as well has dropped very slightly. These two balances remain above their average.

Likewise, the balance of opinions on the general production outlook in industry has slightly fallen this month. It remains largely above its average. As for the degree of economic uncertainty felt, it has been virtually stable since June 2021.

Finally, the balance on the general level of the prices of industrial output during the next three months has been virtually stable, well above its average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate remains deteriorated but has recovered a little

In October 2021, the business climate in the manufacture of transport equipment has picked up. At 92, it has gained three points compared to the previous month, while remaining below its average (100). This improvement is related to the branch of "other transport equipment", where the climate, very deteriorated for many months, has somewhat rebounded with the increase in the balances on order books. In the motor vehicles industry in contrast, the climate has been stable, at its average level.

The business climate has slightly picked up in the manufacture of food products where it lies well above its average. The balances on order books have mainly contributed to this rise.

In the branch of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has been stable at a very high level. The balance on the production over the last three months has vigorously grown.

Only the climate of the so-called "other industries" has slightly weakened, while remaining well above its average. The balances on the past and expected production have spearheaded this small dip. However, the climate of the sub-branch “manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products” has been on the rise.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.1 104.9 105.5 104.9
2011-02 107.4 103.0 100.1 108.1
2011-03 106.5 107.3 106.6 109.4
2011-04 108.9 105.4 106.2 109.7
2011-05 109.6 104.0 105.6 107.4
2011-06 108.3 105.0 109.8 108.6
2011-07 111.2 103.1 104.3 104.7
2011-08 103.3 101.0 102.2 100.2
2011-09 101.7 99.9 99.3 98.0
2011-10 104.3 98.6 100.6 96.3
2011-11 102.0 96.3 102.5 94.2
2011-12 98.2 96.6 100.4 94.5
2012-01 99.6 96.4 95.3 94.1
2012-02 100.2 96.4 94.2 95.9
2012-03 102.2 97.0 103.3 97.1
2012-04 98.9 96.5 94.5 97.7
2012-05 93.3 95.1 95.4 95.8
2012-06 94.8 91.4 96.1 93.7
2012-07 94.4 91.2 95.5 92.3
2012-08 93.5 90.7 95.7 93.5
2012-09 96.6 91.4 97.5 93.7
2012-10 90.9 86.4 96.0 89.5
2012-11 98.1 87.7 93.2 92.3
2012-12 98.7 88.2 92.8 91.9
2013-01 97.5 88.2 92.9 91.4
2013-02 97.9 89.2 94.8 90.3
2013-03 94.0 89.4 94.3 91.3
2013-04 91.7 90.2 93.4 89.3
2013-05 91.4 90.1 95.3 91.9
2013-06 92.5 89.6 95.3 93.2
2013-07 92.2 90.2 99.2 94.9
2013-08 95.3 92.3 101.8 97.0
2013-09 94.8 90.6 98.1 97.1
2013-10 95.3 91.0 104.0 97.6
2013-11 98.1 93.2 102.4 98.6
2013-12 98.4 92.4 100.4 99.0
2014-01 99.4 91.8 102.9 98.6
2014-02 99.1 94.4 98.5 98.2
2014-03 99.8 93.2 101.2 102.3
2014-04 95.8 93.0 103.2 100.1
2014-05 98.0 94.2 98.8 99.4
2014-06 95.6 92.3 98.6 98.4
2014-07 96.9 89.9 99.7 99.0
2014-08 95.2 93.9 98.3 100.5
2014-09 94.3 92.7 101.2 97.2
2014-10 95.5 93.1 97.7 98.4
2014-11 96.0 92.7 100.5 99.7
2014-12 99.0 92.7 100.2 100.1
2015-01 103.2 94.0 102.1 99.6
2015-02 99.3 95.6 101.6 100.1
2015-03 100.6 94.6 105.7 100.0
2015-04 104.5 97.1 107.4 100.5
2015-05 102.0 97.6 105.3 101.4
2015-06 105.0 97.6 105.5 100.7
2015-07 108.5 98.8 105.2 102.6
2015-08 103.1 97.9 108.1 101.3
2015-09 105.5 96.7 109.4 102.4
2015-10 104.3 98.7 108.1 99.7
2015-11 102.2 100.1 108.1 99.4
2015-12 99.7 98.6 108.1 101.5
2016-01 101.7 101.1 108.4 99.4
2016-02 100.1 101.1 109.3 99.8
2016-03 101.3 99.6 106.3 101.0
2016-04 105.8 100.6 109.5 101.1
2016-05 103.2 98.1 106.4 103.6
2016-06 103.0 97.7 106.3 101.3
2016-07 104.4 98.2 105.5 101.5
2016-08 99.2 98.7 104.2 101.3
2016-09 108.8 98.9 105.6 100.3
2016-10 106.6 98.0 106.1 101.1
2016-11 107.8 100.2 102.7 101.4
2016-12 108.4 104.0 104.9 104.7
2017-01 103.8 102.8 107.2 105.3
2017-02 105.5 104.3 106.8 106.1
2017-03 104.1 105.1 105.9 104.7
2017-04 103.7 107.4 106.4 107.7
2017-05 106.0 109.2 105.9 107.0
2017-06 111.7 108.6 105.6 108.2
2017-07 108.8 109.2 108.7 106.6
2017-08 108.7 107.0 108.8 108.1
2017-09 107.3 107.6 109.7 108.3
2017-10 111.0 109.8 108.9 110.2
2017-11 112.3 109.9 109.5 110.9
2017-12 110.7 111.4 110.7 110.4
2018-01 111.2 112.8 112.6 110.8
2018-02 110.1 111.1 112.6 109.8
2018-03 108.7 110.3 111.7 109.3
2018-04 109.1 110.2 112.8 107.5
2018-05 107.9 111.5 108.5 107.5
2018-06 110.4 108.1 110.2 105.5
2018-07 107.7 108.3 106.4 106.3
2018-08 107.8 108.3 106.8 105.6
2018-09 107.1 107.5 105.5 104.7
2018-10 102.3 107.0 104.0 102.8
2018-11 109.5 102.2 104.3 102.8
2018-12 107.5 102.5 102.9 102.5
2019-01 107.6 103.6 103.1 102.1
2019-02 108.3 105.0 101.2 101.2
2019-03 106.3 101.1 103.0 101.4
2019-04 106.4 101.5 101.4 100.8
2019-05 111.8 104.5 102.9 102.0
2019-06 108.8 99.1 101.0 100.6
2019-07 104.5 103.1 99.6 100.3
2019-08 108.4 100.1 101.5 101.5
2019-09 107.8 99.7 101.5 101.3
2019-10 105.4 96.7 100.9 99.0
2019-11 103.9 98.1 105.7 101.0
2019-12 107.6 97.6 99.8 98.1
2020-01 107.6 101.1 106.1 99.5
2020-02 107.7 99.8 100.7 100.3
2020-03 107.0 98.4 96.2 97.3
2020-04 91.7 77.0 73.7 73.6
2020-05 90.4 76.2 76.0 74.3
2020-06 92.8 79.1 77.6 79.1
2020-07 89.3 85.4 80.8 81.5
2020-08 96.3 92.0 91.8 87.7
2020-09 102.5 91.6 92.6 92.5
2020-10 93.7 94.9 91.9 94.8
2020-11 92.6 92.0 90.0 94.9
2020-12 89.8 96.6 88.4 102.0
2021-01 89.7 105.1 88.8 100.6
2021-02 94.2 106.4 91.3 101.5
2021-03 100.7 107.1 85.0 104.2
2021-04 104.4 113.9 89.8 107.3
2021-05 115.3 112.2 91.3 109.8
2021-06 119.0 115.6 91.0 110.6
2021-07 114.7 115.7 93.2 114.1
2021-08 111.6 120.4 93.8 112.5
2021-09 109.5 115.8 89.3 112.2
2021-10 110.7 116.2 91.9 110.5

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Aug. 21 Sep. 21 Oct. 21
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 20 112 110 111
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 120 116 116
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 115 109 111
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 124 120 116
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 116 115 116
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 94 89 92
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 106 100 100
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 82 81 84
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 112 112 111
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 118 117 116
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 115 120 120
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 105 107 104
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 108 110 110
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 109 107 110
[CM] Other manufacturing industries / Manufacture of other industrial products 9 116 116 115
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing in September 2021 has been revised upwards by one point, mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from some companies.

For further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 September and 18 October 2021.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)

Methodology note (in French) (pdf,174 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 September and 18 October 2021.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 8:45 am.

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