Informations Rapides ·
21 October 2021 · n° 274
In October 2021, the business climate has improved sharply in services Monthly survey of services - October 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2021, the business climate has improved sharply in services. At 114, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 4 points and has reached the highest point of the series since December 2000, well above its long-term average (100).
Since October 2021, new qualitative questions on investment have been introduced on a quarterly, half-yearly or annual basis, as part of the harmonisation of European business tendency surveys. At the same time and in return, several questions have been removed, among the least used for short-term economic analysis, in order to alleviate the statistical response burden on companies. Finally, the balances of opinions resulting from the new question on economic uncertainty felt, asked since April 2021, are published from this month onwards. Further details are available in the "Documentation" tab.
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2021, the business climate has improved sharply in services. At 114, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has gained 4 points and has reached the highest point of the series since December 2000, well above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.7 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.4 |
| 2005-04 | 108.1 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.5 |
| 2005-07 | 107.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.5 |
| 2005-09 | 107.1 |
| 2005-10 | 108.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-12 | 106.9 |
| 2006-01 | 108.7 |
| 2006-02 | 106.4 |
| 2006-03 | 107.7 |
| 2006-04 | 108.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-08 | 110.5 |
| 2006-09 | 110.6 |
| 2006-10 | 110.9 |
| 2006-11 | 113.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.4 |
| 2007-01 | 110.9 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.2 |
| 2007-04 | 112.9 |
| 2007-05 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.5 |
| 2007-07 | 113.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.5 |
| 2007-10 | 110.2 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.8 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.4 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 102.0 |
| 2008-07 | 97.8 |
| 2008-08 | 96.3 |
| 2008-09 | 94.4 |
| 2008-10 | 86.1 |
| 2008-11 | 82.2 |
| 2008-12 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.7 |
| 2009-02 | 75.5 |
| 2009-03 | 70.5 |
| 2009-04 | 70.6 |
| 2009-05 | 74.5 |
| 2009-06 | 79.0 |
| 2009-07 | 82.5 |
| 2009-08 | 85.0 |
| 2009-09 | 88.2 |
| 2009-10 | 91.2 |
| 2009-11 | 92.6 |
| 2009-12 | 93.1 |
| 2010-01 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.7 |
| 2010-03 | 94.9 |
| 2010-04 | 98.0 |
| 2010-05 | 99.6 |
| 2010-06 | 98.7 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 101.0 |
| 2010-09 | 101.9 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.3 |
| 2011-03 | 110.5 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 107.9 |
| 2011-06 | 107.4 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.1 |
| 2011-09 | 99.0 |
| 2011-10 | 98.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.9 |
| 2011-12 | 95.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.7 |
| 2012-02 | 93.1 |
| 2012-03 | 94.4 |
| 2012-04 | 96.3 |
| 2012-05 | 92.9 |
| 2012-06 | 90.9 |
| 2012-07 | 90.5 |
| 2012-08 | 88.5 |
| 2012-09 | 88.3 |
| 2012-10 | 87.1 |
| 2012-11 | 86.5 |
| 2012-12 | 88.1 |
| 2013-01 | 89.1 |
| 2013-02 | 87.9 |
| 2013-03 | 85.1 |
| 2013-04 | 84.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.7 |
| 2013-06 | 86.9 |
| 2013-07 | 87.4 |
| 2013-08 | 89.3 |
| 2013-09 | 92.8 |
| 2013-10 | 92.3 |
| 2013-11 | 93.0 |
| 2013-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-01 | 92.9 |
| 2014-02 | 92.7 |
| 2014-03 | 93.5 |
| 2014-04 | 93.8 |
| 2014-05 | 92.8 |
| 2014-06 | 92.8 |
| 2014-07 | 93.1 |
| 2014-08 | 92.2 |
| 2014-09 | 91.6 |
| 2014-10 | 91.9 |
| 2014-11 | 91.9 |
| 2014-12 | 91.9 |
| 2015-01 | 91.7 |
| 2015-02 | 92.1 |
| 2015-03 | 92.9 |
| 2015-04 | 94.4 |
| 2015-05 | 95.9 |
| 2015-06 | 97.2 |
| 2015-07 | 97.9 |
| 2015-08 | 99.0 |
| 2015-09 | 97.9 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-11 | 99.6 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2016-01 | 100.3 |
| 2016-02 | 100.2 |
| 2016-03 | 99.8 |
| 2016-04 | 98.7 |
| 2016-05 | 101.0 |
| 2016-06 | 99.4 |
| 2016-07 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 100.9 |
| 2016-11 | 101.1 |
| 2016-12 | 103.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.9 |
| 2017-02 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.3 |
| 2017-05 | 102.8 |
| 2017-06 | 103.5 |
| 2017-07 | 104.0 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 106.6 |
| 2017-10 | 106.8 |
| 2017-11 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.6 |
| 2018-01 | 107.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.8 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.7 |
| 2018-07 | 104.5 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.6 |
| 2018-10 | 103.4 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-12 | 102.2 |
| 2019-01 | 103.7 |
| 2019-02 | 103.8 |
| 2019-03 | 104.8 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 105.6 |
| 2019-06 | 105.9 |
| 2019-07 | 105.2 |
| 2019-08 | 105.2 |
| 2019-09 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.1 |
| 2020-03 | 93.1 |
| 2020-04 | 41.9 |
| 2020-05 | 51.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.0 |
| 2020-07 | 88.8 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-09 | 94.5 |
| 2020-10 | 88.9 |
| 2020-11 | 78.1 |
| 2020-12 | 90.1 |
| 2021-01 | 91.5 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 93.9 |
| 2021-04 | 91.7 |
| 2021-05 | 106.4 |
| 2021-06 | 111.8 |
| 2021-07 | 111.0 |
| 2021-08 | 108.6 |
| 2021-09 | 110.0 |
| 2021-10 | 114.2 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ optimism has increased
In October 2021, the business managers are very optimistic overall and more confident than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity has improved sharply again and stands well above its average; moreover, the one on economic uncertainty felt has decreased. Concerning their own activity, the balance of opinion of business managers on expected demand has improved sharply again, the one on expected activity has also increased again. Both balances stand well above their long-term average.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has also improved and further exceeded its average.
More business managers than in the previous month have reported that they had increased their sales prices over the last three months: the balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has bounced back. The one on the expected change in selling prices is stable. Both stand above their average.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last three months has bounced back, especially in services except temporary work agencies, and has returned to its average level. Concerning the balance on expected workforce size, it has increased very sharply, mainly due to temporary work agencies and has further exceeded its average. Besides, many more business managers than in July have reported difficulties in recruitment: this proportion stands far above its average level. This is the highest point since the beginning of the series (July 2000).
The balance of opinion on expected investment has increased sharply compared to July and has exceeded its average.
Among the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, fewer business managers than in July have reported demand difficulties, while the share of those experiencing supply difficulties has increased.
The balance on the cash position has increased sharply compared to July and has further exceeded its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | July 2021 | Aug. 2021 | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 111 | 109 | 110 | 114 |
| General outlook | -7 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| Past activity | 1 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| Expected activity | 1 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| Expected demand | -1 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Past employment | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Cash position | -11 | -9 | -5 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | 10 | 7 | 8 | ||
| difficulties of supply only (in %) | 23 | 25 | 29 | ||
| difficulties of demand only (in %) | 30 | 22 | 15 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment (in %) | 29 | 40 | 51 | ||
| Expected investments | 3 | 3 | 8 | ||
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 15 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 6 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate is favourable in all services sub-sectors
In October 2021, the business climate stands well above its average in all services sub-sectors and has improved in most of them.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has recovered strongly. At 115, the indicator that synthetizes it has gained 6 points and stands well above its average. The forward-looking balances have improved in this sub-sector, especially about expected demand.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has improved sharply again and has reached its highest level since January 1990. It therefore stands well above its average level. Expected demand has also increased strongly in this sub-sector.
The business climate has also improved in administrative and support services. It has further exceeded its average. In particular, the forward-looking balances have improved sharply.
In road freight transport and in information-communication, the business climate has improved slightly. It is stable in real estate activities. The forward-looking balances of those sub-sectors stand above their respective average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | July 2021 | Aug. 2021 | Sep. 2021 | Oct. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 107 | 112 | 113 |
| Past activity | -6 | 13 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -3 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -4 | 4 | 19 | 17 |
| Past employment | -6 | -3 | -8 | 0 | -5 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| General outlook | -18 | -1 | -2 | 7 | 6 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 129 | 114 | 109 | 115 |
| Past activity | -8 | 3 | 27 | 29 | 33 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Expected demand | -10 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| Past employment | -5 | -4 | -8 | -10 | 4 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 14 | -2 | 10 | 11 |
| General outlook | -15 | 40 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 108 | 109 | 110 |
| Past activity | 7 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| Past employment | 6 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 7 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 16 | 23 | 27 | 21 |
| General outlook | 0 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 18 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 113 | 113 | 110 | 110 |
| Past activity | 6 | 11 | 21 | 20 | 13 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Past employment | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| General outlook | -4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 108 | 112 | 117 |
| Past activity | -1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| Past employment | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| General outlook | -9 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 110 | 104 | 107 | 113 |
| Past activity | 5 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 18 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 18 | 6 | 16 | 21 |
| Past employment | 8 | 5 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| General outlook | -4 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 19 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 September 2021 and 18 October 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,275 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 27 September 2021 and 18 October 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 8:45 am