Informations Rapides ·
21 October 2021 · n° 275
In October 2021, the French business climate and the employment climate have improved Business indicator - October 2021
In October 2021, the business climate has improved again. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders from the main market sectors of activity, has gained 2 points. At 113, it has returned to the particularly high level already reached in June 2021. It therefore remains significantly above the level prevailing before the health crisis (106) and, even more so, above its long-term average (100). This further improvement of the business climate results mainly from the increase in the forward-looking balances of opinion in services.
The selection of balances of opinion included in the computation of the French business climate has been revised at the occasion of tendency business surveys of October 2021. This selection has been realigned on the balances selected in sectoral business climates, including the new composite indicator in the building industry. As a result, some slight revisions can be observed on past data. The methodology underlining the employment climate remains unchanged. Further details are available in the "Documentation" tab.
Version modified on 3 December 2021 (new business climate in building construction).
In October 2021, the business climate indicator in France has gone up, mainly because of services
In October 2021, the business climate has improved again. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders from the main market sectors of activity, has gained 2 points. At 113, it has returned to the particularly high level already reached in June 2021. It therefore remains significantly above the level prevailing before the health crisis (106) and, even more so, above its long-term average (100). This further improvement of the business climate results mainly from the increase in the forward-looking balances of opinion in services.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 103.9 |
| 2005-02 | 104.2 |
| 2005-03 | 104.3 |
| 2005-04 | 103.4 |
| 2005-05 | 101.0 |
| 2005-06 | 101.9 |
| 2005-07 | 101.7 |
| 2005-08 | 101.6 |
| 2005-09 | 101.0 |
| 2005-10 | 103.9 |
| 2005-11 | 103.4 |
| 2005-12 | 104.9 |
| 2006-01 | 106.3 |
| 2006-02 | 103.9 |
| 2006-03 | 104.3 |
| 2006-04 | 104.8 |
| 2006-05 | 106.6 |
| 2006-06 | 106.3 |
| 2006-07 | 108.3 |
| 2006-08 | 108.8 |
| 2006-09 | 109.3 |
| 2006-10 | 109.5 |
| 2006-11 | 111.0 |
| 2006-12 | 109.6 |
| 2007-01 | 109.7 |
| 2007-02 | 111.4 |
| 2007-03 | 111.8 |
| 2007-04 | 112.4 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-06 | 113.5 |
| 2007-07 | 112.6 |
| 2007-08 | 111.7 |
| 2007-09 | 111.1 |
| 2007-10 | 109.7 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 110.0 |
| 2008-01 | 109.4 |
| 2008-02 | 108.3 |
| 2008-03 | 108.2 |
| 2008-04 | 106.2 |
| 2008-05 | 103.5 |
| 2008-06 | 100.4 |
| 2008-07 | 97.0 |
| 2008-08 | 95.5 |
| 2008-09 | 93.0 |
| 2008-10 | 84.1 |
| 2008-11 | 80.2 |
| 2008-12 | 77.5 |
| 2009-01 | 75.8 |
| 2009-02 | 74.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.1 |
| 2009-04 | 71.9 |
| 2009-05 | 74.6 |
| 2009-06 | 77.9 |
| 2009-07 | 79.8 |
| 2009-08 | 83.0 |
| 2009-09 | 85.8 |
| 2009-10 | 88.4 |
| 2009-11 | 90.1 |
| 2009-12 | 90.3 |
| 2010-01 | 91.9 |
| 2010-02 | 92.5 |
| 2010-03 | 91.9 |
| 2010-04 | 95.6 |
| 2010-05 | 96.9 |
| 2010-06 | 96.5 |
| 2010-07 | 98.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.4 |
| 2010-09 | 102.4 |
| 2010-10 | 104.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 108.8 |
| 2011-03 | 109.3 |
| 2011-04 | 108.6 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.7 |
| 2011-07 | 106.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-10 | 97.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.9 |
| 2011-12 | 95.0 |
| 2012-01 | 93.7 |
| 2012-02 | 93.5 |
| 2012-03 | 96.0 |
| 2012-04 | 97.5 |
| 2012-05 | 93.4 |
| 2012-06 | 92.2 |
| 2012-07 | 91.0 |
| 2012-08 | 90.1 |
| 2012-09 | 88.6 |
| 2012-10 | 86.9 |
| 2012-11 | 88.1 |
| 2012-12 | 88.8 |
| 2013-01 | 88.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.3 |
| 2013-03 | 86.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 87.1 |
| 2013-07 | 88.8 |
| 2013-08 | 92.0 |
| 2013-09 | 95.6 |
| 2013-10 | 95.4 |
| 2013-11 | 94.7 |
| 2013-12 | 94.3 |
| 2014-01 | 95.5 |
| 2014-02 | 95.1 |
| 2014-03 | 96.2 |
| 2014-04 | 96.2 |
| 2014-05 | 95.7 |
| 2014-06 | 95.0 |
| 2014-07 | 94.4 |
| 2014-08 | 93.0 |
| 2014-09 | 92.0 |
| 2014-10 | 92.0 |
| 2014-11 | 93.8 |
| 2014-12 | 94.0 |
| 2015-01 | 94.8 |
| 2015-02 | 95.8 |
| 2015-03 | 96.9 |
| 2015-04 | 98.2 |
| 2015-05 | 99.2 |
| 2015-06 | 100.5 |
| 2015-07 | 101.0 |
| 2015-08 | 102.6 |
| 2015-09 | 102.0 |
| 2015-10 | 102.8 |
| 2015-11 | 102.7 |
| 2015-12 | 101.5 |
| 2016-01 | 103.9 |
| 2016-02 | 102.9 |
| 2016-03 | 102.8 |
| 2016-04 | 102.3 |
| 2016-05 | 104.2 |
| 2016-06 | 102.9 |
| 2016-07 | 103.8 |
| 2016-08 | 103.5 |
| 2016-09 | 103.6 |
| 2016-10 | 103.9 |
| 2016-11 | 103.7 |
| 2016-12 | 106.1 |
| 2017-01 | 106.1 |
| 2017-02 | 106.8 |
| 2017-03 | 106.6 |
| 2017-04 | 107.1 |
| 2017-05 | 107.5 |
| 2017-06 | 108.6 |
| 2017-07 | 109.7 |
| 2017-08 | 110.4 |
| 2017-09 | 110.6 |
| 2017-10 | 110.5 |
| 2017-11 | 111.6 |
| 2017-12 | 112.7 |
| 2018-01 | 112.3 |
| 2018-02 | 111.3 |
| 2018-03 | 111.1 |
| 2018-04 | 110.5 |
| 2018-05 | 108.8 |
| 2018-06 | 108.4 |
| 2018-07 | 108.0 |
| 2018-08 | 107.5 |
| 2018-09 | 106.9 |
| 2018-10 | 105.9 |
| 2018-11 | 106.3 |
| 2018-12 | 103.3 |
| 2019-01 | 103.8 |
| 2019-02 | 104.3 |
| 2019-03 | 105.6 |
| 2019-04 | 106.3 |
| 2019-05 | 106.3 |
| 2019-06 | 106.0 |
| 2019-07 | 105.5 |
| 2019-08 | 105.4 |
| 2019-09 | 106.1 |
| 2019-10 | 106.0 |
| 2019-11 | 106.1 |
| 2019-12 | 105.9 |
| 2020-01 | 105.8 |
| 2020-02 | 105.6 |
| 2020-03 | 93.9 |
| 2020-04 | 48.0 |
| 2020-05 | 59.6 |
| 2020-06 | 83.8 |
| 2020-07 | 90.1 |
| 2020-08 | 93.6 |
| 2020-09 | 93.2 |
| 2020-10 | 90.0 |
| 2020-11 | 78.3 |
| 2020-12 | 92.3 |
| 2021-01 | 93.4 |
| 2021-02 | 90.9 |
| 2021-03 | 97.5 |
| 2021-04 | 95.6 |
| 2021-05 | 109.2 |
| 2021-06 | 113.5 |
| 2021-07 | 112.1 |
| 2021-08 | 109.9 |
| 2021-09 | 110.6 |
| 2021-10 | 113.4 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
In all main economic sectors, the business climate remains well above its long-term average.
In services, the business climate has improved sharply. This improvement is mainly driven by increases in balances of opinions regarding the general outlook of the sector, expected demand and expected activity.
In retail trade, the business climate has gone up slightly. This improvement is explained for the most part by the increases in the forward-looking balances of opinion, partly counterbalanced by the decrease in the balances regarding past sales and employment.
In manufacturing, the business climate has been stable. The balances of opinion on expected order books have improved, while the ones concerning production, past and expected, have weakened in a context of strong constraints on supply.
In construction, the business climate remains stable at a high level, despite persistently strong pressures on production capacities.
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| June 21 | July 21 | Aug. 21 | Sept. 21 | Oct. 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 113 | 112 | 110 | 111 | 113 |
| Manufacturing | 108 | 109 | 110 | 107 | 107 |
| Building construction | 112 | 112 | 113 | 113 | 113 |
| Services | 112 | 111 | 109 | 110 | 114 |
| Retail trade | 116 | 114 | 109 | 106 | 107 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 113 | - | 110 | - |
| Employment | 105 | 107 | 108 | 106 | 111 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The employment climate has rebounded strongly
The employment climate has rebounded markedly in October (+5 points) to reach 111. It therefore remains well above its long-term average (100) and has hit its highest point since June 2011. Although all sectors contribute to this increase, it is mainly due to the strong rebound in the balances of opinion of past trend in employment in the services sector (excluding temporary employment agencies), and to the increase in the one concerning expected employment in temporary work agencies.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 102.1 |
| 2005-02 | 101.9 |
| 2005-03 | 104.4 |
| 2005-04 | 101.9 |
| 2005-05 | 102.6 |
| 2005-06 | 102.1 |
| 2005-07 | 102.7 |
| 2005-08 | 103.3 |
| 2005-09 | 103.6 |
| 2005-10 | 104.0 |
| 2005-11 | 103.9 |
| 2005-12 | 103.3 |
| 2006-01 | 104.1 |
| 2006-02 | 104.3 |
| 2006-03 | 104.8 |
| 2006-04 | 107.0 |
| 2006-05 | 108.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.9 |
| 2006-07 | 109.8 |
| 2006-08 | 109.1 |
| 2006-09 | 108.1 |
| 2006-10 | 108.9 |
| 2006-11 | 110.4 |
| 2006-12 | 111.0 |
| 2007-01 | 109.5 |
| 2007-02 | 111.3 |
| 2007-03 | 111.2 |
| 2007-04 | 111.8 |
| 2007-05 | 113.3 |
| 2007-06 | 112.9 |
| 2007-07 | 111.1 |
| 2007-08 | 112.4 |
| 2007-09 | 113.2 |
| 2007-10 | 111.7 |
| 2007-11 | 113.1 |
| 2007-12 | 114.7 |
| 2008-01 | 113.9 |
| 2008-02 | 114.0 |
| 2008-03 | 112.5 |
| 2008-04 | 112.7 |
| 2008-05 | 108.4 |
| 2008-06 | 105.2 |
| 2008-07 | 105.4 |
| 2008-08 | 101.2 |
| 2008-09 | 99.9 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-11 | 88.5 |
| 2008-12 | 83.4 |
| 2009-01 | 81.2 |
| 2009-02 | 79.4 |
| 2009-03 | 74.0 |
| 2009-04 | 74.6 |
| 2009-05 | 73.7 |
| 2009-06 | 74.9 |
| 2009-07 | 78.6 |
| 2009-08 | 83.2 |
| 2009-09 | 82.6 |
| 2009-10 | 84.6 |
| 2009-11 | 86.9 |
| 2009-12 | 89.1 |
| 2010-01 | 90.4 |
| 2010-02 | 91.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.5 |
| 2010-04 | 95.7 |
| 2010-05 | 97.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.9 |
| 2010-07 | 99.3 |
| 2010-08 | 99.6 |
| 2010-09 | 101.4 |
| 2010-10 | 103.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.1 |
| 2010-12 | 105.7 |
| 2011-01 | 104.7 |
| 2011-02 | 110.4 |
| 2011-03 | 109.8 |
| 2011-04 | 110.0 |
| 2011-05 | 111.4 |
| 2011-06 | 111.7 |
| 2011-07 | 109.9 |
| 2011-08 | 105.9 |
| 2011-09 | 103.9 |
| 2011-10 | 101.3 |
| 2011-11 | 101.1 |
| 2011-12 | 99.4 |
| 2012-01 | 98.4 |
| 2012-02 | 97.9 |
| 2012-03 | 99.6 |
| 2012-04 | 98.2 |
| 2012-05 | 95.9 |
| 2012-06 | 94.5 |
| 2012-07 | 93.3 |
| 2012-08 | 94.0 |
| 2012-09 | 91.6 |
| 2012-10 | 92.1 |
| 2012-11 | 90.7 |
| 2012-12 | 90.3 |
| 2013-01 | 93.0 |
| 2013-02 | 89.7 |
| 2013-03 | 89.0 |
| 2013-04 | 87.7 |
| 2013-05 | 87.3 |
| 2013-06 | 89.6 |
| 2013-07 | 91.0 |
| 2013-08 | 91.3 |
| 2013-09 | 93.0 |
| 2013-10 | 95.3 |
| 2013-11 | 93.8 |
| 2013-12 | 95.8 |
| 2014-01 | 95.9 |
| 2014-02 | 95.2 |
| 2014-03 | 95.9 |
| 2014-04 | 98.3 |
| 2014-05 | 97.4 |
| 2014-06 | 95.8 |
| 2014-07 | 96.4 |
| 2014-08 | 95.0 |
| 2014-09 | 95.2 |
| 2014-10 | 95.0 |
| 2014-11 | 95.0 |
| 2014-12 | 95.0 |
| 2015-01 | 94.3 |
| 2015-02 | 96.4 |
| 2015-03 | 96.1 |
| 2015-04 | 97.9 |
| 2015-05 | 97.9 |
| 2015-06 | 99.6 |
| 2015-07 | 100.1 |
| 2015-08 | 100.8 |
| 2015-09 | 100.6 |
| 2015-10 | 100.8 |
| 2015-11 | 102.2 |
| 2015-12 | 101.0 |
| 2016-01 | 102.3 |
| 2016-02 | 101.1 |
| 2016-03 | 100.3 |
| 2016-04 | 101.1 |
| 2016-05 | 102.6 |
| 2016-06 | 102.0 |
| 2016-07 | 104.1 |
| 2016-08 | 103.6 |
| 2016-09 | 104.6 |
| 2016-10 | 104.9 |
| 2016-11 | 105.0 |
| 2016-12 | 106.7 |
| 2017-01 | 105.5 |
| 2017-02 | 105.1 |
| 2017-03 | 107.8 |
| 2017-04 | 106.7 |
| 2017-05 | 107.6 |
| 2017-06 | 108.1 |
| 2017-07 | 107.9 |
| 2017-08 | 106.1 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 108.4 |
| 2017-11 | 108.4 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 109.7 |
| 2018-02 | 110.4 |
| 2018-03 | 110.5 |
| 2018-04 | 109.5 |
| 2018-05 | 109.6 |
| 2018-06 | 110.4 |
| 2018-07 | 108.6 |
| 2018-08 | 107.9 |
| 2018-09 | 107.5 |
| 2018-10 | 107.0 |
| 2018-11 | 105.2 |
| 2018-12 | 105.1 |
| 2019-01 | 105.5 |
| 2019-02 | 107.6 |
| 2019-03 | 108.2 |
| 2019-04 | 107.9 |
| 2019-05 | 105.9 |
| 2019-06 | 106.9 |
| 2019-07 | 106.4 |
| 2019-08 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 106.2 |
| 2019-10 | 105.4 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 105.4 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-03 | 97.8 |
| 2020-04 | 52.5 |
| 2020-05 | 56.0 |
| 2020-06 | 68.0 |
| 2020-07 | 76.8 |
| 2020-08 | 88.1 |
| 2020-09 | 92.5 |
| 2020-10 | 89.4 |
| 2020-11 | 85.6 |
| 2020-12 | 87.1 |
| 2021-01 | 88.8 |
| 2021-02 | 86.9 |
| 2021-03 | 93.3 |
| 2021-04 | 93.0 |
| 2021-05 | 100.5 |
| 2021-06 | 104.8 |
| 2021-07 | 107.5 |
| 2021-08 | 107.8 |
| 2021-09 | 105.5 |
| 2021-10 | 110.9 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The business climate indicator in manufacturing in September 2021 has been revised upwards by one point. This revision is mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 30 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 27 September and 18 October 2021.
Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 08:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Methodology note (in French) (pdf,245 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 30 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
The responses to these surveys were collected between 27 September and 18 October 2021.
Next issue: 24 November 2021 at 08:45 am.