Informations Rapides · 23 September 2021 · n° 239

In September 2021, the business climate in industry has decreased Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2021

According to the industry business managers surveyed in September 2021, the business climate has decreased compared to the previous month. At 106, the composite indicator of the sector has lost four points but remains above its average (100). Its decrease is first and foremost explained by the marked drop in the balances of opinion on past production and on foreign order-books. The fall in the balance on expected production has also contributed to it. Only the general production prospects in industry have contributed positively to the change in the business climate.

In September 2021, the manufacturers’ balances of opinion relative to their past and future production have diminished. The balance on production over the last three months has fallen sharply compared to August, back to its March 2021 level, although above its average. The balance on expected production has also decreased but has remained at a high level.

Conversely, the business managers deem the general production outlook for the good-producing industries to be dynamic. The relative balance of opinion has bounced back in September and stands at a much higher level than usual.

Finally, as many business leaders as in August anticipate a rise in their selling prices over the coming months. The relative balance has been stabilising since July at a very high level, after having surged from January to May 2021.

The manufacturers’ judgment on the level of their overall order-books has been virtually stable this month, after a decrease in August, and has remained well above its average. The balance on the foreign order books has in turn fallen back and has even returned below its average. This balance has slumped in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers especially.

The balance on the finished-goods inventories has increased for the second month in a row: more manufacturers than last month consider the level of their inventories to be greater than the seasonal normal. Nevertheless, this balance has remained well below its average level.

The business managers in manufacturing industry have reported dynamic employment prospects. The balance on the expected variation in the workforce size over the next three months has grown for the fifth month in a row. It has reached a level unseen since 2001. The balance of opinion on the past change in the workforce size does not follow the same path: this balance has slightly deteriorated after having been steady last month. However, it has remained above its average.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has fallen back quite markedly in September 2021, whereas it had tended to increase since April. It has thus moved further away from its pre-crisis level. This fall stems mainly from the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry. There the climate has deteriorated noticeably, dragged down by the sharp contraction in the balances on foreign order books and on expected production. The business climate of the other transport equipment branch has been somewhat weaker than in August, whereas it had been improving slightly over the past five months. It remains very deteriorated.

Likewise, the business climate in machinery and equipment goods industries has declined after having reached a very high level last month. In this branch too, the drop in the balances on foreign order-books and on expected production has weighed down the business climate. This deterioration has been particularly pronounced in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products.

In the so-called "other industries", the business climate has weakened a little for the second consecutive month but has remained well above its average. It has worsened in the basic metals and fabricated metal products industry and in the manufacture of textiles, clothing and leather. However, it has improved in the other sub-branches. In the so-called other manufacturing industries sub-branch, which includes the repair and installation of machinery and equipment, the business climate has even reached its highest level since March 2008.

Finally, the business climate of the manufacture of food products and beverages has receded again, though more slightly than in the past two months. It has been especially affected by the large drop in the balance on past production. Nevertheless, at 111, the business climate for this branch has remained well above its average level.