Informations Rapides ·
22 April 2021 · n° 103
In April 2021, the business climate has deteriorated in services Monthly survey of services - April 2021
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2021, the business climate in services has deteriorated At 91, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has lost 3 points and therefore remains below its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2021, the business climate in services has deteriorated At 91, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has lost 3 points and therefore remains below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.7 |
| 2005-03 | 108.6 |
| 2005-04 | 108.3 |
| 2005-05 | 106.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.6 |
| 2005-07 | 108.0 |
| 2005-08 | 107.7 |
| 2005-09 | 107.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.8 |
| 2005-11 | 106.8 |
| 2005-12 | 107.1 |
| 2006-01 | 109.0 |
| 2006-02 | 106.6 |
| 2006-03 | 107.9 |
| 2006-04 | 108.2 |
| 2006-05 | 110.7 |
| 2006-06 | 109.4 |
| 2006-07 | 110.6 |
| 2006-08 | 110.7 |
| 2006-09 | 110.9 |
| 2006-10 | 111.1 |
| 2006-11 | 113.2 |
| 2006-12 | 111.7 |
| 2007-01 | 111.2 |
| 2007-02 | 112.5 |
| 2007-03 | 113.5 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-06 | 112.8 |
| 2007-07 | 113.3 |
| 2007-08 | 112.5 |
| 2007-09 | 111.7 |
| 2007-10 | 110.4 |
| 2007-11 | 110.5 |
| 2007-12 | 109.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.8 |
| 2008-02 | 109.0 |
| 2008-03 | 109.1 |
| 2008-04 | 107.6 |
| 2008-05 | 105.2 |
| 2008-06 | 102.1 |
| 2008-07 | 98.0 |
| 2008-08 | 96.5 |
| 2008-09 | 94.6 |
| 2008-10 | 86.3 |
| 2008-11 | 82.4 |
| 2008-12 | 79.3 |
| 2009-01 | 76.8 |
| 2009-02 | 75.7 |
| 2009-03 | 70.7 |
| 2009-04 | 70.8 |
| 2009-05 | 74.7 |
| 2009-06 | 79.2 |
| 2009-07 | 82.7 |
| 2009-08 | 85.3 |
| 2009-09 | 88.4 |
| 2009-10 | 91.4 |
| 2009-11 | 92.8 |
| 2009-12 | 93.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.7 |
| 2010-02 | 94.9 |
| 2010-03 | 95.1 |
| 2010-04 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.8 |
| 2010-06 | 99.0 |
| 2010-07 | 99.8 |
| 2010-08 | 101.3 |
| 2010-09 | 102.2 |
| 2010-10 | 103.5 |
| 2010-11 | 105.3 |
| 2010-12 | 107.2 |
| 2011-01 | 107.5 |
| 2011-02 | 109.6 |
| 2011-03 | 110.7 |
| 2011-04 | 109.4 |
| 2011-05 | 108.2 |
| 2011-06 | 107.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.7 |
| 2011-08 | 101.4 |
| 2011-09 | 99.3 |
| 2011-10 | 98.2 |
| 2011-11 | 96.1 |
| 2011-12 | 95.8 |
| 2012-01 | 94.0 |
| 2012-02 | 93.3 |
| 2012-03 | 94.7 |
| 2012-04 | 96.6 |
| 2012-05 | 93.1 |
| 2012-06 | 91.2 |
| 2012-07 | 90.7 |
| 2012-08 | 88.7 |
| 2012-09 | 88.4 |
| 2012-10 | 87.3 |
| 2012-11 | 86.8 |
| 2012-12 | 88.3 |
| 2013-01 | 89.2 |
| 2013-02 | 88.1 |
| 2013-03 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 84.5 |
| 2013-05 | 85.9 |
| 2013-06 | 87.1 |
| 2013-07 | 87.6 |
| 2013-08 | 89.5 |
| 2013-09 | 93.0 |
| 2013-10 | 92.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.2 |
| 2013-12 | 91.8 |
| 2014-01 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 93.0 |
| 2014-03 | 93.8 |
| 2014-04 | 94.1 |
| 2014-05 | 93.1 |
| 2014-06 | 93.1 |
| 2014-07 | 93.4 |
| 2014-08 | 92.4 |
| 2014-09 | 91.9 |
| 2014-10 | 92.2 |
| 2014-11 | 92.1 |
| 2014-12 | 92.2 |
| 2015-01 | 92.0 |
| 2015-02 | 92.3 |
| 2015-03 | 93.1 |
| 2015-04 | 94.6 |
| 2015-05 | 96.1 |
| 2015-06 | 97.5 |
| 2015-07 | 98.1 |
| 2015-08 | 99.2 |
| 2015-09 | 98.2 |
| 2015-10 | 100.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.8 |
| 2016-01 | 100.6 |
| 2016-02 | 100.4 |
| 2016-03 | 100.1 |
| 2016-04 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 101.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.7 |
| 2016-07 | 100.9 |
| 2016-08 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 101.3 |
| 2016-10 | 101.3 |
| 2016-11 | 101.4 |
| 2016-12 | 104.0 |
| 2017-01 | 102.2 |
| 2017-02 | 103.2 |
| 2017-03 | 103.7 |
| 2017-04 | 103.6 |
| 2017-05 | 103.2 |
| 2017-06 | 104.0 |
| 2017-07 | 104.3 |
| 2017-08 | 106.2 |
| 2017-09 | 107.0 |
| 2017-10 | 107.1 |
| 2017-11 | 107.7 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 108.0 |
| 2018-02 | 106.8 |
| 2018-03 | 107.1 |
| 2018-04 | 106.2 |
| 2018-05 | 104.7 |
| 2018-06 | 105.2 |
| 2018-07 | 104.8 |
| 2018-08 | 104.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.9 |
| 2018-10 | 103.7 |
| 2018-11 | 104.2 |
| 2018-12 | 102.6 |
| 2019-01 | 103.9 |
| 2019-02 | 103.8 |
| 2019-03 | 105.0 |
| 2019-04 | 105.8 |
| 2019-05 | 106.2 |
| 2019-06 | 106.6 |
| 2019-07 | 105.5 |
| 2019-08 | 105.1 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 106.1 |
| 2019-11 | 106.5 |
| 2019-12 | 106.9 |
| 2020-01 | 106.5 |
| 2020-02 | 106.2 |
| 2020-03 | 93.3 |
| 2020-04 | 42.2 |
| 2020-05 | 52.4 |
| 2020-06 | 78.6 |
| 2020-07 | 88.7 |
| 2020-08 | 93.4 |
| 2020-09 | 94.7 |
| 2020-10 | 89.1 |
| 2020-11 | 78.3 |
| 2020-12 | 90.3 |
| 2021-01 | 91.7 |
| 2021-02 | 88.5 |
| 2021-03 | 94.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.2 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator

- Source: INSEE
Business managers’ expectations have darkened
In April 2021, business leaders are more pessimistic overall than in the previous month. The balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity has fallen back sharply; it has moved away from its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand for the next three months have also decreased and the gap to their respective average has widened.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has improved again in April but without returning to its long-term average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices has barely recovered and the one on the expected change in selling prices is stable. They remain below their average level.
About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in worforce size over the last three months is virtually stable and the balance on expected workforce size has edged down. They remain below their average. Besides, more business leaders than in January have reported difficulties in recruitment: this proportion stands slightly below its average level.
The balance of opinion on past investment is stable and remains below its average level. The one on expected investment has fallen back and also remains below its average level.
Among the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, business managers have reported more often difficulties related to demand than to supply as since July 2020. However, fewer than in January have reported demand difficulties, while the share of those experiencing supply difficulties is virtually stable since the beginning of the year.
In comparison with January, the balance of opinion on the expected operating balance result is virtually stable and the one on the past operating balance result has increased in April.
The balance on the cash position has increased compared to January but remains below its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Jan. 2021 | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 89 | 94 | 91 |
| General outlook | -8 | -16 | -21 | -9 | -14 |
| Past activity | 1 | -12 | -9 | -8 | -5 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -7 | -12 | -8 | -14 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -8 | -12 | -6 | -9 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -9 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -9 | -11 | -8 | -8 |
| Past employment | 2 | -9 | -16 | -12 | -14 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -20 | -20 | -14 | -11 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -11 | -8 | -6 | -7 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -16 | -16 | -10 | -10 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -12 | -8 | -6 | -6 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -11 | -10 | -7 | -10 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | -2 | -23 | -10 | ||
| Expected result | -3 | -18 | -17 | ||
| Cash position | -11 | -18 | -15 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 10 | 9 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 23 | 20 | 21 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 30 | 29 | 25 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 23 | 27 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated especially in accommodation and food services
In April 2021, the business climate in services has varied in contrasting ways in service sub-sectors: it has dropped back in accommodation and food services while it has continued to rise above its average in the road freight transport.
In accommodation and food services, a sub-sector among the most affected by the health measures, the business climate has deteriorated sharply. At 73, the indicator has lost 5 points and stands at a particularly low level.
In professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate has also deteriorated: in those two sectors, the composite indicator has lost 3 points after a brief improvement in March, and stands well below its average.
On the other hand, in the road freight transport, the business climate has improved again, above its long-term average. In information and communication too, the business climate has improved and has returned above its average.
In real estate activities, the business climate is virtually stable and stands just above its average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Jan. 2021 | Feb. 2021 | Mar. 2021 | Apr. 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 95 | 97 | 102 | 104 |
| Past activity | -6 | -9 | -6 | -10 | 7 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -18 | -18 | -6 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -19 | -12 | -6 | -3 |
| Past employment | -6 | -1 | 0 | -5 | -10 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -19 | -12 | -3 | -1 |
| General outlook | -19 | -22 | -21 | -4 | -6 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 73 | 67 | 78 | 73 |
| Past activity | -8 | -70 | -57 | -39 | -43 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -44 | -54 | -38 | -47 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -33 | -49 | -40 | -46 |
| Past employment | -5 | -58 | -47 | -32 | -30 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -36 | -42 | -26 | -25 |
| General outlook | -15 | -55 | -65 | -44 | -56 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 96 | 99 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 15 | 8 | 11 | -5 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 |
| Past employment | 6 | -8 | -16 | -8 | 13 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| General outlook | 0 | -3 | -9 | 1 | -1 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 88 | 92 | 102 | 101 |
| Past activity | 6 | -6 | -7 | 4 | -3 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -8 | -1 | 7 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -4 | -4 | 7 | 10 |
| Past employment | 2 | -4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -8 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| General outlook | -4 | -14 | -15 | -5 | -5 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 89 | 93 | 90 |
| Past activity | -1 | -13 | -13 | -15 | -12 |
| Expected activity | -3 | -12 | -15 | -14 | -17 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -18 | -19 | -11 | -13 |
| Past employment | 0 | -13 | -14 | -16 | -13 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -15 | -10 | -8 | -16 |
| General outlook | -9 | -14 | -18 | -10 | -17 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 86 | 91 | 88 |
| Past activity | 5 | -10 | -11 | -14 | -15 |
| Expected activity | 4 | -5 | -12 | -11 | -12 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -8 | -16 | -7 | -12 |
| Past employment | 8 | 17 | -7 | -5 | -21 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -8 |
| General outlook | -4 | -16 | -24 | -12 | -14 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator of March 2021 has been revised downwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 March and 19 April 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 2 6 May 2021 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 March and 19 April 2021.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 2 6 May 2021 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services