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Informations rapides · 21 January 2021 · n° 016
Informations rapidesIn January, the production capacity rate in industry has slightly increased againQuarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2021

In January 2021, the production capacity utilisation rate in industry has grown slightly. It has gained 2 points compared to October 2020 and has reached 79%, which is below its long-term average (83).

Informations rapides
No 016
Paru le : Paru le 21/01/2021
Prochaine parution le : 22/04/2021 at 08:45 - April 2021

The production capacity rate has grown slightly

In January 2021, the production capacity utilisation rate in industry has grown slightly. It has gained 2 points compared to October 2020 and has reached 79%, which is below its long-term average (83).

Production capacity utilisation rate

Production capacity utilisation rate
Production capacity utilisation rate
1998-Q1 83.0
1998-Q2 83.3
1998-Q3 84.6
1998-Q4 83.3
1999-Q1 84.0
1999-Q2 83.0
1999-Q3 83.5
1999-Q4 84.3
2000-Q1 83.8
2000-Q2 85.0
2000-Q3 85.5
2000-Q4 86.1
2001-Q1 86.2
2001-Q2 85.8
2001-Q3 84.9
2001-Q4 84.2
2002-Q1 84.1
2002-Q2 85.0
2002-Q3 84.1
2002-Q4 83.3
2003-Q1 83.4
2003-Q2 82.7
2003-Q3 82.6
2003-Q4 82.2
2004-Q1 82.7
2004-Q2 82.6
2004-Q3 82.8
2004-Q4 82.9
2005-Q1 82.7
2005-Q2 82.6
2005-Q3 82.8
2005-Q4 82.4
2006-Q1 83.4
2006-Q2 84.2
2006-Q3 85.1
2006-Q4 85.6
2007-Q1 84.8
2007-Q2 85.9
2007-Q3 85.9
2007-Q4 86.7
2008-Q1 86.4
2008-Q2 85.5
2008-Q3 84.9
2008-Q4 83.2
2009-Q1 75.4
2009-Q2 72.2
2009-Q3 73.3
2009-Q4 75.4
2010-Q1 75.2
2010-Q2 77.5
2010-Q3 77.9
2010-Q4 79.5
2011-Q1 80.7
2011-Q2 82.6
2011-Q3 82.5
2011-Q4 82.6
2012-Q1 81.3
2012-Q2 81.4
2012-Q3 80.5
2012-Q4 80.4
2013-Q1 80.9
2013-Q2 80.4
2013-Q3 80.2
2013-Q4 80.4
2014-Q1 80.7
2014-Q2 80.5
2014-Q3 81.9
2014-Q4 80.8
2015-Q1 80.8
2015-Q2 82.3
2015-Q3 82.0
2015-Q4 82.3
2016-Q1 81.0
2016-Q2 82.3
2016-Q3 83.5
2016-Q4 83.0
2017-Q1 84.0
2017-Q2 83.8
2017-Q3 84.6
2017-Q4 84.6
2018-Q1 85.9
2018-Q2 85.3
2018-Q3 85.4
2018-Q4 85.1
2019-Q1 84.9
2019-Q2 84.6
2019-Q3 83.7
2019-Q4 83.1
2020-Q1 82.8
2020-Q2 60.5
2020-Q3 74.5
2020-Q4 77.4
2021-Q1 79.3

Production capacity utilisation rate

  • Source: INSEE

The opinion of industrialists on past demand has been relatively unaffected by the second lockdown...

After a large rebound in October 2020, the balances of opinion on variation in demand over the last three months, overall and abroad, have declined a little in January despite the lockdown that took effect during the considered period. The balance of opinion on the past change in overall demand has lost 5 points while the balance on past change in foreign demand has increased by 4 points.

… but the prospects remain dull

However, demand prospects remain dull. After a slight dip between July and October 2020, the balance of opinion on expected change in overall demand has increased a little (+2 points between October and January). The balance of opinion on expected change in foreign demand has increased slightly more (+5 points). The one on general exportation expectations has also, again, grown a little. These three balances remain below their long-term average.

In addition, industrialists have been broadly as many as last quarter to report difficulties of demand, while the proportion of industrialists reporting supply difficulties has slightly grown.

Opinion on global demand

Opinion on global demand
Past change Expected change
1998-Q1 26.6 14.4
1998-Q2 18.6 12.4
1998-Q3 18.0 11.9
1998-Q4 11.9 0.3
1999-Q1 4.5 -1.3
1999-Q2 -1.7 2.4
1999-Q3 13.2 11.9
1999-Q4 23.8 21.9
2000-Q1 30.3 15.1
2000-Q2 32.7 18.1
2000-Q3 28.6 20.4
2000-Q4 33.2 22.7
2001-Q1 11.9 15.3
2001-Q2 9.1 2.8
2001-Q3 -0.4 1.1
2001-Q4 -12.1 -13.3
2002-Q1 -23.8 -4.6
2002-Q2 -10.4 5.4
2002-Q3 -8.0 -1.8
2002-Q4 -19.2 -6.6
2003-Q1 -6.3 -1.6
2003-Q2 -22.0 -10.8
2003-Q3 -19.8 -7.8
2003-Q4 -9.1 1.4
2004-Q1 0.1 7.5
2004-Q2 10.0 9.1
2004-Q3 12.8 10.1
2004-Q4 8.5 14.4
2005-Q1 16.9 6.3
2005-Q2 -3.6 1.3
2005-Q3 2.0 5.5
2005-Q4 2.5 10.0
2006-Q1 14.8 7.4
2006-Q2 16.4 12.9
2006-Q3 13.1 9.4
2006-Q4 15.9 13.7
2007-Q1 13.2 10.6
2007-Q2 17.4 10.3
2007-Q3 23.1 14.6
2007-Q4 17.7 16.0
2008-Q1 16.5 13.8
2008-Q2 14.7 9.0
2008-Q3 -8.3 -13.1
2008-Q4 -21.7 -24.3
2009-Q1 -42.2 -36.4
2009-Q2 -53.1 -27.7
2009-Q3 -23.4 -11.8
2009-Q4 -12.0 -1.8
2010-Q1 9.4 -0.1
2010-Q2 6.3 2.1
2010-Q3 18.3 1.3
2010-Q4 17.3 10.9
2011-Q1 25.0 10.1
2011-Q2 20.8 8.6
2011-Q3 14.5 6.3
2011-Q4 0.7 -4.1
2012-Q1 -4.4 -7.4
2012-Q2 -2.7 3.4
2012-Q3 -16.0 -9.5
2012-Q4 -16.8 -7.5
2013-Q1 -15.5 -8.2
2013-Q2 -24.2 -4.3
2013-Q3 -10.5 -5.1
2013-Q4 -2.1 1.6
2014-Q1 2.7 2.7
2014-Q2 6.2 6.4
2014-Q3 -5.7 3.6
2014-Q4 -2.1 3.4
2015-Q1 -3.8 0.7
2015-Q2 4.1 6.5
2015-Q3 1.2 5.1
2015-Q4 5.4 6.8
2016-Q1 2.0 3.9
2016-Q2 12.9 7.7
2016-Q3 11.7 4.8
2016-Q4 4.5 7.4
2017-Q1 11.5 7.3
2017-Q2 10.4 8.9
2017-Q3 16.2 11.1
2017-Q4 18.8 17.1
2018-Q1 21.1 16.2
2018-Q2 17.6 13.8
2018-Q3 9.5 9.0
2018-Q4 -0.8 7.0
2019-Q1 1.7 11.1
2019-Q2 2.7 4.0
2019-Q3 -1.6 2.5
2019-Q4 3.4 -0.1
2020-Q1 -2.6 5.2
2020-Q2 -26.9 -64.6
2020-Q3 -43.6 6.8
2020-Q4 6.6 -3.7
2021-Q1 2.0 -2.4

Opinion on global demand

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion: demand and production factors

Balance of opinion, in % SA
Industrialists’ opinion: demand and production factors (Balance of opinion, in % SA)
Manufacturing industry Mean Apr. 20 Jul. 20 Oct. 20 Jan. 21
Overall demand
Past change 0 -27 -44 7 2
Expected change 1 -65 7 -4 -2
Foreign demand
Past change 2 -32 -57 -9 -5
Expected change 3 -70 -10 -13 -8
Production factors
Production bottlenecks (in %) 23 29 27 28 27
Assessment of productive capacity 13 28 11 16 12
Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) 83 61 74 77 79
Difficulties of supply and demand (in %)
Difficulties of supply and demand 9 27 11 14 15
Difficulties of supply only 20 34 22 16 18
Difficulties of demand only 42 23 39 31 30
  • * : Long-term average since 1976, expect for supply and demand (since 1991).
  • The results of the latest survey are preliminary
  • Sources : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

The balances of opinion on employment prospects have returned above their average

From October 2020 to January 2021, the balance of opinion on change in workforce size, both past and expected, have improved and caught up with their long-term average. The balance on the change in workforce size over the past three months has risen by 4 points compared to October and now stands at its average level. The balance on expected change has gained 4 points too, returning above its long term average. Hiring difficulties declared by industrialists have increased marginally compared to last quarter. This balance is also above its average level.

Finally, the share of industrialists that report to encounter cash-flow problems has significantly dropped in January.

Opinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry

Opinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
Expected change Past change
1998-01 -6.5 -1.5
1998-02 NaN NaN
1998-03 NaN NaN
1998-04 -6.1 1.9
1998-05 NaN NaN
1998-06 NaN NaN
1998-07 -5.3 1.0
1998-08 NaN NaN
1998-09 NaN NaN
1998-10 -6.6 -1.7
1998-11 NaN NaN
1998-12 NaN NaN
1999-01 -7.2 -4.4
1999-02 NaN NaN
1999-03 NaN NaN
1999-04 -8.7 -7.5
1999-05 NaN NaN
1999-06 NaN NaN
1999-07 -5.6 -6.7
1999-08 NaN NaN
1999-09 NaN NaN
1999-10 1.6 7.1
1999-11 NaN NaN
1999-12 NaN NaN
2000-01 7.1 5.9
2000-02 NaN NaN
2000-03 NaN NaN
2000-04 6.1 6.4
2000-05 NaN NaN
2000-06 NaN NaN
2000-07 10.8 13.8
2000-08 NaN NaN
2000-09 NaN NaN
2000-10 13.0 15.6
2000-11 NaN NaN
2000-12 NaN NaN
2001-01 9.9 17.6
2001-02 NaN NaN
2001-03 NaN NaN
2001-04 6.2 9.6
2001-05 NaN NaN
2001-06 NaN NaN
2001-07 0.5 6.8
2001-08 NaN NaN
2001-09 NaN NaN
2001-10 -10.4 0.0
2001-11 NaN NaN
2001-12 NaN NaN
2002-01 -11.9 -8.6
2002-02 NaN NaN
2002-03 NaN NaN
2002-04 -8.1 -9.0
2002-05 NaN NaN
2002-06 NaN NaN
2002-07 -7.1 -9.6
2002-08 NaN NaN
2002-09 NaN NaN
2002-10 -13.4 -12.7
2002-11 NaN NaN
2002-12 NaN NaN
2003-01 -10.0 -15.3
2003-02 -17.9 -16.4
2003-03 -17.7 -14.3
2003-04 -18.1 -13.5
2003-05 -17.8 -17.7
2003-06 -23.2 -15.8
2003-07 -21.5 -18.1
2003-08 -21.5 -17.0
2003-09 -21.7 -16.2
2003-10 -20.1 -19.1
2003-11 -21.0 -18.9
2003-12 -21.4 -18.5
2004-01 -16.7 -17.1
2004-02 -18.1 -15.6
2004-03 -14.3 -15.4
2004-04 -12.7 -13.9
2004-05 -11.1 -13.9
2004-06 -12.8 -13.6
2004-07 -12.6 -12.5
2004-08 -12.0 -11.7
2004-09 -11.8 -10.9
2004-10 -11.7 -10.1
2004-11 -15.7 -9.0
2004-12 -16.1 -12.3
2005-01 -15.3 -10.7
2005-02 -15.8 -12.2
2005-03 -13.0 -12.7
2005-04 -16.9 -15.4
2005-05 -16.8 -13.2
2005-06 -15.0 -12.3
2005-07 -12.4 -12.7
2005-08 -12.2 -12.4
2005-09 -12.7 -12.1
2005-10 -14.2 -10.2
2005-11 -11.4 -9.6
2005-12 -12.1 -9.5
2006-01 -12.4 -9.5
2006-02 -9.5 -9.5
2006-03 -8.7 -7.5
2006-04 -8.1 -7.6
2006-05 -7.7 -5.8
2006-06 -7.5 -3.4
2006-07 -5.8 -2.9
2006-08 -5.6 -3.0
2006-09 -6.7 -3.1
2006-10 -6.0 -0.7
2006-11 -5.6 -4.4
2006-12 -4.5 -4.4
2007-01 -3.0 -4.9
2007-02 -3.3 -1.1
2007-03 -3.8 -0.5
2007-04 -2.1 1.9
2007-05 -1.7 2.4
2007-06 -1.7 2.2
2007-07 -3.4 0.6
2007-08 -0.9 1.0
2007-09 -0.5 1.2
2007-10 2.0 2.9
2007-11 2.4 3.6
2007-12 2.3 4.4
2008-01 1.8 5.3
2008-02 1.1 2.9
2008-03 -0.1 5.4
2008-04 0.0 3.5
2008-05 -4.8 -0.4
2008-06 -6.4 -2.2
2008-07 -9.0 -3.4
2008-08 -12.6 -5.3
2008-09 -15.2 -7.1
2008-10 -18.2 -8.1
2008-11 -29.2 -19.0
2008-12 -37.2 -23.7
2009-01 -35.1 -25.4
2009-02 -38.3 -31.2
2009-03 -40.8 -33.5
2009-04 -37.7 -34.5
2009-05 -35.5 -38.2
2009-06 -35.5 -38.5
2009-07 -30.1 -38.2
2009-08 -28.4 -31.9
2009-09 -27.7 -33.6
2009-10 -25.4 -31.0
2009-11 -22.5 -26.5
2009-12 -21.7 -25.1
2010-01 -18.7 -23.8
2010-02 -18.0 -21.1
2010-03 -17.4 -19.7
2010-04 -15.9 -18.6
2010-05 -12.2 -12.8
2010-06 -10.2 -10.0
2010-07 -9.2 -9.5
2010-08 -9.2 -7.5
2010-09 -2.9 -6.5
2010-10 -3.1 -3.6
2010-11 -1.4 0.3
2010-12 0.8 0.0
2011-01 1.4 -0.6
2011-02 3.4 1.9
2011-03 5.0 6.6
2011-04 2.0 6.8
2011-05 4.3 8.4
2011-06 7.3 11.6
2011-07 4.0 9.2
2011-08 -2.1 5.7
2011-09 -3.8 -0.2
2011-10 -7.2 2.0
2011-11 -8.1 0.0
2011-12 -12.7 -0.6
2012-01 -7.6 -2.3
2012-02 -9.9 -5.5
2012-03 -7.2 -2.7
2012-04 -7.6 -3.4
2012-05 -10.9 -4.5
2012-06 -12.6 -6.5
2012-07 -12.1 -6.5
2012-08 -15.4 -9.7
2012-09 -20.3 -14.2
2012-10 -16.9 -10.5
2012-11 -20.0 -16.6
2012-12 -18.9 -16.2
2013-01 -13.6 -11.8
2013-02 -18.2 -15.3
2013-03 -20.7 -16.5
2013-04 -15.2 -12.2
2013-05 -19.2 -15.7
2013-06 -20.9 -17.5
2013-07 -16.1 -13.5
2013-08 -16.5 -15.1
2013-09 -15.6 -12.6
2013-10 -12.0 -12.2
2013-11 -13.8 -12.7
2013-12 -11.4 -9.6
2014-01 -12.1 -10.1
2014-02 -13.1 -11.2
2014-03 -12.1 -10.7
2014-04 -11.7 -9.4
2014-05 -11.4 -8.1
2014-06 -12.2 -9.4
2014-07 -10.3 -5.7
2014-08 -12.7 -9.5
2014-09 -13.6 -9.4
2014-10 -12.6 -10.1
2014-11 -13.5 -10.9
2014-12 -12.8 -13.0
2015-01 -12.9 -11.5
2015-02 -11.4 -11.9
2015-03 -10.5 -9.8
2015-04 -9.8 -8.2
2015-05 -10.5 -8.1
2015-06 -8.9 -9.0
2015-07 -9.6 -8.1
2015-08 -8.9 -7.0
2015-09 -6.7 -7.8
2015-10 -8.6 -7.7
2015-11 -4.6 -6.1
2015-12 -6.9 -8.7
2016-01 -6.1 -7.2
2016-02 -7.6 -7.4
2016-03 -6.2 -5.8
2016-04 -7.6 -6.3
2016-05 -6.2 -4.4
2016-06 -6.3 -5.2
2016-07 -7.1 -6.5
2016-08 -8.8 -4.5
2016-09 -4.9 -7.2
2016-10 -3.4 -5.5
2016-11 -3.3 -3.4
2016-12 -3.1 -0.5
2017-01 -5.6 -4.0
2017-02 -3.5 -1.3
2017-03 -2.0 0.5
2017-04 -4.1 -3.0
2017-05 -2.4 -1.2
2017-06 -3.3 -1.3
2017-07 -1.5 0.2
2017-08 -0.8 -0.7
2017-09 0.0 -1.5
2017-10 0.8 2.4
2017-11 3.5 2.1
2017-12 1.6 5.7
2018-01 2.9 4.4
2018-02 4.6 4.0
2018-03 4.8 3.3
2018-04 3.8 3.6
2018-05 3.2 3.6
2018-06 3.8 3.1
2018-07 1.0 2.8
2018-08 1.8 0.5
2018-09 1.9 2.2
2018-10 0.5 0.3
2018-11 -0.4 -1.6
2018-12 4.2 1.3
2019-01 0.1 -0.1
2019-02 0.1 0.7
2019-03 0.4 2.4
2019-04 1.9 6.2
2019-05 0.3 2.2
2019-06 -1.2 1.1
2019-07 -1.8 1.2
2019-08 -0.7 0.5
2019-09 2.5 3.1
2019-10 -2.2 -1.1
2019-11 -1.3 -1.4
2019-12 -0.2 -2.3
2020-01 -2.4 -2.8
2020-02 -2.2 -1.9
2020-03 -4.6 -3.1
2020-04 -32.2 -10.2
2020-05 -25.9 -23.9
2020-06 -20.4 -29.3
2020-07 -15.1 -25.6
2020-08 -15.3 -22.7
2020-09 -12.8 -16.7
2020-10 -14.0 -15.3
2020-11 -14.4 -9.1
2020-12 -10.6 -9.4
2021-01 -10.2 -10.9

Opinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion: employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices

Balance of opinion, in % SA
Industrialists’ opinion: employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices (Balance of opinion, in % SA)
Manufacturing industry Mean Apr. 20 Jul. 20 Oct. 20 Jan. 21
Workforce size
Past change -10,6 -10 -26 -15 -10,9
Expected change -12 -32 -15 -14 -10
Hiring difficulties (in %) 30 39 27 29 30
Selling prices and cash-flow
Past change in selling prices (in %) 0,1 -0,8 -0,6 0,1 0,1
Expected change in selling prices (in %) 0,2 -0,9 0,3 0 0,1
Cash-flow problems (in %) 14 18 18 15 9
Competitive position
On the domestic market 1 -7 -13 4 1
On foreign markets inside EU -2 -17 -24 -8 1
On foreign markets outside EU -2 -19 -27 0 -6
General exportation expectations -9 -79 -20 -21 -19
  • * : Long-term average since 1991, except for workforce change (since 1976) and for competitive position by market (since 1997).
  • The results of the latest survey are preliminary
  • A quantitative question is asked about selling prices.
  • Source : INSEE – Quarterly business survey in industry

For further information

The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 21 January 2021, especially as regards demand and production factors.

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from 28 December 2020 to 18 January 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.

Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 8:45 am

The quarterly questions complete the monthly survey published in the version dated 21 January 2021, especially as regards demand and production factors.

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Answers to this survey have been collected from 28 December 2020 to 18 January 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab on this page.

Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 8:45 am


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