Informations Rapides · 21 January 2021 · n° 015

In January 2021, the business climate in industry begins the year on the rise  Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2021, the business climate in industry has improved. It has risen by 4 points and now stands at 98, catching up for the first time its early March level, just before dropping because of the national lockdown. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books and to a lesser extent, the one of the balance on past production, have driven the business climate upwards. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects has slightly dipped.

The industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has noticeably improved this month, whereas the associated balance of opinion had experienced a growth at best lackluster since its partial rebound during summer and had edged down in December. Yet, it has remained well below its long-term average. This balance has increased in all main sub-sectors of the industrial sector. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments goods as well as in the “Other manufacturing” industry, the balance has recovered to a similar level to that of early 2020.

The balance of opinion on foreign order books has picked up with a magnitude comparable to that on the overall order books, while remaining at a deteriorated level too.

The industrialist’s opinion on their production during the past three months has again improved in January 2021, after it had occasionally deteriorated last month probably under the influence of the second lockdown. The balance of opinion remains fairly significantly above its average.

In January, industrialists have raised a little their personal production prospects, confirming last month rebound. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects in the French industrial sector has shrunk, after having rebounded strongly in December. Both of these balances are close to their long-term level.

Concerning the stock level, the opinion of industrialists has remained practically unchanged for the third consecutive month. The level of the associated balance of opinion remains slightly under its average.

Finally, the opinion of industrialists about employment has barely changed since last month. The balance of opinion on expected workforce size is virtually stable and is still below its pre-crisis level. The balance on past workforce size has slightly decreased.

In January, the business climate has improved in most of the sectors of the industry. The most noticeable improvement is observed in the machinery and equipment goods sector, where the business climate has gained 8 points in January. At 104, it has reached its highest level since May 2019. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books is particularly involved in this improvement.

The business climate in the manufacture of food products and beverages, that had been deteriorating since October 2020, has somewhat bounced back this month and gained 3 points. At 92, it remains below its average. In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has markedly improved in January. Nevertheless, the response rate in this sector being very low this month, this result must be considered with caution. Finally, in the so called “Other manufacturing” sector, the business climate is virtually stable, slightly above its long-term average, albeit with contrasted results among sub-sectors.