Insee
Informations rapides · 21 January 2021 · n° 015
Informations rapidesIn January 2021, the business climate in industry begins the year on the rise Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2021, the business climate in industry has improved. It has risen by 4 points and now stands at 98, catching up for the first time its early March level, just before dropping because of the national lockdown. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books and to a lesser extent, the one of the balance on past production, have driven the business climate upwards. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects has slightly dipped.

Informations rapides
No 015
Paru le : Paru le 21/01/2021
Prochaine parution le : 25/03/2021 at 08:45 - March 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2021, the business climate in industry has improved. It has risen by 4 points and now stands at 98, catching up for the first time its early March level, just before dropping because of the national lockdown. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books and to a lesser extent, the one of the balance on past production, have driven the business climate upwards. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects has slightly dipped.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2005-01 103.4
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.8
2005-05 97.2
2005-06 99.2
2005-07 100.3
2005-08 99.8
2005-09 99.1
2005-10 101.3
2005-11 101.2
2005-12 104.2
2006-01 103.2
2006-02 106.7
2006-03 106.5
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 109.0
2006-08 108.6
2006-09 108.2
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.4
2007-04 112.1
2007-05 110.2
2007-06 111.3
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.7
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.6
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.3
2008-06 103.6
2008-07 99.0
2008-08 98.2
2008-09 91.9
2008-10 87.3
2008-11 80.1
2008-12 73.7
2009-01 72.9
2009-02 68.9
2009-03 67.0
2009-04 70.9
2009-05 72.6
2009-06 75.2
2009-07 76.7
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.8
2009-12 87.7
2010-01 90.4
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.3
2010-05 96.7
2010-06 95.9
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.1
2010-10 104.2
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 107.0
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.2
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.4
2011-10 97.6
2011-11 97.7
2011-12 94.9
2012-01 95.1
2012-02 95.1
2012-03 96.7
2012-04 95.9
2012-05 95.0
2012-06 93.3
2012-07 91.4
2012-08 93.1
2012-09 92.9
2012-10 87.4
2012-11 91.9
2012-12 91.1
2013-01 90.1
2013-02 90.8
2013-03 90.8
2013-04 88.0
2013-05 92.3
2013-06 92.9
2013-07 94.9
2013-08 98.7
2013-09 96.1
2013-10 98.1
2013-11 98.3
2013-12 99.5
2014-01 99.8
2014-02 98.5
2014-03 101.0
2014-04 100.5
2014-05 98.5
2014-06 96.8
2014-07 96.5
2014-08 96.9
2014-09 97.1
2014-10 97.7
2014-11 99.1
2014-12 98.9
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.7
2015-03 99.2
2015-04 101.7
2015-05 102.0
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.8
2015-08 103.8
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.3
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.6
2016-01 102.9
2016-02 103.2
2016-03 102.7
2016-04 104.9
2016-05 104.6
2016-06 101.7
2016-07 101.8
2016-08 101.9
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.3
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.6
2017-01 106.0
2017-02 106.9
2017-03 105.8
2017-04 108.8
2017-05 109.0
2017-06 109.0
2017-07 108.3
2017-08 110.4
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.1
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.6
2018-03 110.7
2018-04 110.8
2018-05 110.1
2018-06 109.7
2018-07 108.7
2018-08 109.2
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 104.3
2018-11 105.1
2018-12 103.1
2019-01 103.2
2019-02 103.5
2019-03 103.8
2019-04 101.8
2019-05 104.1
2019-06 102.0
2019-07 101.6
2019-08 102.8
2019-09 101.9
2019-10 99.7
2019-11 101.8
2019-12 98.7
2020-01 102.2
2020-02 100.9
2020-03 98.0
2020-04 67.7
2020-05 70.7
2020-06 77.5
2020-07 82.4
2020-08 92.5
2020-09 94.5
2020-10 94.4
2020-11 91.7
2020-12 94.3
2021-01 98.2

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Oct. 20 Nov. 20 Dec. 20 Jan. 21
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 94 92 94 98
Past activity 4 15 15 5 12
Finished-goods inventory 12 8 7 7 8
Overall order books -18 -33 -31 -32 -25
Export order books -14 -46 -43 -38 -30
Past workforce size -10 -15 -9 -9 -11
Expected workforce size -11 -14 -14 -11 -10
Personal production expectations 5 5 -10 5 7
General production expectations -8 -12 -39 -5 -9
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

In January, industrialists have noticeably improved their opinion about overall order books

The industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has noticeably improved this month, whereas the associated balance of opinion had experienced a growth at best lackluster since its partial rebound during summer and had edged down in December. Yet, it has remained well below its long-term average. This balance has increased in all main sub-sectors of the industrial sector. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments goods as well as in the “Other manufacturing” industry, the balance has recovered to a similar level to that of early 2020.

The balance of opinion on foreign order books has picked up with a magnitude comparable to that on the overall order books, while remaining at a deteriorated level too.

The balance of opinion on the past production has recovered but the industrialist remain cautious about their prospects

The industrialist’s opinion on their production during the past three months has again improved in January 2021, after it had occasionally deteriorated last month probably under the influence of the second lockdown. The balance of opinion remains fairly significantly above its average.

In January, industrialists have raised a little their personal production prospects, confirming last month rebound. However, the balance of opinion on general production prospects in the French industrial sector has shrunk, after having rebounded strongly in December. Both of these balances are close to their long-term level.

Concerning the stock level, the opinion of industrialists has remained practically unchanged for the third consecutive month. The level of the associated balance of opinion remains slightly under its average.

Finally, the opinion of industrialists about employment has barely changed since last month. The balance of opinion on expected workforce size is virtually stable and is still below its pre-crisis level. The balance on past workforce size has slightly decreased.

The business climate has improved in most of the sub-sectors of the industry.

In January, the business climate has improved in most of the sectors of the industry. The most noticeable improvement is observed in the machinery and equipment goods sector, where the business climate has gained 8 points in January. At 104, it has reached its highest level since May 2019. The rise in the balance of opinion on overall order books is particularly involved in this improvement.

The business climate in the manufacture of food products and beverages, that had been deteriorating since October 2020, has somewhat bounced back this month and gained 3 points. At 92, it remains below its average. In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has markedly improved in January. Nevertheless, the response rate in this sector being very low this month, this result must be considered with caution. Finally, in the so called “Other manufacturing” sector, the business climate is virtually stable, slightly above its long-term average, albeit with contrasted results among sub-sectors.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.5 105.3 105.4 105.2
2011-02 107.7 103.3 99.9 108.4
2011-03 106.8 107.6 106.3 109.7
2011-04 109.0 105.7 105.9 110.0
2011-05 109.6 104.3 105.3 107.6
2011-06 108.7 105.4 109.5 108.9
2011-07 111.2 103.4 104.0 105.0
2011-08 103.6 101.4 102.0 100.5
2011-09 101.9 100.3 99.0 98.2
2011-10 104.3 98.9 100.4 96.5
2011-11 102.3 96.6 102.3 94.3
2011-12 98.2 96.9 100.3 94.7
2012-01 99.8 96.8 95.1 94.3
2012-02 100.4 96.7 93.9 96.0
2012-03 102.2 97.3 103.0 97.3
2012-04 99.2 96.7 94.2 98.0
2012-05 93.6 95.4 95.1 96.1
2012-06 94.8 91.7 95.9 93.9
2012-07 94.8 91.4 95.3 92.5
2012-08 93.8 90.9 95.4 93.7
2012-09 96.7 91.7 97.3 93.8
2012-10 91.1 86.6 95.8 89.6
2012-11 98.4 87.9 93.0 92.5
2012-12 98.9 88.3 92.6 92.1
2013-01 97.8 88.4 92.7 91.5
2013-02 98.1 89.4 94.5 90.5
2013-03 94.1 89.6 94.0 91.5
2013-04 91.8 90.4 93.1 89.5
2013-05 91.7 90.3 95.1 92.0
2013-06 92.7 89.8 95.0 93.5
2013-07 92.3 90.4 99.0 95.1
2013-08 95.4 92.5 101.6 97.3
2013-09 95.0 90.9 97.8 97.3
2013-10 95.6 91.2 103.8 97.9
2013-11 98.3 93.4 102.2 98.8
2013-12 98.7 92.6 100.2 99.3
2014-01 99.7 92.1 102.6 98.7
2014-02 99.3 94.6 98.2 98.4
2014-03 99.9 93.5 100.8 102.5
2014-04 95.9 93.2 103.0 100.2
2014-05 98.1 94.5 98.5 99.6
2014-06 96.0 92.6 98.3 98.7
2014-07 97.2 90.1 99.5 99.2
2014-08 95.4 94.1 98.0 100.7
2014-09 94.4 92.9 101.0 97.3
2014-10 95.8 93.3 97.5 98.6
2014-11 96.3 92.9 100.3 99.9
2014-12 99.2 92.9 99.9 100.2
2015-01 103.3 94.2 101.9 99.8
2015-02 99.6 95.9 101.3 100.3
2015-03 100.9 94.9 105.4 100.2
2015-04 104.6 97.4 107.1 100.7
2015-05 102.3 97.9 105.1 101.6
2015-06 105.3 98.0 105.3 101.0
2015-07 108.9 99.1 105.0 102.9
2015-08 103.5 98.3 107.9 101.7
2015-09 105.5 97.0 109.1 102.6
2015-10 104.4 99.0 107.9 99.9
2015-11 102.3 100.4 107.9 99.6
2015-12 99.9 98.9 107.8 101.7
2016-01 101.8 101.4 108.2 99.5
2016-02 100.3 101.4 109.1 100.0
2016-03 101.8 100.0 106.0 101.2
2016-04 105.7 101.0 109.3 101.3
2016-05 103.6 98.3 106.2 103.9
2016-06 103.3 98.1 106.0 101.6
2016-07 104.7 98.5 105.3 101.9
2016-08 99.5 99.0 104.1 101.6
2016-09 108.7 99.3 105.3 100.6
2016-10 106.7 98.2 105.9 101.2
2016-11 107.8 100.5 102.5 101.4
2016-12 108.4 104.3 104.6 104.7
2017-01 104.1 103.2 106.8 105.3
2017-02 105.7 104.6 106.5 106.4
2017-03 104.8 105.6 105.7 104.9
2017-04 103.9 107.9 106.2 107.9
2017-05 106.3 109.5 105.7 107.3
2017-06 112.0 109.1 105.3 108.6
2017-07 108.9 109.7 108.4 107.0
2017-08 109.2 107.4 108.7 108.6
2017-09 106.9 108.0 109.4 108.6
2017-10 111.3 110.2 108.7 110.2
2017-11 112.3 110.3 109.3 111.0
2017-12 110.8 111.8 110.3 110.4
2018-01 111.4 113.4 112.1 110.8
2018-02 110.4 111.4 112.3 110.1
2018-03 109.7 110.8 111.6 109.4
2018-04 109.8 110.9 112.8 107.9
2018-05 108.3 111.8 108.3 108.0
2018-06 110.1 108.6 110.0 105.9
2018-07 108.1 108.9 106.2 106.8
2018-08 108.3 108.6 106.8 106.1
2018-09 106.9 107.9 105.2 105.0
2018-10 102.5 107.5 103.9 102.7
2018-11 108.8 102.5 104.2 102.7
2018-12 107.4 102.8 102.3 102.1
2019-01 107.7 104.1 102.5 101.9
2019-02 108.8 105.3 100.8 101.5
2019-03 107.7 101.4 103.0 101.7
2019-04 107.3 102.1 101.4 101.2
2019-05 112.0 104.6 102.6 102.6
2019-06 108.2 99.5 100.8 101.1
2019-07 104.5 103.7 99.4 100.9
2019-08 108.9 100.4 101.6 102.1
2019-09 108.1 100.2 101.3 101.7
2019-10 105.7 97.0 100.8 98.9
2019-11 102.9 98.4 105.6 100.7
2019-12 107.6 97.8 99.2 97.7
2020-01 107.4 101.5 105.5 99.2
2020-02 108.2 99.9 100.2 100.5
2020-03 109.1 98.8 96.2 97.6
2020-04 92.8 77.2 73.7 73.8
2020-05 90.4 75.8 75.7 74.6
2020-06 90.7 79.1 77.4 79.4
2020-07 90.0 85.8 80.5 82.2
2020-08 97.1 92.2 92.0 88.6
2020-09 102.4 91.9 92.3 93.1
2020-10 94.4 95.3 91.8 94.9
2020-11 90.8 92.2 90.0 94.7
2020-12 88.8 96.6 87.5 101.5
2021-01 91.7 104.5 93.2 101.1

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Nov. 20 Dec. 20 Jan. 21
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 91 89 92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 92 97 104
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 90 96 105
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 92 96 107
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 94 98 101
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 90 88 93
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 106 102 110
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 77 78 78
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 95 102 101
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 88 98 104
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 104 107 105
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 85 100 96
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 97 104 101
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 98 98 98
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 96 99 106
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Responses of enterprises have been collected between 28 December and 18 Janvier 2021.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 February 2021 at 8:45 am.

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Responses of enterprises have been collected between 28 December and 18 Janvier 2021.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 24 February 2021 at 8:45 am.


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