Informations Rapides · 21 January 2021 · n° 013

In January 2021, the business climate is virtually stable in retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles as a whole Monthly survey of retailing - January 2021

In January 2021, the business climate is practically stable in retail trade and in trade and repair of vehicles. At 93, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point and continues to stand below its long-term average (100). This virtual stability of the synthetic indicator results from both an improvement in past activity and, conversely, concerns about future activity, in a health context that remains uncertain.

In January 2021, almost all the balances of opinion relating to economic activity over the near future have declined, in particular the one on the general business outlook of the sector, which has slipped back. The balances on ordering intentions and on expected sales have also fallen back. These three balances have deviated from their long-term averages. Conversely, the balance of opinion on expected prices has picked up and has returned above its own.

The balance of opinion on recent sales has picked up sharply this month to approach its average, likely reflecting the easing of health restrictions on shops from the end of November. The balance on the stock level has fallen back, moving away from its own.

The bimonthly balances of opinion on the recent development in selling prices and on the cash position have increased slightly compared to November 2020. The one on the cash position has reached its average while the one on the recent development in selling prices remains above its own.

In January 2021, the opinion of business leaders on the expected development in their workforce size over the next three months has improved again markedly; the corresponding balance has reached its long-term average. The balance on recent change in the workforce size has bounced back but remains below its own.

In January 2021, in retail trade, the business climate has improved again strongly. At 95, it has gained 9 points after +18 points in the previous month, but remains well below his average (100). This further improvement is mainly due to the rise in the balances of opinion on employment. Indeed, the balances of opinion on recent and expected change in staff size have sharply increased. The one on recent trend of workforce size remains below its average when that on expected trend of workforce size has returned above it.

However, business leaders remain pessimistic about the activity of the coming months. The main balances summarizing their expectations have fallen down sharply, whether it is the general business outlook for the sector, ordering intentions or expected sales. These three balances stand below their long-term average. In specialized retail trade, the fall in the balance on expected sales is marked.

The balance on the level of stocks has declined and stands below its average. The one on the expected development in selling prices has been fluctuating slightly around its average since June.

The bimonthly balances on the recent development in selling prices and on the cash position have increased compared to November 2020, in particular that on the recent change in prices in non-specialized retailing. They both stand above their average.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly worsened in January 2021: it has lost 2 points after a gain of 13 points in the previous month. At 93, it remains well below its average (100).

The main balances relating to the expectations of business leaders have fallen back, without dropping to a level as low as in last November: namely the general business outlook for the sector, expected sales, ordering intentions. These three balances stand below their long-term average.

The balance on recent sales has bounced back slightly, after falling last month. It remains significantly below its average. The balance on the level of stocks has declined and is below its average. The one on the expected selling prices has bounced back and returned above its own.

The bimonthly balance of opinion on past selling prices has dropped slightly from November and has moved just below its average. The one on the cash position, which is also bimonthly, is stable at its average level.

The balance of opinion on workforce size forecast for the next three months has risen again, while the one on recent workforce size development has declined again. These two balances stand below their average.

The business climate for December 2020 in retail trade and trade and repair of vehicles as a whole has been revised downwards by one point. That in the retail trade sub-sector has been revised upwards by one point for December 2020, while that in trade and repair of vehicles has been revised downwards by four points. These revisions are mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies.