Informations rapides
24 November 2020
2020- n° 294
In November 2020, the business climate in industry has slightly deteriorated Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2020, in the context of a second national lockdown, the business climate in the goods-producing industries has fallen a bit. It has lost two points and now stands at 92, well below its long-term level (100). This is a much smaller fall than in April 2020, when the indicator had reached 68. It is driven mainly by a further deterioration in the personal production expectations. Also, industrialists are markedly more pessimistic this month about the general production prospects in the manufacturing sector.

Informations rapides
No 294
Paru le :Paru le24/11/2020
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
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Firms’ answers have been collected from 28 October to 19 November, solely online given the ongoing lockdown. The response rate is however close to the one in October.

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2020, in the context of a second national lockdown, the business climate in the goods-producing industries has fallen a bit. It has lost two points and now stands at 92, well below its long-term level (100). This is a much smaller fall than in April 2020, when the indicator had reached 68. It is driven mainly by a further deterioration in the personal production expectations. Also, industrialists are markedly more pessimistic this month about the general production prospects in the manufacturing sector.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
2005-01 103.4
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.8
2005-05 97.2
2005-06 99.1
2005-07 100.3
2005-08 99.8
2005-09 99.1
2005-10 101.3
2005-11 101.1
2005-12 104.2
2006-01 103.2
2006-02 106.7
2006-03 106.5
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 108.9
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 109.0
2006-08 108.6
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.3
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.4
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.3
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.3
2008-06 103.6
2008-07 98.9
2008-08 98.2
2008-09 91.9
2008-10 87.4
2008-11 80.1
2008-12 73.7
2009-01 72.9
2009-02 68.9
2009-03 67.0
2009-04 70.9
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.3
2009-07 76.7
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.8
2009-12 87.7
2010-01 90.4
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.3
2010-05 96.7
2010-06 95.9
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.0
2010-10 104.2
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 107.0
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.4
2011-10 97.6
2011-11 97.7
2011-12 94.9
2012-01 95.1
2012-02 95.1
2012-03 96.7
2012-04 95.9
2012-05 95.0
2012-06 93.3
2012-07 91.4
2012-08 93.1
2012-09 92.9
2012-10 87.4
2012-11 91.9
2012-12 91.1
2013-01 90.1
2013-02 90.8
2013-03 90.8
2013-04 88.0
2013-05 92.3
2013-06 92.9
2013-07 94.9
2013-08 98.7
2013-09 96.1
2013-10 98.1
2013-11 98.3
2013-12 99.4
2014-01 99.8
2014-02 98.5
2014-03 101.0
2014-04 100.4
2014-05 98.5
2014-06 96.8
2014-07 96.5
2014-08 96.9
2014-09 97.1
2014-10 97.6
2014-11 99.0
2014-12 98.9
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.7
2015-03 99.2
2015-04 101.7
2015-05 102.0
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.8
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.3
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.6
2016-01 102.8
2016-02 103.2
2016-03 102.7
2016-04 104.9
2016-05 104.5
2016-06 101.7
2016-07 101.8
2016-08 101.9
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.3
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.6
2017-01 106.0
2017-02 106.9
2017-03 105.8
2017-04 108.8
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 109.0
2017-07 108.3
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.1
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.7
2018-04 110.8
2018-05 110.1
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.2
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.3
2018-11 105.1
2018-12 103.1
2019-01 103.2
2019-02 103.5
2019-03 103.8
2019-04 101.8
2019-05 104.1
2019-06 102.0
2019-07 101.6
2019-08 102.8
2019-09 101.9
2019-10 99.7
2019-11 101.8
2019-12 98.7
2020-01 102.2
2020-02 100.8
2020-03 98.0
2020-04 67.7
2020-05 70.8
2020-06 77.5
2020-07 82.4
2020-08 92.5
2020-09 94.5
2020-10 94.4
2020-11 91.7

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Aug. 20 Sept. 20 Oct. 20 Nov. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 92 94 94 92
Past activity 4 -4 7 15 14
Finished-goods inventory 12 7 6 8 7
Overall order books -18 -37 -34 -33 -31
Export order books -14 -53 -43 -46 -43
Past workforce size -10 -23 -17 -15 -9
Expected workforce size -11 -15 -13 -14 -16
Personal production expectations 5 22 10 5 -10
General production expectations -8 -4 -3 -12 -39
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Industrialists’ opinion on production prospects has deteriorated

In November 2020, industrialists have again worsened their opinion on their personal production prospects. The related balance has been falling since August and has now dropped to its lowest level since May 2020. The balance of opinion on general production expectations for the French industry has diminished in an even more significant way. It has lost 27 points which is equivalent to half of the fall recorded between February and April, corresponding to the first lockdown.

Both balances of opinion on overall and foreign order books have slightly improved but they still have not caught up with their pre-crisis levels. The former has continued its progressive recovery at the same pace as last month. The latter has also increased slightly after a drop in October.

For the first time since May 2020, industrialists’ opinion on the past change in production has stopped improving. The related balance of opinion has stagnated this month, above its long term average level.

The balance of opinion on the stock level has been virtually stable since September and remains below its long-term average level.

Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the past change in workforce size has improved again and has returned right above its long-term average level. On the other hand, the balance of opinion on expected workforce size has slightly declined.

The business climate has worsened in nearly all industrial sectors.

In November, nearly all sectors in the manufacturing industry had to cope with a deteriorated business climate. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments, the business climate has lost 3 points with a noticeable drop of 5 points in the electric equipments sector. The business climates in the manufacturing of food products and beverages as well as in the manufacturing of transport equipments have both lost 2 points. In the latter, the climate indicator has declined in the motor vehicles sector, although it remains above its average. In the manufacture of other transport equipments it remains very low, far below its average. Finally, in the “other manufacturing” sector the business climate is overall steady but the variations are heterogeneous at more detailed levels. The climate in the textile and clothing industry has lost 7 points while the one in the chemicals and chemical products sector has gained 6 points.

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing for October 2020 has been revised upwards by one point due to the integration of late business responses.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.4 105.3 105.3 105.2
2011-02 107.6 103.3 99.8 108.4
2011-03 106.7 107.6 106.2 109.7
2011-04 109.0 105.7 105.9 109.9
2011-05 109.6 104.3 105.3 107.6
2011-06 108.7 105.4 109.5 108.9
2011-07 111.1 103.4 104.0 105.0
2011-08 103.6 101.4 101.9 100.5
2011-09 101.9 100.3 99.0 98.2
2011-10 104.3 98.9 100.3 96.5
2011-11 102.2 96.6 102.3 94.3
2011-12 98.1 96.9 100.2 94.7
2012-01 99.8 96.8 95.1 94.3
2012-02 100.4 96.7 93.9 96.1
2012-03 102.2 97.3 103.0 97.4
2012-04 99.1 96.7 94.2 98.0
2012-05 93.5 95.4 95.1 96.1
2012-06 94.8 91.7 95.8 93.9
2012-07 94.7 91.5 95.3 92.6
2012-08 93.7 91.0 95.4 93.8
2012-09 96.7 91.7 97.2 93.8
2012-10 91.1 86.6 95.8 89.6
2012-11 98.3 87.9 93.0 92.5
2012-12 98.8 88.3 92.5 92.1
2013-01 97.7 88.4 92.7 91.5
2013-02 98.0 89.4 94.5 90.5
2013-03 94.0 89.6 94.0 91.5
2013-04 91.8 90.4 93.1 89.6
2013-05 91.6 90.3 95.0 92.1
2013-06 92.6 89.9 95.0 93.5
2013-07 92.2 90.4 98.9 95.1
2013-08 95.4 92.5 101.5 97.3
2013-09 95.0 90.9 97.8 97.3
2013-10 95.5 91.2 103.8 97.9
2013-11 98.2 93.5 102.1 98.8
2013-12 98.7 92.6 100.1 99.3
2014-01 99.6 92.1 102.6 98.8
2014-02 99.2 94.6 98.2 98.5
2014-03 99.9 93.5 100.8 102.5
2014-04 95.8 93.3 102.9 100.3
2014-05 98.0 94.5 98.5 99.6
2014-06 96.0 92.6 98.2 98.7
2014-07 97.1 90.1 99.4 99.2
2014-08 95.3 94.2 98.0 100.7
2014-09 94.4 92.9 100.9 97.4
2014-10 95.7 93.3 97.4 98.6
2014-11 96.3 92.9 100.2 99.9
2014-12 99.1 92.9 99.9 100.2
2015-01 103.3 94.3 101.8 99.8
2015-02 99.5 95.9 101.2 100.3
2015-03 100.8 94.9 105.3 100.2
2015-04 104.5 97.4 107.1 100.7
2015-05 102.3 97.9 105.0 101.6
2015-06 105.3 98.0 105.2 101.0
2015-07 108.8 99.1 104.9 102.9
2015-08 103.5 98.3 107.9 101.7
2015-09 105.5 97.0 109.0 102.6
2015-10 104.3 99.0 107.8 100.0
2015-11 102.3 100.4 107.8 99.6
2015-12 99.8 98.9 107.8 101.7
2016-01 101.8 101.4 108.1 99.5
2016-02 100.2 101.4 109.0 100.0
2016-03 101.8 100.0 106.0 101.2
2016-04 105.6 101.0 109.2 101.3
2016-05 103.6 98.3 106.1 103.9
2016-06 103.3 98.1 106.0 101.6
2016-07 104.6 98.5 105.2 101.9
2016-08 99.4 99.0 104.0 101.6
2016-09 108.6 99.3 105.2 100.6
2016-10 106.6 98.3 105.8 101.2
2016-11 107.7 100.5 102.5 101.4
2016-12 108.3 104.3 104.6 104.7
2017-01 104.1 103.2 106.8 105.3
2017-02 105.7 104.6 106.5 106.3
2017-03 104.7 105.6 105.6 104.9
2017-04 103.9 107.9 106.2 107.9
2017-05 106.2 109.5 105.6 107.3
2017-06 111.9 109.1 105.2 108.6
2017-07 108.9 109.7 108.4 107.0
2017-08 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.6
2017-09 106.9 108.0 109.4 108.6
2017-10 111.2 110.2 108.6 110.2
2017-11 112.3 110.3 109.3 111.0
2017-12 110.8 111.7 110.3 110.3
2018-01 111.3 113.3 112.1 110.8
2018-02 110.4 111.4 112.2 110.1
2018-03 109.7 110.8 111.5 109.4
2018-04 109.8 110.9 112.7 107.9
2018-05 108.2 111.8 108.2 108.0
2018-06 110.0 108.6 109.9 105.9
2018-07 108.1 108.9 106.1 106.8
2018-08 108.3 108.6 106.7 106.1
2018-09 106.9 107.9 105.2 105.0
2018-10 102.5 107.4 103.8 102.7
2018-11 108.8 102.5 104.2 102.7
2018-12 107.4 102.8 102.3 102.1
2019-01 107.6 104.1 102.5 101.9
2019-02 108.7 105.3 100.7 101.5
2019-03 107.7 101.4 102.9 101.7
2019-04 107.2 102.1 101.4 101.2
2019-05 111.9 104.6 102.6 102.6
2019-06 108.2 99.5 100.8 101.1
2019-07 104.5 103.7 99.3 100.9
2019-08 108.8 100.4 101.6 102.1
2019-09 108.0 100.2 101.3 101.7
2019-10 105.6 97.0 100.7 98.9
2019-11 102.8 98.4 105.6 100.7
2019-12 107.5 97.8 99.1 97.7
2020-01 107.3 101.5 105.5 99.2
2020-02 108.2 99.9 100.1 100.5
2020-03 109.0 98.8 96.1 97.6
2020-04 92.8 77.3 73.7 73.9
2020-05 90.3 75.8 75.7 74.7
2020-06 90.6 79.2 77.4 79.5
2020-07 89.9 85.8 80.5 82.3
2020-08 97.1 92.2 91.9 88.7
2020-09 102.3 91.9 92.3 93.1
2020-10 94.4 95.3 91.7 94.9
2020-11 92.1 92.2 89.5 94.6

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Sept. 20 Oct. 20 Nov. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 102 94 92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 92 95 92
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 87 90 90
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 94 97 92
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 93 97 94
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 92 92 90
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 9 113 112 106
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 77 76 76
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 93 95 95
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 92 96 89
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 99 104 104
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 83 79 85
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 98 103 97
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 93 98 98
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 97 99 95
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 17 December 2020 at 8:45 am.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.

Next issue: 17 December 2020 at 8:45 am.

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