24 September 2020
2020- n° 237In September 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has continued
to rebound, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous months Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - September 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve although at a slower pace than before. The composite indicator has gained 3 points compared to August while it had gained 10 points between July and August. At 96, it has moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balances of opinion on past production and overall order-books. It is limited by the sharp fall in the balance of opinion on personal production prospects.
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve although at a slower pace than before. The composite indicator has gained 3 points compared to August while it had gained 10 points between July and August. At 96, it has moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balances of opinion on past production and overall order-books. It is limited by the sharp fall in the balance of opinion on personal production prospects.
tableauBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-01 | 112.6 |
1998-02 | 113.2 |
1998-03 | 117.1 |
1998-04 | 115.2 |
1998-05 | 114.9 |
1998-06 | 115.2 |
1998-07 | 113.9 |
1998-08 | 112.9 |
1998-09 | 112.1 |
1998-10 | 106.9 |
1998-11 | 104.1 |
1998-12 | 102.4 |
1999-01 | 101.8 |
1999-02 | 102.1 |
1999-03 | 97.1 |
1999-04 | 98.5 |
1999-05 | 100.8 |
1999-06 | 99.7 |
1999-07 | 106.0 |
1999-08 | 109.1 |
1999-09 | 112.0 |
1999-10 | 113.4 |
1999-11 | 116.5 |
1999-12 | 114.5 |
2000-01 | 115.7 |
2000-02 | 117.7 |
2000-03 | 119.8 |
2000-04 | 119.8 |
2000-05 | 121.3 |
2000-06 | 124.1 |
2000-07 | 121.3 |
2000-08 | 121.4 |
2000-09 | 121.1 |
2000-10 | 119.9 |
2000-11 | 118.0 |
2000-12 | 114.2 |
2001-01 | 113.0 |
2001-02 | 113.0 |
2001-03 | 111.6 |
2001-04 | 107.4 |
2001-05 | 105.8 |
2001-06 | 104.3 |
2001-07 | 101.7 |
2001-08 | 98.8 |
2001-09 | 95.7 |
2001-10 | 95.2 |
2001-11 | 91.2 |
2001-12 | 92.6 |
2002-01 | 93.7 |
2002-02 | 95.4 |
2002-03 | 97.2 |
2002-04 | 98.7 |
2002-05 | 102.3 |
2002-06 | 100.6 |
2002-07 | 97.6 |
2002-08 | 98.2 |
2002-09 | 99.1 |
2002-10 | 96.0 |
2002-11 | 96.6 |
2002-12 | 101.1 |
2003-01 | 97.9 |
2003-02 | 97.5 |
2003-03 | 93.1 |
2003-04 | 92.1 |
2003-05 | 91.9 |
2003-06 | 90.2 |
2003-07 | 92.9 |
2003-08 | 92.7 |
2003-09 | 92.9 |
2003-10 | 95.8 |
2003-11 | 100.1 |
2003-12 | 100.7 |
2004-01 | 100.4 |
2004-02 | 100.5 |
2004-03 | 103.7 |
2004-04 | 103.4 |
2004-05 | 104.7 |
2004-06 | 105.4 |
2004-07 | 105.2 |
2004-08 | 105.3 |
2004-09 | 105.3 |
2004-10 | 105.1 |
2004-11 | 103.2 |
2004-12 | 103.4 |
2005-01 | 103.3 |
2005-02 | 103.2 |
2005-03 | 99.8 |
2005-04 | 96.7 |
2005-05 | 97.2 |
2005-06 | 99.1 |
2005-07 | 100.2 |
2005-08 | 99.7 |
2005-09 | 99.1 |
2005-10 | 101.2 |
2005-11 | 101.1 |
2005-12 | 104.1 |
2006-01 | 103.1 |
2006-02 | 106.6 |
2006-03 | 106.4 |
2006-04 | 108.0 |
2006-05 | 108.9 |
2006-06 | 108.7 |
2006-07 | 109.0 |
2006-08 | 108.6 |
2006-09 | 108.1 |
2006-10 | 107.3 |
2006-11 | 109.7 |
2006-12 | 109.3 |
2007-01 | 108.3 |
2007-02 | 111.8 |
2007-03 | 111.3 |
2007-04 | 112.0 |
2007-05 | 110.1 |
2007-06 | 111.2 |
2007-07 | 111.6 |
2007-08 | 111.0 |
2007-09 | 110.6 |
2007-10 | 110.0 |
2007-11 | 112.2 |
2007-12 | 112.5 |
2008-01 | 110.5 |
2008-02 | 110.3 |
2008-03 | 110.0 |
2008-04 | 107.5 |
2008-05 | 104.2 |
2008-06 | 103.6 |
2008-07 | 98.9 |
2008-08 | 98.2 |
2008-09 | 91.8 |
2008-10 | 87.3 |
2008-11 | 80.1 |
2008-12 | 73.7 |
2009-01 | 72.9 |
2009-02 | 68.9 |
2009-03 | 67.0 |
2009-04 | 70.9 |
2009-05 | 72.7 |
2009-06 | 75.2 |
2009-07 | 76.7 |
2009-08 | 81.2 |
2009-09 | 84.2 |
2009-10 | 85.4 |
2009-11 | 87.7 |
2009-12 | 87.7 |
2010-01 | 90.3 |
2010-02 | 88.9 |
2010-03 | 91.3 |
2010-04 | 95.2 |
2010-05 | 96.7 |
2010-06 | 95.9 |
2010-07 | 97.4 |
2010-08 | 100.5 |
2010-09 | 103.0 |
2010-10 | 104.2 |
2010-11 | 101.9 |
2010-12 | 104.3 |
2011-01 | 108.8 |
2011-02 | 106.9 |
2011-03 | 110.2 |
2011-04 | 110.1 |
2011-05 | 107.2 |
2011-06 | 109.9 |
2011-07 | 104.9 |
2011-08 | 101.4 |
2011-09 | 99.4 |
2011-10 | 97.6 |
2011-11 | 97.7 |
2011-12 | 94.9 |
2012-01 | 95.1 |
2012-02 | 95.1 |
2012-03 | 96.6 |
2012-04 | 95.8 |
2012-05 | 95.0 |
2012-06 | 93.3 |
2012-07 | 91.3 |
2012-08 | 93.1 |
2012-09 | 92.9 |
2012-10 | 87.4 |
2012-11 | 91.9 |
2012-12 | 91.1 |
2013-01 | 90.1 |
2013-02 | 90.8 |
2013-03 | 90.8 |
2013-04 | 88.0 |
2013-05 | 92.3 |
2013-06 | 92.9 |
2013-07 | 94.9 |
2013-08 | 98.7 |
2013-09 | 96.1 |
2013-10 | 98.1 |
2013-11 | 98.2 |
2013-12 | 99.4 |
2014-01 | 99.7 |
2014-02 | 98.5 |
2014-03 | 100.9 |
2014-04 | 100.4 |
2014-05 | 98.5 |
2014-06 | 96.8 |
2014-07 | 96.5 |
2014-08 | 96.8 |
2014-09 | 97.0 |
2014-10 | 97.6 |
2014-11 | 99.0 |
2014-12 | 98.8 |
2015-01 | 98.9 |
2015-02 | 98.6 |
2015-03 | 99.1 |
2015-04 | 101.7 |
2015-05 | 101.9 |
2015-06 | 100.4 |
2015-07 | 101.7 |
2015-08 | 103.8 |
2015-09 | 104.8 |
2015-10 | 103.3 |
2015-11 | 102.4 |
2015-12 | 102.6 |
2016-01 | 102.8 |
2016-02 | 103.1 |
2016-03 | 102.6 |
2016-04 | 104.8 |
2016-05 | 104.5 |
2016-06 | 101.6 |
2016-07 | 101.8 |
2016-08 | 101.8 |
2016-09 | 103.5 |
2016-10 | 102.2 |
2016-11 | 102.2 |
2016-12 | 105.6 |
2017-01 | 105.9 |
2017-02 | 106.8 |
2017-03 | 105.7 |
2017-04 | 108.7 |
2017-05 | 108.9 |
2017-06 | 109.0 |
2017-07 | 108.2 |
2017-08 | 110.3 |
2017-09 | 110.9 |
2017-10 | 111.0 |
2017-11 | 111.5 |
2017-12 | 111.5 |
2018-01 | 113.5 |
2018-02 | 112.5 |
2018-03 | 110.7 |
2018-04 | 110.8 |
2018-05 | 110.0 |
2018-06 | 109.6 |
2018-07 | 108.6 |
2018-08 | 109.1 |
2018-09 | 107.2 |
2018-10 | 104.2 |
2018-11 | 105.1 |
2018-12 | 103.1 |
2019-01 | 103.2 |
2019-02 | 103.4 |
2019-03 | 103.7 |
2019-04 | 101.8 |
2019-05 | 104.1 |
2019-06 | 101.9 |
2019-07 | 101.6 |
2019-08 | 102.8 |
2019-09 | 101.9 |
2019-10 | 99.6 |
2019-11 | 101.8 |
2019-12 | 98.7 |
2020-01 | 102.1 |
2020-02 | 100.8 |
2020-03 | 98.0 |
2020-04 | 67.7 |
2020-05 | 70.8 |
2020-06 | 77.5 |
2020-07 | 82.4 |
2020-08 | 92.5 |
2020-09 | 95.6 |
graphiqueBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
tableauIndustrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity
Ave.* | May 20 | June 20 | July 20 | Aug. 20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing industry | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 77 | 82 | 92 | 96 |
Past activity | 4 | -57 | -41 | -4 | 8 |
Finished-goods inventory | 12 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 2 |
Overall order books | -18 | -55 | -51 | -37 | -33 |
Export order books | -14 | -65 | -62 | -53 | -42 |
Past workforce size | -10 | -29 | -26 | -23 | -16 |
Expected workforce size | -11 | -20 | -15 | -15 | -12 |
Personal production expectations | 5 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 12 |
General production expectations | -8 | -15 | -4 | -4 | -2 |
- * Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
Industrialists’ opinion on their recent production and their order books has improved, but their opinion on personal production expectations has worsened
In September 2020, industrialists’ balances of opinion on overall and foreign order-books has continued to grow, although remaining very deteriorated, particularly regarding foreign order-books. This rise is however more significant for the latter than for the overall order books.
The balance of opinion on change in production during the past three months has increased sharply, although at a much slower pace than in the previous month. It has, however, returned above its long-term average.
On the other hand, industrialists are less optimistic about future production than in August. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations for the next three months has fallen sharply, amplifying the dip recorded last month. It still remains above its average, which it has exceeded since June. However, industrialists are slightly more confident than in August about the general production prospects for the industrial sector.
More and more companies have considered the level of their stocks to be below normal. The corresponding balance has again fallen significantly and has moved away from its long-term average.
Regarding employment, the balances of opinion on past and expected trends in workforce size have continued their gradual rebound. The balance on the expected change is now close to its long-term average.
Business climates have continued to recover in almost all sub-sectors
In September, almost all sub-sectoral business climates have improved. In the manufacture of food products, a relatively well-preserved sector over the spring, the climate indicator has continued its rebound which began in August at the same pace (+5 points) and has again exceeded its average, driven by the balances on order books. In the manufacture of machinery and equipments, the business climate is virtually stable. The climate in the transport equipment sector is slightly better than in August, mainly driven by the automotive sector. Indeed, it remains very deteriorated in the manufacture of other transport equipment. Finally, the « other manufacturing » sector has continued to recover from its April fall induced by the health crisis. The business climate has improved by 5 points, driven in particular by the chemical industry where it has recovered (+7 points) after its decline in August.
Revisions
The August business climate has been revised downwards by one point due to the integration of late business responses.
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) | (C3) | (C4) | (C5) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2011-01 | 109.4 | 105.2 | 105.2 | 105.2 |
2011-02 | 107.6 | 103.3 | 99.7 | 108.3 |
2011-03 | 106.7 | 107.6 | 106.2 | 109.7 |
2011-04 | 108.9 | 105.6 | 105.8 | 109.9 |
2011-05 | 109.5 | 104.2 | 105.2 | 107.6 |
2011-06 | 108.6 | 105.3 | 109.4 | 108.8 |
2011-07 | 111.1 | 103.4 | 103.9 | 104.9 |
2011-08 | 103.5 | 101.3 | 101.9 | 100.4 |
2011-09 | 101.8 | 100.3 | 98.9 | 98.2 |
2011-10 | 104.3 | 98.9 | 100.3 | 96.5 |
2011-11 | 102.2 | 96.6 | 102.2 | 94.3 |
2011-12 | 98.1 | 96.9 | 100.2 | 94.7 |
2012-01 | 99.7 | 96.8 | 95.1 | 94.3 |
2012-02 | 100.3 | 96.7 | 93.8 | 96.0 |
2012-03 | 102.1 | 97.3 | 102.9 | 97.3 |
2012-04 | 99.1 | 96.7 | 94.1 | 98.0 |
2012-05 | 93.5 | 95.4 | 95.0 | 96.0 |
2012-06 | 94.8 | 91.7 | 95.8 | 93.9 |
2012-07 | 94.7 | 91.4 | 95.2 | 92.6 |
2012-08 | 93.7 | 90.9 | 95.3 | 93.7 |
2012-09 | 96.6 | 91.7 | 97.2 | 93.8 |
2012-10 | 91.1 | 86.6 | 95.7 | 89.6 |
2012-11 | 98.3 | 87.9 | 92.9 | 92.5 |
2012-12 | 98.8 | 88.3 | 92.5 | 92.1 |
2013-01 | 97.7 | 88.4 | 92.6 | 91.5 |
2013-02 | 98.0 | 89.4 | 94.4 | 90.5 |
2013-03 | 94.0 | 89.6 | 93.9 | 91.5 |
2013-04 | 91.8 | 90.4 | 93.0 | 89.6 |
2013-05 | 91.6 | 90.3 | 95.0 | 92.1 |
2013-06 | 92.6 | 89.8 | 94.9 | 93.5 |
2013-07 | 92.2 | 90.4 | 98.9 | 95.1 |
2013-08 | 95.3 | 92.5 | 101.5 | 97.3 |
2013-09 | 94.9 | 90.8 | 97.7 | 97.3 |
2013-10 | 95.5 | 91.2 | 103.7 | 97.9 |
2013-11 | 98.2 | 93.4 | 102.0 | 98.8 |
2013-12 | 98.6 | 92.6 | 100.1 | 99.3 |
2014-01 | 99.6 | 92.1 | 102.5 | 98.7 |
2014-02 | 99.2 | 94.6 | 98.1 | 98.4 |
2014-03 | 99.8 | 93.5 | 100.7 | 102.4 |
2014-04 | 95.8 | 93.2 | 102.9 | 100.2 |
2014-05 | 98.0 | 94.5 | 98.4 | 99.5 |
2014-06 | 96.0 | 92.6 | 98.2 | 98.7 |
2014-07 | 97.1 | 90.1 | 99.3 | 99.2 |
2014-08 | 95.3 | 94.1 | 97.9 | 100.7 |
2014-09 | 94.3 | 92.9 | 100.9 | 97.3 |
2014-10 | 95.7 | 93.3 | 97.4 | 98.6 |
2014-11 | 96.2 | 92.9 | 100.2 | 99.9 |
2014-12 | 99.1 | 92.9 | 99.8 | 100.2 |
2015-01 | 103.2 | 94.2 | 101.8 | 99.7 |
2015-02 | 99.5 | 95.9 | 101.2 | 100.3 |
2015-03 | 100.8 | 94.9 | 105.3 | 100.2 |
2015-04 | 104.5 | 97.4 | 107.0 | 100.7 |
2015-05 | 102.2 | 97.9 | 105.0 | 101.6 |
2015-06 | 105.2 | 97.9 | 105.2 | 101.0 |
2015-07 | 108.8 | 99.1 | 104.9 | 102.9 |
2015-08 | 103.4 | 98.2 | 107.8 | 101.7 |
2015-09 | 105.5 | 96.9 | 109.0 | 102.6 |
2015-10 | 104.3 | 99.0 | 107.8 | 99.9 |
2015-11 | 102.2 | 100.4 | 107.8 | 99.6 |
2015-12 | 99.8 | 98.8 | 107.7 | 101.7 |
2016-01 | 101.7 | 101.4 | 108.0 | 99.5 |
2016-02 | 100.2 | 101.4 | 109.0 | 100.0 |
2016-03 | 101.7 | 100.0 | 105.9 | 101.1 |
2016-04 | 105.6 | 101.0 | 109.2 | 101.3 |
2016-05 | 103.5 | 98.3 | 106.1 | 103.9 |
2016-06 | 103.2 | 98.0 | 105.9 | 101.6 |
2016-07 | 104.6 | 98.5 | 105.2 | 101.8 |
2016-08 | 99.4 | 99.0 | 104.0 | 101.6 |
2016-09 | 108.6 | 99.2 | 105.2 | 100.6 |
2016-10 | 106.6 | 98.2 | 105.8 | 101.2 |
2016-11 | 107.7 | 100.5 | 102.4 | 101.4 |
2016-12 | 108.3 | 104.2 | 104.5 | 104.6 |
2017-01 | 104.1 | 103.2 | 106.7 | 105.3 |
2017-02 | 105.6 | 104.6 | 106.4 | 106.3 |
2017-03 | 104.7 | 105.5 | 105.5 | 104.8 |
2017-04 | 103.8 | 107.9 | 106.1 | 107.9 |
2017-05 | 106.2 | 109.5 | 105.6 | 107.3 |
2017-06 | 111.9 | 109.1 | 105.2 | 108.5 |
2017-07 | 108.8 | 109.6 | 108.3 | 106.9 |
2017-08 | 109.1 | 107.4 | 108.6 | 108.5 |
2017-09 | 106.8 | 107.9 | 109.3 | 108.6 |
2017-10 | 111.2 | 110.1 | 108.6 | 110.2 |
2017-11 | 112.2 | 110.3 | 109.2 | 110.9 |
2017-12 | 110.7 | 111.7 | 110.2 | 110.3 |
2018-01 | 111.3 | 113.3 | 112.0 | 110.7 |
2018-02 | 110.3 | 111.4 | 112.1 | 110.1 |
2018-03 | 109.6 | 110.7 | 111.5 | 109.4 |
2018-04 | 109.7 | 110.8 | 112.7 | 107.8 |
2018-05 | 108.2 | 111.7 | 108.2 | 107.9 |
2018-06 | 110.0 | 108.5 | 109.8 | 105.9 |
2018-07 | 108.0 | 108.9 | 106.0 | 106.8 |
2018-08 | 108.2 | 108.6 | 106.6 | 106.0 |
2018-09 | 106.8 | 107.9 | 105.1 | 105.0 |
2018-10 | 102.4 | 107.4 | 103.7 | 102.6 |
2018-11 | 108.7 | 102.5 | 104.1 | 102.7 |
2018-12 | 107.3 | 102.7 | 102.2 | 102.1 |
2019-01 | 107.6 | 104.0 | 102.4 | 101.9 |
2019-02 | 108.7 | 105.3 | 100.7 | 101.4 |
2019-03 | 107.6 | 101.4 | 102.9 | 101.6 |
2019-04 | 107.2 | 102.0 | 101.3 | 101.2 |
2019-05 | 111.9 | 104.5 | 102.5 | 102.5 |
2019-06 | 108.1 | 99.4 | 100.7 | 101.0 |
2019-07 | 104.4 | 103.6 | 99.3 | 100.8 |
2019-08 | 108.8 | 100.4 | 101.5 | 102.1 |
2019-09 | 108.0 | 100.1 | 101.2 | 101.7 |
2019-10 | 105.6 | 97.0 | 100.7 | 98.9 |
2019-11 | 102.8 | 98.3 | 105.5 | 100.7 |
2019-12 | 107.5 | 97.7 | 99.1 | 97.7 |
2020-01 | 107.3 | 101.5 | 105.4 | 99.2 |
2020-02 | 108.1 | 99.9 | 100.1 | 100.5 |
2020-03 | 109.0 | 98.8 | 96.1 | 97.5 |
2020-04 | 92.7 | 77.3 | 73.6 | 73.9 |
2020-05 | 90.2 | 75.8 | 75.6 | 74.7 |
2020-06 | 90.6 | 79.2 | 77.3 | 79.5 |
2020-07 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 80.4 | 82.3 |
2020-08 | 97.0 | 92.2 | 91.9 | 88.6 |
2020-09 | 102.4 | 92.7 | 93.6 | 93.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] | Weights** (%) | June 20 | July 20 | Aug. 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages | 21 | 90 | 97 | 102 |
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods | 11 | 86 | 92 | 93 |
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products | 3 | 86 | 91 | 88 |
[CJ] Electrical equipment | 3 | 90 | 94 | 94 |
[CK] Machinery and equipment | 5 | 89 | 91 | 94 |
(C4) Man. of transport equipment | 18 | 80 | 92 | 94 |
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 9 | 89 | 109 | 113 |
[CL2] Other transport equipment | 10 | 78 | 79 | 78 |
(C5) Other manufacturing | 46 | 82 | 89 | 93 |
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry | 2 | 73 | 88 | 92 |
[CC] Wood, paper, printing | 5 | 90 | 95 | 99 |
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products | 8 | 79 | 76 | 83 |
[CG] Rubber and plastic products | 7 | 92 | 98 | 98 |
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products | 11 | 83 | 92 | 94 |
[CM] Other manufacturing industries | 9 | 84 | 98 | 98 |
- * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
- ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 22 October 2020 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Industry - Activity and demand