23 July 2020
2020- n° 186In July 2020, both the French business climate and the employement climate, albeit
still deteriorated, have continued to recover Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - July 2020
In July 2020, the business climate has continued its recovery started in May. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained 7 points. At 85, the business climate is however still significantly below its long-term average (100), and a fortiori below its relatively high pre-lockdown level (105).
This clear rise in the overall synthetic indicator is explained both by the pursuit of the improvement in the balances of opinion on business outlook in most of the sectors and by the beginning of the recovery in the balances of opinion on the activity of the last three months.
Companies' responses were collected between 27 June and 20 July 2020, both online and, for the first time since March, through paper forms. Therefore, the answer rate has further recovered from its April low point and is now nearing the rate usual prior to the health crisis. Furthermore, since the definitive data of April, the correction mode of non-response has been modified. Whereas the previous method was to carry on past answers from non-responding companies, we have been considering in April’s data update, May, June and July that non-responding units would have answered as their elementary stratum’s units average.
The business climate has continued to improve
In July 2020, the business climate has continued its recovery started in May. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained 7 points. At 85, the business climate is however still significantly below its long-term average (100), and a fortiori below its relatively high pre-lockdown level (105).
This clear rise in the overall synthetic indicator is explained both by the pursuit of the improvement in the balances of opinion on business outlook in most of the sectors and by the beginning of the recovery in the balances of opinion on the activity of the last three months.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 108.9 |
| 1998-02 | 110.2 |
| 1998-03 | 113.1 |
| 1998-04 | 111.0 |
| 1998-05 | 112.1 |
| 1998-06 | 113.2 |
| 1998-07 | 112.4 |
| 1998-08 | 111.5 |
| 1998-09 | 109.5 |
| 1998-10 | 106.9 |
| 1998-11 | 105.0 |
| 1998-12 | 102.2 |
| 1999-01 | 102.3 |
| 1999-02 | 102.3 |
| 1999-03 | 100.7 |
| 1999-04 | 101.6 |
| 1999-05 | 103.3 |
| 1999-06 | 102.7 |
| 1999-07 | 107.6 |
| 1999-08 | 110.5 |
| 1999-09 | 113.7 |
| 1999-10 | 115.5 |
| 1999-11 | 117.1 |
| 1999-12 | 118.5 |
| 2000-01 | 115.4 |
| 2000-02 | 115.9 |
| 2000-03 | 116.7 |
| 2000-04 | 116.5 |
| 2000-05 | 115.8 |
| 2000-06 | 117.0 |
| 2000-07 | 116.6 |
| 2000-08 | 117.2 |
| 2000-09 | 117.3 |
| 2000-10 | 115.9 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 113.1 |
| 2001-01 | 112.1 |
| 2001-02 | 112.0 |
| 2001-03 | 112.1 |
| 2001-04 | 107.1 |
| 2001-05 | 104.9 |
| 2001-06 | 103.9 |
| 2001-07 | 101.8 |
| 2001-08 | 100.4 |
| 2001-09 | 98.8 |
| 2001-10 | 94.3 |
| 2001-11 | 94.4 |
| 2001-12 | 95.0 |
| 2002-01 | 96.3 |
| 2002-02 | 96.9 |
| 2002-03 | 98.8 |
| 2002-04 | 101.9 |
| 2002-05 | 103.1 |
| 2002-06 | 102.2 |
| 2002-07 | 99.4 |
| 2002-08 | 98.7 |
| 2002-09 | 97.6 |
| 2002-10 | 96.0 |
| 2002-11 | 97.3 |
| 2002-12 | 99.8 |
| 2003-01 | 96.5 |
| 2003-02 | 95.5 |
| 2003-03 | 90.3 |
| 2003-04 | 88.3 |
| 2003-05 | 92.8 |
| 2003-06 | 92.8 |
| 2003-07 | 95.0 |
| 2003-08 | 95.9 |
| 2003-09 | 95.8 |
| 2003-10 | 96.9 |
| 2003-11 | 100.9 |
| 2003-12 | 102.1 |
| 2004-01 | 105.9 |
| 2004-02 | 104.9 |
| 2004-03 | 105.0 |
| 2004-04 | 105.8 |
| 2004-05 | 105.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.2 |
| 2004-07 | 106.6 |
| 2004-08 | 106.7 |
| 2004-09 | 106.6 |
| 2004-10 | 107.5 |
| 2004-11 | 105.1 |
| 2004-12 | 106.3 |
| 2005-01 | 105.9 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-03 | 105.6 |
| 2005-04 | 104.8 |
| 2005-05 | 102.6 |
| 2005-06 | 103.7 |
| 2005-07 | 104.3 |
| 2005-08 | 104.2 |
| 2005-09 | 103.5 |
| 2005-10 | 106.3 |
| 2005-11 | 106.4 |
| 2005-12 | 107.7 |
| 2006-01 | 108.9 |
| 2006-02 | 107.2 |
| 2006-03 | 107.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 109.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-07 | 110.7 |
| 2006-08 | 111.0 |
| 2006-09 | 111.4 |
| 2006-10 | 111.3 |
| 2006-11 | 112.1 |
| 2006-12 | 110.6 |
| 2007-01 | 110.5 |
| 2007-02 | 112.1 |
| 2007-03 | 112.6 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-05 | 113.7 |
| 2007-06 | 114.8 |
| 2007-07 | 114.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.8 |
| 2007-09 | 112.0 |
| 2007-10 | 111.2 |
| 2007-11 | 111.4 |
| 2007-12 | 111.1 |
| 2008-01 | 109.9 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-03 | 108.2 |
| 2008-04 | 105.6 |
| 2008-05 | 102.9 |
| 2008-06 | 100.1 |
| 2008-07 | 96.0 |
| 2008-08 | 94.7 |
| 2008-09 | 92.0 |
| 2008-10 | 83.6 |
| 2008-11 | 80.3 |
| 2008-12 | 76.7 |
| 2009-01 | 75.2 |
| 2009-02 | 72.8 |
| 2009-03 | 70.0 |
| 2009-04 | 71.1 |
| 2009-05 | 74.5 |
| 2009-06 | 77.3 |
| 2009-07 | 79.3 |
| 2009-08 | 83.1 |
| 2009-09 | 86.4 |
| 2009-10 | 88.9 |
| 2009-11 | 91.1 |
| 2009-12 | 91.6 |
| 2010-01 | 93.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.4 |
| 2010-04 | 97.5 |
| 2010-05 | 98.5 |
| 2010-06 | 98.1 |
| 2010-07 | 100.3 |
| 2010-08 | 102.5 |
| 2010-09 | 104.0 |
| 2010-10 | 105.0 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.8 |
| 2011-02 | 108.4 |
| 2011-03 | 109.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-06 | 108.3 |
| 2011-07 | 106.2 |
| 2011-08 | 101.2 |
| 2011-09 | 97.9 |
| 2011-10 | 96.7 |
| 2011-11 | 94.8 |
| 2011-12 | 93.5 |
| 2012-01 | 92.8 |
| 2012-02 | 92.7 |
| 2012-03 | 95.2 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-05 | 92.5 |
| 2012-06 | 91.4 |
| 2012-07 | 89.3 |
| 2012-08 | 88.9 |
| 2012-09 | 87.3 |
| 2012-10 | 85.4 |
| 2012-11 | 87.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.9 |
| 2013-01 | 87.8 |
| 2013-02 | 87.8 |
| 2013-03 | 85.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.6 |
| 2013-07 | 88.5 |
| 2013-08 | 91.7 |
| 2013-09 | 94.8 |
| 2013-10 | 94.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.6 |
| 2013-12 | 93.5 |
| 2014-01 | 94.1 |
| 2014-02 | 94.0 |
| 2014-03 | 95.3 |
| 2014-04 | 95.1 |
| 2014-05 | 94.8 |
| 2014-06 | 93.7 |
| 2014-07 | 93.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-10 | 91.2 |
| 2014-11 | 93.0 |
| 2014-12 | 93.2 |
| 2015-01 | 93.6 |
| 2015-02 | 94.4 |
| 2015-03 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 96.6 |
| 2015-05 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 98.3 |
| 2015-07 | 98.7 |
| 2015-08 | 100.2 |
| 2015-09 | 99.9 |
| 2015-10 | 100.8 |
| 2015-11 | 101.0 |
| 2015-12 | 99.5 |
| 2016-01 | 101.3 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 100.4 |
| 2016-04 | 100.5 |
| 2016-05 | 102.2 |
| 2016-06 | 100.6 |
| 2016-07 | 101.2 |
| 2016-08 | 100.8 |
| 2016-09 | 101.2 |
| 2016-10 | 101.5 |
| 2016-11 | 101.8 |
| 2016-12 | 104.0 |
| 2017-01 | 103.7 |
| 2017-02 | 104.2 |
| 2017-03 | 104.1 |
| 2017-04 | 104.3 |
| 2017-05 | 105.3 |
| 2017-06 | 106.9 |
| 2017-07 | 107.7 |
| 2017-08 | 108.6 |
| 2017-09 | 109.1 |
| 2017-10 | 109.1 |
| 2017-11 | 110.4 |
| 2017-12 | 111.4 |
| 2018-01 | 110.7 |
| 2018-02 | 109.7 |
| 2018-03 | 109.3 |
| 2018-04 | 108.5 |
| 2018-05 | 106.7 |
| 2018-06 | 106.5 |
| 2018-07 | 105.8 |
| 2018-08 | 105.2 |
| 2018-09 | 105.1 |
| 2018-10 | 104.0 |
| 2018-11 | 104.5 |
| 2018-12 | 101.6 |
| 2019-01 | 102.2 |
| 2019-02 | 103.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-05 | 106.1 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 105.4 |
| 2019-09 | 106.3 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-11 | 105.8 |
| 2019-12 | 105.1 |
| 2020-01 | 104.7 |
| 2020-02 | 105.0 |
| 2020-03 | 94.4 |
| 2020-04 | 53.4 |
| 2020-05 | 60.2 |
| 2020-06 | 78.4 |
| 2020-07 | 84.7 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The employment climate has also continued its sharp recovery
In July 2020, the employment climate has continued to recover sharply from the April low. At 77, it has gained 10 points compared to June, but it still remains far below its pre-lockdown level.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 102.3 |
| 1998-02 | 103.9 |
| 1998-03 | 105.6 |
| 1998-04 | 107.1 |
| 1998-05 | 107.6 |
| 1998-06 | 108.7 |
| 1998-07 | 109.8 |
| 1998-08 | 108.2 |
| 1998-09 | 106.6 |
| 1998-10 | 105.7 |
| 1998-11 | 105.5 |
| 1998-12 | 104.8 |
| 1999-01 | 104.2 |
| 1999-02 | 105.4 |
| 1999-03 | 106.5 |
| 1999-04 | 107.7 |
| 1999-05 | 107.9 |
| 1999-06 | 108.5 |
| 1999-07 | 109.2 |
| 1999-08 | 111.6 |
| 1999-09 | 114.0 |
| 1999-10 | 116.1 |
| 1999-11 | 116.9 |
| 1999-12 | 117.4 |
| 2000-01 | 117.9 |
| 2000-02 | 116.0 |
| 2000-03 | 114.2 |
| 2000-04 | 112.6 |
| 2000-05 | 115.9 |
| 2000-06 | 119.3 |
| 2000-07 | 116.5 |
| 2000-08 | 118.1 |
| 2000-09 | 119.1 |
| 2000-10 | 119.2 |
| 2000-11 | 121.2 |
| 2000-12 | 119.7 |
| 2001-01 | 117.8 |
| 2001-02 | 118.4 |
| 2001-03 | 117.4 |
| 2001-04 | 116.3 |
| 2001-05 | 112.7 |
| 2001-06 | 110.9 |
| 2001-07 | 107.4 |
| 2001-08 | 107.7 |
| 2001-09 | 107.4 |
| 2001-10 | 108.2 |
| 2001-11 | 103.0 |
| 2001-12 | 105.1 |
| 2002-01 | 102.8 |
| 2002-02 | 101.0 |
| 2002-03 | 102.6 |
| 2002-04 | 106.6 |
| 2002-05 | 104.3 |
| 2002-06 | 103.0 |
| 2002-07 | 103.8 |
| 2002-08 | 101.6 |
| 2002-09 | 98.8 |
| 2002-10 | 95.4 |
| 2002-11 | 98.5 |
| 2002-12 | 97.4 |
| 2003-01 | 98.3 |
| 2003-02 | 96.5 |
| 2003-03 | 93.2 |
| 2003-04 | 91.9 |
| 2003-05 | 91.1 |
| 2003-06 | 93.4 |
| 2003-07 | 94.4 |
| 2003-08 | 95.0 |
| 2003-09 | 95.1 |
| 2003-10 | 95.6 |
| 2003-11 | 95.0 |
| 2003-12 | 97.6 |
| 2004-01 | 99.1 |
| 2004-02 | 98.0 |
| 2004-03 | 101.0 |
| 2004-04 | 101.3 |
| 2004-05 | 104.0 |
| 2004-06 | 101.2 |
| 2004-07 | 102.0 |
| 2004-08 | 102.0 |
| 2004-09 | 101.6 |
| 2004-10 | 103.0 |
| 2004-11 | 103.2 |
| 2004-12 | 102.1 |
| 2005-01 | 102.4 |
| 2005-02 | 102.1 |
| 2005-03 | 104.6 |
| 2005-04 | 102.3 |
| 2005-05 | 102.9 |
| 2005-06 | 102.3 |
| 2005-07 | 102.7 |
| 2005-08 | 103.4 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 104.0 |
| 2005-11 | 103.8 |
| 2005-12 | 103.2 |
| 2006-01 | 104.0 |
| 2006-02 | 104.0 |
| 2006-03 | 104.6 |
| 2006-04 | 106.9 |
| 2006-05 | 108.0 |
| 2006-06 | 110.0 |
| 2006-07 | 109.7 |
| 2006-08 | 109.0 |
| 2006-09 | 107.9 |
| 2006-10 | 108.9 |
| 2006-11 | 110.3 |
| 2006-12 | 110.9 |
| 2007-01 | 109.2 |
| 2007-02 | 111.2 |
| 2007-03 | 110.9 |
| 2007-04 | 111.5 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-06 | 112.7 |
| 2007-07 | 111.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.4 |
| 2007-09 | 113.1 |
| 2007-10 | 111.4 |
| 2007-11 | 112.9 |
| 2007-12 | 114.4 |
| 2008-01 | 113.7 |
| 2008-02 | 113.7 |
| 2008-03 | 112.1 |
| 2008-04 | 112.4 |
| 2008-05 | 108.2 |
| 2008-06 | 104.8 |
| 2008-07 | 105.5 |
| 2008-08 | 100.9 |
| 2008-09 | 99.7 |
| 2008-10 | 95.3 |
| 2008-11 | 88.5 |
| 2008-12 | 83.6 |
| 2009-01 | 81.1 |
| 2009-02 | 79.5 |
| 2009-03 | 73.9 |
| 2009-04 | 74.5 |
| 2009-05 | 73.6 |
| 2009-06 | 74.7 |
| 2009-07 | 78.4 |
| 2009-08 | 83.0 |
| 2009-09 | 82.3 |
| 2009-10 | 84.4 |
| 2009-11 | 86.6 |
| 2009-12 | 89.0 |
| 2010-01 | 90.3 |
| 2010-02 | 90.8 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 95.5 |
| 2010-05 | 97.4 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-07 | 98.8 |
| 2010-08 | 99.2 |
| 2010-09 | 100.7 |
| 2010-10 | 103.4 |
| 2010-11 | 104.4 |
| 2010-12 | 105.2 |
| 2011-01 | 103.8 |
| 2011-02 | 109.8 |
| 2011-03 | 108.8 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-05 | 110.5 |
| 2011-06 | 110.7 |
| 2011-07 | 109.1 |
| 2011-08 | 105.1 |
| 2011-09 | 103.3 |
| 2011-10 | 100.4 |
| 2011-11 | 100.5 |
| 2011-12 | 98.8 |
| 2012-01 | 97.6 |
| 2012-02 | 97.2 |
| 2012-03 | 98.8 |
| 2012-04 | 97.6 |
| 2012-05 | 95.0 |
| 2012-06 | 93.9 |
| 2012-07 | 92.5 |
| 2012-08 | 93.5 |
| 2012-09 | 91.4 |
| 2012-10 | 91.8 |
| 2012-11 | 90.3 |
| 2012-12 | 89.9 |
| 2013-01 | 92.4 |
| 2013-02 | 89.3 |
| 2013-03 | 88.4 |
| 2013-04 | 86.9 |
| 2013-05 | 86.5 |
| 2013-06 | 89.1 |
| 2013-07 | 90.2 |
| 2013-08 | 90.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-10 | 94.6 |
| 2013-11 | 93.1 |
| 2013-12 | 95.1 |
| 2014-01 | 95.3 |
| 2014-02 | 94.6 |
| 2014-03 | 95.4 |
| 2014-04 | 98.0 |
| 2014-05 | 97.0 |
| 2014-06 | 95.4 |
| 2014-07 | 95.9 |
| 2014-08 | 94.5 |
| 2014-09 | 94.7 |
| 2014-10 | 94.6 |
| 2014-11 | 94.4 |
| 2014-12 | 94.8 |
| 2015-01 | 93.9 |
| 2015-02 | 96.0 |
| 2015-03 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 97.4 |
| 2015-05 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 99.3 |
| 2015-07 | 99.7 |
| 2015-08 | 100.5 |
| 2015-09 | 100.3 |
| 2015-10 | 100.6 |
| 2015-11 | 101.5 |
| 2015-12 | 100.8 |
| 2016-01 | 101.9 |
| 2016-02 | 100.6 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-04 | 100.5 |
| 2016-05 | 102.1 |
| 2016-06 | 101.5 |
| 2016-07 | 104.0 |
| 2016-08 | 103.2 |
| 2016-09 | 104.5 |
| 2016-10 | 104.8 |
| 2016-11 | 104.8 |
| 2016-12 | 106.4 |
| 2017-01 | 105.2 |
| 2017-02 | 104.4 |
| 2017-03 | 107.1 |
| 2017-04 | 106.3 |
| 2017-05 | 107.0 |
| 2017-06 | 107.6 |
| 2017-07 | 107.2 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-10 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 108.1 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 109.1 |
| 2018-02 | 109.7 |
| 2018-03 | 109.5 |
| 2018-04 | 108.7 |
| 2018-05 | 108.9 |
| 2018-06 | 109.7 |
| 2018-07 | 108.2 |
| 2018-08 | 107.7 |
| 2018-09 | 107.2 |
| 2018-10 | 107.0 |
| 2018-11 | 105.2 |
| 2018-12 | 104.8 |
| 2019-01 | 105.0 |
| 2019-02 | 106.8 |
| 2019-03 | 106.9 |
| 2019-04 | 106.7 |
| 2019-05 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 106.1 |
| 2019-07 | 106.0 |
| 2019-08 | 105.4 |
| 2019-09 | 105.8 |
| 2019-10 | 105.7 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 104.5 |
| 2020-02 | 104.8 |
| 2020-03 | 96.0 |
| 2020-04 | 48.6 |
| 2020-05 | 52.9 |
| 2020-06 | 66.7 |
| 2020-07 | 76.8 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The sectoral business climate for June 2020 in industry and in services, as well as the employment climate, have been revised upwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 08:45 am
