Informations rapides
23 July 2020
2020- n° 180
In July 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has improved again but remains deteriorated Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve. The composite indicator has gained 4 points compared to June, after losing 30 points in April due to the health crisis. However, at 82, it remains far below its long term average (100). The balance of opinion related to the past change in production has improved markedly and the one related to order books has recovered a bit, but both remain far below their average.

Informations rapides
No 180
Paru le :Paru le23/07/2020
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
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Companies’ responses were collected between 29 June and 20 July 2020, both online and, for the first time since March, through paper forms. Therefore, the answer rate has further recovered from its April low point and is now nearing the levels that were recorded before the health crisis.

Furthermore, since April definitive data, the correction mode of non-response has been modified. Whereas the previous method was to carry on past answers from non-responding companies, we have been considering in April’s data update, in May, in June and then in July that non-responding units would have responded as their elementary stratum’s units average.

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate in industry has continued to improve. The composite indicator has gained 4 points compared to June, after losing 30 points in April due to the health crisis. However, at 82, it remains far below its long term average (100). The balance of opinion related to the past change in production has improved markedly and the one related to order books has recovered a bit, but both remain far below their average.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.2
1998-03 117.0
1998-04 115.1
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.1
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.9
1998-11 104.1
1998-12 102.4
1999-01 101.8
1999-02 102.1
1999-03 97.0
1999-04 98.5
1999-05 100.8
1999-06 99.7
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.6
2000-02 117.6
2000-03 119.8
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.2
2000-06 124.0
2000-07 121.2
2000-08 121.3
2000-09 121.0
2000-10 119.8
2000-11 118.0
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 112.9
2001-02 113.0
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.8
2001-06 104.3
2001-07 101.7
2001-08 98.8
2001-09 95.6
2001-10 95.2
2001-11 91.2
2001-12 92.6
2002-01 93.7
2002-02 95.3
2002-03 97.2
2002-04 98.7
2002-05 102.3
2002-06 100.6
2002-07 97.5
2002-08 98.2
2002-09 99.1
2002-10 95.9
2002-11 96.6
2002-12 101.0
2003-01 97.9
2003-02 97.5
2003-03 93.1
2003-04 92.1
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 90.2
2003-07 92.9
2003-08 92.7
2003-09 92.9
2003-10 95.8
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 100.7
2004-01 100.4
2004-02 100.5
2004-03 103.7
2004-04 103.4
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 103.4
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.1
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.7
2005-05 97.2
2005-06 99.1
2005-07 100.2
2005-08 99.7
2005-09 99.1
2005-10 101.2
2005-11 101.1
2005-12 104.1
2006-01 103.1
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 107.3
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.2
2008-06 103.5
2008-07 98.9
2008-08 98.2
2008-09 91.8
2008-10 87.3
2008-11 80.1
2008-12 73.7
2009-01 72.9
2009-02 68.9
2009-03 67.0
2009-04 71.0
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.2
2009-07 76.7
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 87.7
2009-12 87.6
2010-01 90.3
2010-02 88.8
2010-03 91.3
2010-04 95.2
2010-05 96.7
2010-06 95.8
2010-07 97.3
2010-08 100.5
2010-09 103.0
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.8
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.7
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.1
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.9
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 99.3
2011-10 97.6
2011-11 97.7
2011-12 94.8
2012-01 95.1
2012-02 95.1
2012-03 96.6
2012-04 95.8
2012-05 95.0
2012-06 93.3
2012-07 91.3
2012-08 93.1
2012-09 92.9
2012-10 87.4
2012-11 91.9
2012-12 91.1
2013-01 90.1
2013-02 90.8
2013-03 90.8
2013-04 88.0
2013-05 92.3
2013-06 92.9
2013-07 94.9
2013-08 98.7
2013-09 96.1
2013-10 98.0
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.4
2014-01 99.7
2014-02 98.5
2014-03 100.9
2014-04 100.4
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.7
2014-07 96.5
2014-08 96.8
2014-09 97.0
2014-10 97.6
2014-11 99.0
2014-12 98.8
2015-01 98.9
2015-02 98.6
2015-03 99.1
2015-04 101.6
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.4
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.8
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.2
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.6
2016-01 102.8
2016-02 103.1
2016-03 102.6
2016-04 104.8
2016-05 104.5
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 101.8
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.5
2016-10 102.2
2016-11 102.1
2016-12 105.6
2017-01 105.9
2017-02 106.8
2017-03 105.7
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 113.4
2018-02 112.4
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 104.2
2018-11 105.0
2018-12 103.0
2019-01 103.2
2019-02 103.4
2019-03 103.7
2019-04 101.8
2019-05 104.0
2019-06 101.9
2019-07 101.6
2019-08 102.8
2019-09 101.9
2019-10 99.6
2019-11 101.7
2019-12 98.7
2020-01 102.1
2020-02 100.8
2020-03 97.9
2020-04 67.7
2020-05 70.8
2020-06 77.5
2020-07 82.3

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Apr. 20 May 20 June 20 July 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 68 71 78 82
Past activity 4 -29 -65 -57 -42
Finished-goods inventory 12 7 13 15 14
Overall order books -18 -52 -56 -55 -50
Export order books -14 -61 -59 -65 -63
Past workforce size -9 -10 -24 -29 -25
Expected workforce size -11 -32 -26 -20 -15
Personal production expectations 5 -69 -12 20 24
General production expectations -8 -78 -49 -15 -3
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Industrialists’ opinion on their order books has barely picked up

In July 2020, slightly fewer industrialists than in June have declared their order books to be below normal. The balances of opinion on total and foreign order books have very slightly recovered. Both stand at very low levels although slightly higher than in 2009.

However, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on the evolution of their personal production prospects has continued to recover, moving up to a high level. In June the balance had already returned above its average, after collapsing brutally in April to its lowest level since the serie has existed (1976). The balance of opinion on the evolution of general production prospects for the sector has also kept on rebounding and has moved above its average.

The balance of opinion on the past change in production has also picked up but much more progressively. It has gained 15 points in July, after 8 points in June, whereas it had lost about 60 points between March and May.

The balance regarding inventories has been practically stable a little bit above its average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past variation has picked up and the one on expected variation is still recovering gradually. Both balances remain significantly below their long-term average.

The climate indicators remain deteriorated in all sub-sectors

The business climate indicators lie well below their average in all sub-sectors. The indicator is almost stable and still relatively less deteriorated in the agrofood industry, the only sub-sector where the indicator has remained above the low points of 2009. The climates have picked up progressively in other sub-sectors.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.2 105.2 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.2 99.7 108.3
2011-03 106.7 107.5 106.1 109.6
2011-04 108.9 105.6 105.8 109.8
2011-05 109.5 104.2 105.2 107.5
2011-06 108.6 105.3 109.3 108.8
2011-07 111.1 103.3 103.9 104.9
2011-08 103.5 101.3 101.8 100.4
2011-09 101.8 100.2 98.9 98.2
2011-10 104.3 98.9 100.2 96.5
2011-11 102.2 96.6 102.2 94.3
2011-12 98.1 96.8 100.1 94.7
2012-01 99.7 96.7 95.0 94.2
2012-02 100.3 96.7 93.8 96.0
2012-03 102.1 97.2 102.9 97.3
2012-04 99.1 96.7 94.1 97.9
2012-05 93.5 95.3 95.0 96.0
2012-06 94.8 91.6 95.7 93.8
2012-07 94.7 91.4 95.2 92.5
2012-08 93.7 90.9 95.3 93.7
2012-09 96.6 91.6 97.1 93.8
2012-10 91.1 86.6 95.7 89.6
2012-11 98.3 87.9 92.9 92.5
2012-12 98.8 88.3 92.5 92.0
2013-01 97.7 88.4 92.6 91.5
2013-02 98.0 89.4 94.4 90.5
2013-03 94.0 89.6 93.9 91.4
2013-04 91.8 90.3 93.0 89.5
2013-05 91.6 90.3 95.0 92.0
2013-06 92.6 89.8 94.9 93.4
2013-07 92.2 90.4 98.8 95.1
2013-08 95.4 92.4 101.4 97.3
2013-09 94.9 90.8 97.7 97.3
2013-10 95.5 91.1 103.7 97.8
2013-11 98.2 93.4 102.0 98.7
2013-12 98.6 92.6 100.0 99.2
2014-01 99.6 92.0 102.5 98.7
2014-02 99.2 94.6 98.1 98.4
2014-03 99.8 93.5 100.7 102.4
2014-04 95.8 93.2 102.8 100.2
2014-05 98.0 94.4 98.4 99.5
2014-06 96.0 92.6 98.1 98.7
2014-07 97.1 90.1 99.3 99.1
2014-08 95.3 94.1 97.9 100.6
2014-09 94.3 92.9 100.8 97.3
2014-10 95.7 93.3 97.3 98.6
2014-11 96.3 92.9 100.1 99.8
2014-12 99.1 92.9 99.8 100.2
2015-01 103.2 94.2 101.7 99.7
2015-02 99.5 95.8 101.2 100.2
2015-03 100.8 94.9 105.2 100.1
2015-04 104.5 97.4 107.0 100.6
2015-05 102.2 97.9 104.9 101.6
2015-06 105.2 97.9 105.1 101.0
2015-07 108.8 99.1 104.8 102.8
2015-08 103.4 98.2 107.8 101.6
2015-09 105.4 96.9 108.9 102.5
2015-10 104.3 98.9 107.7 99.9
2015-11 102.2 100.4 107.7 99.5
2015-12 99.8 98.8 107.7 101.6
2016-01 101.7 101.4 108.0 99.4
2016-02 100.2 101.3 108.9 100.0
2016-03 101.7 100.0 105.9 101.1
2016-04 105.6 100.9 109.1 101.3
2016-05 103.5 98.3 106.0 103.9
2016-06 103.2 98.0 105.9 101.5
2016-07 104.5 98.5 105.1 101.8
2016-08 99.4 98.9 103.9 101.5
2016-09 108.6 99.2 105.1 100.5
2016-10 106.6 98.2 105.7 101.2
2016-11 107.7 100.4 102.4 101.3
2016-12 108.2 104.2 104.5 104.6
2017-01 104.0 103.2 106.6 105.2
2017-02 105.6 104.5 106.4 106.3
2017-03 104.6 105.5 105.5 104.8
2017-04 103.8 107.8 106.1 107.8
2017-05 106.2 109.4 105.5 107.2
2017-06 111.8 109.0 105.1 108.5
2017-07 108.8 109.6 108.2 106.9
2017-08 109.1 107.3 108.5 108.5
2017-09 106.8 107.9 109.3 108.5
2017-10 111.1 110.1 108.5 110.1
2017-11 112.2 110.2 109.2 110.9
2017-12 110.7 111.6 110.1 110.2
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.0 110.7
2018-02 110.3 111.3 112.1 110.0
2018-03 109.6 110.7 111.4 109.3
2018-04 109.7 110.8 112.6 107.8
2018-05 108.1 111.7 108.1 107.9
2018-06 110.0 108.4 109.8 105.8
2018-07 108.0 108.8 106.0 106.7
2018-08 108.2 108.5 106.6 106.0
2018-09 106.8 107.8 105.1 104.9
2018-10 102.4 107.4 103.7 102.6
2018-11 108.7 102.4 104.1 102.6
2018-12 107.3 102.7 102.2 102.1
2019-01 107.6 104.0 102.4 101.8
2019-02 108.7 105.2 100.6 101.4
2019-03 107.6 101.4 102.8 101.6
2019-04 107.2 102.0 101.3 101.1
2019-05 111.9 104.5 102.5 102.5
2019-06 108.1 99.4 100.7 101.0
2019-07 104.4 103.6 99.2 100.8
2019-08 108.8 100.3 101.5 102.0
2019-09 108.0 100.1 101.2 101.6
2019-10 105.6 97.0 100.6 98.8
2019-11 102.8 98.3 105.5 100.7
2019-12 107.5 97.7 99.0 97.7
2020-01 107.2 101.4 105.4 99.2
2020-02 108.1 99.9 100.0 100.4
2020-03 108.9 98.7 96.0 97.5
2020-04 92.7 77.3 73.6 73.9
2020-05 90.2 75.9 75.6 74.7
2020-06 90.6 79.2 77.3 79.4
2020-07 89.8 84.1 80.5 82.5

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) May 20 June 20 July 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 90 91 90
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 76 79 84
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 77 82 84
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 80 84 87
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 81 81 89
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 76 77 80
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 80 86 90
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 78 78 78
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 75 79 83
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 64 79 74
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 86 82 89
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 75 75 78
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 76 86 93
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 73 83 84
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 74 79 85
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate indicator for June has been revised upwards by one point, due to the integration of late business responses.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 8:45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 8:45

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