23 July 2020
2020- n° 185In July 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has rebounded markedly but remains
very deteriorated Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2020
According to the managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has rebounded markedly since May after having heavily fallen due to the health crisis. The composite indicator has gained 13 points over two months and stands at 80, nevertheless far below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion related to ordering intentions from wholesalers has contributed the most to the business climate indicator’s improvement.
Companies' responses were collected between 27 June and 20 July 2020, both online and, for the first time since March, through paper forms. Therefore, the answer rate has recovered from its May low point and is now nearing the rate usual prior to the health crisis. Furthermore the correction mode of non-response has been modified since May. Whereas the previous method was to carry on past answers from non-responding companies, we have been considering in May and July that non-responding units would have answered as their elementary stratum’s units average.
According to the managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has rebounded markedly since May after having heavily fallen due to the health crisis. The composite indicator has gained 13 points over two months and stands at 80, nevertheless far below its long-term average (100). The balance of opinion related to ordering intentions from wholesalers has contributed the most to the business climate indicator’s improvement.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-B1 | 110.6 |
| 1998-B2 | 114.5 |
| 1998-B3 | 114.4 |
| 1998-B4 | 112.7 |
| 1998-B5 | 106.8 |
| 1998-B6 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B1 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B2 | 98.0 |
| 1999-B3 | 101.3 |
| 1999-B4 | 100.4 |
| 1999-B5 | 109.0 |
| 1999-B6 | 113.3 |
| 2000-B1 | 116.1 |
| 2000-B2 | 112.5 |
| 2000-B3 | 115.0 |
| 2000-B4 | 117.5 |
| 2000-B5 | 115.4 |
| 2000-B6 | 113.4 |
| 2001-B1 | 109.3 |
| 2001-B2 | 112.1 |
| 2001-B3 | 105.4 |
| 2001-B4 | 103.0 |
| 2001-B5 | 101.8 |
| 2001-B6 | 96.7 |
| 2002-B1 | 97.6 |
| 2002-B2 | 92.2 |
| 2002-B3 | 91.8 |
| 2002-B4 | 91.0 |
| 2002-B5 | 93.2 |
| 2002-B6 | 97.1 |
| 2003-B1 | 96.3 |
| 2003-B2 | 89.3 |
| 2003-B3 | 88.0 |
| 2003-B4 | 87.6 |
| 2003-B5 | 88.1 |
| 2003-B6 | 90.2 |
| 2004-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2004-B2 | 94.6 |
| 2004-B3 | 98.8 |
| 2004-B4 | 100.1 |
| 2004-B5 | 99.5 |
| 2004-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.2 |
| 2005-B4 | 95.8 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.8 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.3 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.6 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.8 |
| 2009-B1 | 78.9 |
| 2009-B2 | 66.7 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.0 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | 75.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.2 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.5 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.7 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.3 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.8 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.1 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.1 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.6 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.6 |
| 2012-B6 | 88.8 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.5 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.0 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.1 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.7 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.4 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.6 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.2 |
| 2016-B1 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.6 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.6 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 106.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.2 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.4 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.3 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.7 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.5 |
| 2020-B4 | 79.6 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balances of opinion regarding future activity have bounced back strongly
All balances of opinion related to forthcoming activity have bounced back strongly in July, while remaining far below the levels preceding the health crisis. The balance on the general business outlook in wholesale trade has gained 30 points compared to May after having shed 60 points from January to May.
The balance related to total ordering intentions has also picked up and has reached -25 after a low point at -50 in May, against -8 in January 2020. This rally is strongest in the sectors that have been hit the hardest in May, that is to say in the wholesale trade of industrial capital goods and in the other specialised wholesale trade (intermediate products, fuel, chemicals and the like).
The outlook for the wholesale trade with foreign countries has improved as well. The balance related to the traders’ intention to order from abroad and the balance related to shipments to be delivered abroad have each won more than 20 points between May and July. However, they remain well below their January level.
The balances of opinion related to past activity have recovered less quickly
From May to July 2020, the balance on past sales and the balance on the volume of received merchandise have risen from 8 to 10 points. They had fallen by nearly 40 points from January to May.
The balances related to workforce have rebounded as well
The balances of opinion regarding the recent and the forecasted change in workforce size have both bounced back in July but remain far from their pre-lockdown level. The balance on its recent trend still lies below its 2009 lowest value, whereas the one on its forecasted trend has gained 12 points but remains far below its long-term average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have somewhat rallied
In July, the balances of opinion regarding selling prices, past as well as expected, have recovered moderately and still lie far below their long-term average.
Finally, fewer wholesalers have considered their cash flow situation to be difficult in July than in May. The related balance has bounced back with respect to May, yet still remains under its average.
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Jan.-20 | March-20 | May-20 | July-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 104 | 97 | 66 | 80 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -12 | -45 | -72 | -41 |
| Sales | -14 | -13 | -15 | -50 | -42 |
| export sales | -15 | -12 | -19 | -50 | -39 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -10 | -11 | -48 | -38 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -8 | -15 | -45 | -39 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -8 | -15 | -50 | -25 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -8 | -23 | -49 | -25 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -7 | -25 | -49 | -29 |
| Stocks | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 3 | -3 | -32 | -25 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 7 | 6 | -20 | -8 |
| Cash position | -9 | -4 | -5 | -35 | -17 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 4 | -4 | -4 | 2 |
| Expected selling prices | 14 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Jan.-20 | March-20 | May-20 | July-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -24 | -23 | -3 | -24 |
| Export sales | -16 | -6 | -36 | -12 | 2 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -15 | -38 | -6 | -11 |
| Ordering intentions | -12 | -7 | -27 | -25 | -19 |
| Current stock | 5 | 8 | 0 | -4 | 6 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -14 | -15 | -19 | -30 | -39 |
| Export sales | -12 | -9 | -13 | -40 | -33 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | 2 | -8 | -36 | -33 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -6 | -12 | -38 | -32 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 2 | 10 | -7 | -6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -5 | -15 | -59 | -44 |
| Export sales | -11 | -9 | -8 | -57 | -39 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -5 | -16 | -46 | -39 |
| Ordering intentions | -14 | -8 | -13 | -46 | -23 |
| Current stock | 12 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 19 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -9 | -19 | -5 | -56 | -59 |
| Export sales | -13 | -11 | -18 | -39 | -68 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -18 | -10 | -48 | -65 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -3 | -15 | -44 | -9 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | -6 | 16 | 2 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -10 | -14 | -84 | -54 |
| Export sales | -21 | -11 | -24 | -77 | -62 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -4 | -9 | -72 | -55 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -7 | -17 | -76 | -30 |
| Current stock | 12 | 20 | 14 | 27 | 8 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -14 | -10 | -63 | -36 |
| Export sales | -19 | -25 | -25 | -61 | -40 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -18 | -17 | -57 | -37 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -13 | -14 | -64 | -24 |
| Current stock | 6 | -1 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-B1 | -23.7 | 5.2 |
| 2008-B2 | -5.5 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B3 | 2.8 | -3.5 |
| 2008-B4 | -7.0 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -10.8 | -20.7 |
| 2008-B6 | -15.4 | -35.4 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.7 | -57.0 |
| 2009-B2 | -60.4 | -74.2 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.9 | -67.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -63.0 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | -56.5 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B6 | -20.5 | -68.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -13.5 | -56.7 |
| 2010-B2 | -36.0 | -57.5 |
| 2010-B3 | -0.5 | -40.3 |
| 2010-B4 | 29.5 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B5 | 19.8 | -16.0 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.9 | -18.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 14.6 | -17.4 |
| 2011-B2 | -11.2 | 1.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2011-B4 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B5 | -6.6 | 0.1 |
| 2011-B6 | -27.6 | -12.8 |
| 2012-B1 | -12.2 | -12.2 |
| 2012-B2 | -15.9 | -15.4 |
| 2012-B3 | -24.1 | -28.8 |
| 2012-B4 | -22.6 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B5 | -16.2 | -28.0 |
| 2012-B6 | -29.9 | -36.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -37.1 | -41.7 |
| 2013-B2 | -12.4 | -33.6 |
| 2013-B3 | -18.5 | -37.8 |
| 2013-B4 | -39.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B5 | -16.7 | -30.6 |
| 2013-B6 | -11.6 | -25.7 |
| 2014-B1 | -28.3 | -28.0 |
| 2014-B2 | -14.4 | -19.9 |
| 2014-B3 | -15.1 | -27.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -9.7 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B5 | -24.0 | -40.9 |
| 2014-B6 | -9.3 | -38.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -12.5 | -35.9 |
| 2015-B2 | -7.5 | -32.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 3.3 | -28.6 |
| 2015-B4 | -3.8 | -22.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -3.3 | -24.6 |
| 2015-B6 | -7.9 | -27.8 |
| 2016-B1 | 0.5 | -18.4 |
| 2016-B2 | 0.1 | -21.4 |
| 2016-B3 | -11.1 | -17.4 |
| 2016-B4 | -0.8 | -17.0 |
| 2016-B5 | -3.6 | -24.5 |
| 2016-B6 | -11.6 | -19.2 |
| 2017-B1 | -8.3 | -16.2 |
| 2017-B2 | -6.0 | -12.2 |
| 2017-B3 | -7.3 | -6.8 |
| 2017-B4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B5 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| 2017-B6 | -7.0 | 8.9 |
| 2018-B1 | -13.0 | 8.0 |
| 2018-B2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 2018-B3 | 0.9 | -5.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 7.5 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B5 | 13.4 | -6.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 5.8 | -9.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -21.4 | -16.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 20.0 | -3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 10.4 | -1.0 |
| 2019-B4 | -20.8 | -4.2 |
| 2019-B5 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 2019-B6 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
| 2020-B1 | -19.1 | -10.3 |
| 2020-B2 | -4.8 | -13.8 |
| 2020-B3 | -56.2 | -84.3 |
| 2020-B4 | -58.8 | -54.0 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 24 September 2020 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 24 September 2020 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade
