Informations rapides
27 May 2020
2020- n° 125
In May 2020, the business climate has slightly picked up in the manufacturing industry but remains very deteriorated Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - May 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate in industry has slightly picked up after plummeting last month close to its lowest level over the serie. The composite indicator has gained 2 points, after losing 30 points in April, a drop unseen since the beginning of the indicator in 1976, in relation with the health crisis. At 70, it remains far below its long term average (100). The balances of opinion related to production prospects have bounced back markedly while the one related to past activity has kept on falling.

Informations rapides
No 125
Paru le :Paru le27/05/2020
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
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Warning

Due to the context of the fight against the propagation of COVID-19, statistics published in this Informations Rapides issue could be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 28 April and 19 May 2020, to a large extent during general lockdown, and solely online. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual.

In addition, for the data for April and May, the method to correct non-response has been modified compared to the usual method which reproduces past responses from non-responding companies. We have considered that the non-responding units in April or May would have responded as the average of the responding units of the elementary stratum to which they belong. This may cause substantial downward revisions from the April data previously sent last month.

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate in industry has slightly picked up after plummeting last month close to its lowest level over the serie. The composite indicator has gained 2 points, after losing 30 points in April, a drop unseen since the beginning of the indicator in 1976, in relation with the health crisis. At 70, it remains far below its long term average (100). The balances of opinion related to production prospects have bounced back markedly while the one related to past activity has kept on falling.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.2
1998-03 117.0
1998-04 115.1
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.1
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 112.9
1998-09 112.0
1998-10 106.9
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 101.7
1999-02 102.0
1999-03 96.9
1999-04 98.4
1999-05 100.7
1999-06 99.6
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.9
1999-10 113.3
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.7
2000-02 117.6
2000-03 119.8
2000-04 119.8
2000-05 121.3
2000-06 124.1
2000-07 121.3
2000-08 121.4
2000-09 121.1
2000-10 119.8
2000-11 118.0
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 112.9
2001-02 113.0
2001-03 111.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.8
2001-06 104.2
2001-07 101.6
2001-08 98.7
2001-09 95.5
2001-10 95.1
2001-11 91.1
2001-12 92.5
2002-01 93.5
2002-02 95.2
2002-03 97.0
2002-04 98.6
2002-05 102.2
2002-06 100.4
2002-07 97.4
2002-08 98.1
2002-09 99.0
2002-10 95.8
2002-11 96.5
2002-12 101.0
2003-01 97.8
2003-02 97.4
2003-03 93.0
2003-04 91.9
2003-05 91.7
2003-06 90.1
2003-07 92.7
2003-08 92.5
2003-09 92.8
2003-10 95.7
2003-11 100.0
2003-12 100.6
2004-01 100.3
2004-02 100.4
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.1
2005-03 99.7
2005-04 96.6
2005-05 97.1
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.2
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 99.0
2005-10 101.1
2005-11 101.0
2005-12 104.1
2006-01 103.1
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.5
2007-08 110.9
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.5
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.2
2008-06 103.5
2008-07 98.9
2008-08 98.1
2008-09 91.7
2008-10 87.2
2008-11 80.0
2008-12 73.5
2009-01 72.7
2009-02 68.6
2009-03 66.7
2009-04 70.7
2009-05 72.4
2009-06 75.0
2009-07 76.5
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 84.0
2009-10 85.2
2009-11 87.6
2009-12 87.5
2010-01 90.2
2010-02 88.7
2010-03 91.1
2010-04 95.1
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 95.8
2010-07 97.3
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.8
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.7
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.1
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 109.9
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.3
2011-09 99.3
2011-10 97.5
2011-11 97.6
2011-12 94.7
2012-01 95.0
2012-02 95.0
2012-03 96.5
2012-04 95.7
2012-05 94.9
2012-06 93.2
2012-07 91.2
2012-08 93.0
2012-09 92.8
2012-10 87.2
2012-11 91.8
2012-12 91.0
2013-01 89.9
2013-02 90.6
2013-03 90.6
2013-04 87.8
2013-05 92.2
2013-06 92.8
2013-07 94.8
2013-08 98.6
2013-09 95.9
2013-10 97.9
2013-11 98.1
2013-12 99.3
2014-01 99.6
2014-02 98.4
2014-03 100.9
2014-04 100.3
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.7
2014-07 96.4
2014-08 96.7
2014-09 96.9
2014-10 97.5
2014-11 98.9
2014-12 98.7
2015-01 98.8
2015-02 98.5
2015-03 99.0
2015-04 101.6
2015-05 101.9
2015-06 100.3
2015-07 101.6
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.2
2015-11 102.3
2015-12 102.5
2016-01 102.7
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.8
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.5
2016-07 101.7
2016-08 101.7
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 102.1
2016-11 102.1
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.9
2017-02 106.7
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.8
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 113.4
2018-02 112.4
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 109.9
2018-06 109.5
2018-07 108.5
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 105.0
2018-12 103.0
2019-01 103.1
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.7
2019-05 104.0
2019-06 101.8
2019-07 101.5
2019-08 102.7
2019-09 101.8
2019-10 99.5
2019-11 101.7
2019-12 98.6
2020-01 102.0
2020-02 100.7
2020-03 97.9
2020-04 67.5
2020-05 70.5

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Feb. 20 Mar. 20 Apr. 20 May. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 101 98 68 70
Past activity 5 -5 7 -29 -65
Finished-goods inventory 12 3 3 7 14
Overall order books -18 -11 -16 -52 -55
Export order books -14 -17 -19 -61 -60
Past workforce size -9 -2 -3 -10 -24
Expected workforce size -11 -2 -5 -32 -26
Personal production expectations 5 7 -7 -69 -12
General production expectations -8 0 -33 -78 -49
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Production prospects have improved slightly

In May 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on personal production prospects for the next three months has recovered sharply, after collapsing to -68 in April, its lowest level since the serie has existed (1976). It thus stands at -12 in May, close to its mid-2009 level, a year during which the balance had reached its lowest point in January (-32) then had gradually recovered. This balance remains a few points below its March level, far below its average (5). The balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector has also picked up but stays well below its March level, that was already markedly deteriorated.

The balances of opinion on past production has kept on diving and has reached a new lowest point since the serie has existed. The balance on total order books has decreased a little further, and the one on foreign order books has steadied, both at very low levels although higher than in 2009.

The balance regarding inventories has risen again and moved above its average.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past variation has deteriorated sharply again. However, the one on expected variation has bounced back. Both balances remain significantly below their long-term average.

Very deteriorated situation in all sub-sectors

The business climate indicators lie well below their average in all sub-sectors. The indicator is still relatively less deteriorated in the agrofood industry, the only sub-sector where the indicator has remained above the low points of 2009.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.1 105.1 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.2 99.6 108.2
2011-03 106.6 107.5 106.1 109.6
2011-04 108.8 105.5 105.7 109.8
2011-05 109.5 104.1 105.1 107.5
2011-06 108.6 105.2 109.3 108.7
2011-07 111.0 103.3 103.8 104.8
2011-08 103.4 101.2 101.7 100.3
2011-09 101.8 100.1 98.7 98.1
2011-10 104.2 98.7 100.1 96.3
2011-11 102.2 96.4 102.1 94.1
2011-12 98.1 96.7 100.0 94.5
2012-01 99.7 96.6 94.9 94.1
2012-02 100.3 96.5 93.6 95.9
2012-03 102.1 97.1 102.8 97.2
2012-04 99.0 96.6 93.9 97.8
2012-05 93.5 95.2 94.8 95.9
2012-06 94.7 91.5 95.6 93.7
2012-07 94.7 91.3 95.0 92.4
2012-08 93.6 90.8 95.1 93.6
2012-09 96.6 91.5 97.0 93.7
2012-10 91.0 86.4 95.6 89.4
2012-11 98.3 87.7 92.7 92.3
2012-12 98.8 88.1 92.3 91.9
2013-01 97.6 88.2 92.4 91.3
2013-02 98.0 89.2 94.2 90.3
2013-03 94.0 89.4 93.7 91.3
2013-04 91.8 90.2 92.8 89.3
2013-05 91.6 90.1 94.8 91.9
2013-06 92.5 89.7 94.7 93.3
2013-07 92.1 90.2 98.7 95.0
2013-08 95.3 92.3 101.3 97.2
2013-09 94.9 90.7 97.5 97.1
2013-10 95.4 91.0 103.6 97.7
2013-11 98.1 93.3 101.9 98.6
2013-12 98.6 92.4 99.9 99.1
2014-01 99.5 91.9 102.4 98.6
2014-02 99.1 94.5 97.9 98.3
2014-03 99.8 93.3 100.6 102.3
2014-04 95.7 93.0 102.7 100.1
2014-05 97.9 94.3 98.2 99.4
2014-06 95.9 92.4 98.0 98.6
2014-07 97.0 89.9 99.2 99.0
2014-08 95.3 94.0 97.8 100.6
2014-09 94.3 92.7 100.7 97.2
2014-10 95.6 93.1 97.2 98.4
2014-11 96.2 92.7 100.0 99.7
2014-12 99.0 92.7 99.7 100.1
2015-01 103.2 94.1 101.6 99.6
2015-02 99.4 95.7 101.0 100.2
2015-03 100.7 94.7 105.1 100.0
2015-04 104.4 97.2 106.9 100.6
2015-05 102.2 97.7 104.9 101.5
2015-06 105.2 97.8 105.0 100.9
2015-07 108.7 99.0 104.8 102.7
2015-08 103.4 98.1 107.8 101.5
2015-09 105.4 96.8 108.9 102.5
2015-10 104.2 98.8 107.7 99.8
2015-11 102.2 100.2 107.7 99.4
2015-12 99.7 98.7 107.7 101.5
2016-01 101.7 101.3 108.0 99.3
2016-02 100.1 101.2 108.9 99.8
2016-03 101.7 99.9 105.8 101.0
2016-04 105.5 100.8 109.1 101.2
2016-05 103.4 98.1 105.9 103.8
2016-06 103.2 97.9 105.8 101.4
2016-07 104.5 98.3 105.1 101.7
2016-08 99.4 98.8 103.8 101.4
2016-09 108.5 99.1 105.1 100.4
2016-10 106.5 98.1 105.6 101.1
2016-11 107.6 100.3 102.3 101.2
2016-12 108.2 104.1 104.4 104.5
2017-01 104.0 103.1 106.6 105.1
2017-02 105.5 104.5 106.3 106.2
2017-03 104.6 105.4 105.4 104.7
2017-04 103.7 107.8 106.0 107.8
2017-05 106.1 109.4 105.4 107.2
2017-06 111.8 109.0 105.1 108.4
2017-07 108.8 109.5 108.2 106.8
2017-08 109.0 107.3 108.5 108.4
2017-09 106.8 107.8 109.3 108.4
2017-10 111.1 110.0 108.5 110.1
2017-11 112.1 110.1 109.1 110.8
2017-12 110.7 111.6 110.1 110.2
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.0 110.6
2018-02 110.2 111.3 112.1 110.0
2018-03 109.5 110.6 111.4 109.3
2018-04 109.6 110.7 112.6 107.7
2018-05 108.1 111.6 108.1 107.8
2018-06 110.0 108.4 109.8 105.7
2018-07 108.0 108.8 105.9 106.6
2018-08 108.1 108.5 106.5 105.9
2018-09 106.7 107.8 105.0 104.8
2018-10 102.4 107.3 103.6 102.5
2018-11 108.6 102.3 104.0 102.5
2018-12 107.3 102.6 102.1 102.0
2019-01 107.5 103.9 102.3 101.7
2019-02 108.6 105.2 100.5 101.3
2019-03 107.6 101.2 102.7 101.5
2019-04 107.1 101.9 101.2 101.0
2019-05 111.9 104.4 102.4 102.4
2019-06 108.1 99.3 100.5 100.9
2019-07 104.3 103.5 99.1 100.7
2019-08 108.7 100.2 101.4 101.9
2019-09 107.9 100.0 101.1 101.5
2019-10 105.5 96.8 100.5 98.7
2019-11 102.7 98.2 105.4 100.6
2019-12 107.4 97.6 98.9 97.5
2020-01 107.2 101.3 105.3 99.0
2020-02 108.1 99.7 99.9 100.3
2020-03 108.9 98.6 95.9 97.4
2020-04 92.6 77.1 73.2 73.6
2020-05 92.3 75.3 75.3 74.0

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Mar. 20 Apr. 20 May. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 109 93 92
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 99 77 75
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 102 78 76
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 99 73 82
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 97 85 80
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 96 73 75
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 96 75 80
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 96 77 78
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 97 74 74
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 104 65 64
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 103 84 86
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 89 79 75
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 98 72 76
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 97 78 71
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 99 70 74
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

Most of the balances of opinion for April have been revised downwards as compared to their provisionnary values published in April. The business climate indicator of April is lowered by 14 points. These revisions are mainly due to the change in the method to correct non-response (see Warning).

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 24 June 2020 at 8:45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 24 June 2020 at 8:45

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