26 March 2020
N° 2020-75

In March 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has sharply deterioratedMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - March 2020

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in industry has sharply deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost three points and fallen to 98, below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have plummeted. Besides, the February business climate has been revised downwards by one point, due to the integration of late business responses.

Informations rapides
No 75
Paru le : Paru le 26/03/2020
Prochaine parution le : 22/04/2020 at 08:45 - April 2020
Informations rapides  No 75 - March 2020
Warning

Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in industry has sharply deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost three points and fallen to 98, below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have plummeted. Besides, the February business climate has been revised downwards by one point, due to the integration of late business responses.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.7
1998-02 113.3
1998-03 117.2
1998-04 115.3
1998-05 115.0
1998-06 115.3
1998-07 113.9
1998-08 113.0
1998-09 112.1
1998-10 106.8
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 101.6
1999-02 102.0
1999-03 96.7
1999-04 98.2
1999-05 100.6
1999-06 99.5
1999-07 105.9
1999-08 109.1
1999-09 112.0
1999-10 113.4
1999-11 116.7
1999-12 114.4
2000-01 115.8
2000-02 117.8
2000-03 120.0
2000-04 120.0
2000-05 121.4
2000-06 124.4
2000-07 121.5
2000-08 121.6
2000-09 121.3
2000-10 120.1
2000-11 118.2
2000-12 114.3
2001-01 113.0
2001-02 113.1
2001-03 111.7
2001-04 107.3
2001-05 105.7
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.5
2001-09 95.3
2001-10 94.8
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.2
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 95.0
2002-03 96.9
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.1
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 97.9
2002-09 98.8
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.9
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 97.3
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.7
2003-05 91.4
2003-06 89.7
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.3
2003-09 92.6
2003-10 95.5
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.3
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.3
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 105.1
2004-08 105.2
2004-09 105.2
2004-10 105.0
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.2
2005-01 103.2
2005-02 103.1
2005-03 99.6
2005-04 96.4
2005-05 96.9
2005-06 98.9
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.5
2005-09 98.9
2005-10 101.0
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.0
2006-01 103.0
2006-02 106.6
2006-03 106.4
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.7
2006-07 108.9
2006-08 108.5
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.7
2006-12 109.3
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.8
2007-03 111.3
2007-04 112.0
2007-05 110.1
2007-06 111.2
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 111.0
2007-09 110.6
2007-10 110.0
2007-11 112.3
2007-12 112.6
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.4
2008-03 110.0
2008-04 107.5
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.9
2008-09 91.4
2008-10 86.8
2008-11 79.4
2008-12 72.9
2009-01 72.0
2009-02 67.9
2009-03 66.0
2009-04 70.0
2009-05 71.8
2009-06 74.5
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 80.6
2009-09 83.7
2009-10 84.9
2009-11 87.4
2009-12 87.2
2010-01 90.0
2010-02 88.4
2010-03 90.9
2010-04 95.0
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 95.6
2010-07 97.1
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 102.9
2010-10 104.1
2010-11 101.7
2010-12 104.2
2011-01 108.8
2011-02 106.9
2011-03 110.2
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.2
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 94.8
2012-02 94.7
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.6
2012-06 92.9
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.7
2012-09 92.5
2012-10 86.8
2012-11 91.5
2012-12 90.7
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.3
2013-03 90.3
2013-04 87.5
2013-05 91.9
2013-06 92.5
2013-07 94.6
2013-08 98.5
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.8
2013-11 98.0
2013-12 99.2
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.2
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.2
2014-05 98.2
2014-06 96.5
2014-07 96.2
2014-08 96.5
2014-09 96.7
2014-10 97.4
2014-11 98.8
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.9
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 101.8
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.5
2015-08 103.6
2015-09 104.7
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.2
2015-12 102.4
2016-01 102.6
2016-02 103.0
2016-03 102.5
2016-04 104.7
2016-05 104.4
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.6
2016-08 101.6
2016-09 103.3
2016-10 102.0
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 105.5
2017-01 105.8
2017-02 106.7
2017-03 105.6
2017-04 108.7
2017-05 108.9
2017-06 108.9
2017-07 108.1
2017-08 110.3
2017-09 110.9
2017-10 111.0
2017-11 111.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 113.5
2018-02 112.5
2018-03 110.6
2018-04 110.7
2018-05 110.0
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.6
2018-08 109.1
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.1
2018-11 105.0
2018-12 102.9
2019-01 103.0
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 103.6
2019-04 101.6
2019-05 103.9
2019-06 101.7
2019-07 101.4
2019-08 102.6
2019-09 101.7
2019-10 99.4
2019-11 101.5
2019-12 98.4
2020-01 101.9
2020-02 100.5
2020-03 98.4

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* Dec. 19 Jan. 20 Feb. 20 Mar. 20
Manufacturing industry
Composite indicator 100 98 102 101 98
Past activity 5 -1 -3 -5 0
Finished-goods inventory 12 15 7 3 3
Overall order books -17 -18 -10 -11 -10
Export order books -14 -16 -8 -17 -16
Past workforce size -9 -2 -3 -2 -3
Expected workforce size -11 0 -2 -2 -7
Personal production expectations 5 4 8 7 -4
General production expectations -8 -5 -5 0 -33
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Industrialists worry about production prospects

In March 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector have collapsed, by more than thirty points, and has reached its lowest level since mid 2013. The balance of opinion on personal production prospects has also slumped, but less severly. The balances on overall and foreign order books have been stable or almost, but that reflects essentially the opinion of the industrialists in early March. The balance of opinion on past production has picked up and the one on finished-goods inventories is stable.

Considering employment, the balance of opinion on recent variations has slightly deteriorated and the one on expected variations has fallen sharply.

Looking at sub-sectors, the business climate indicator has improved slightly in the agrofood industry, but has been stable or deteriorating in all the other sub-sectors. The results in some sub-sectors, including especially the manufacture of transport equipment, are statistically more fragile this month as a result of lower than usual response rates.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.3 105.1 105.0 105.1
2011-02 107.5 103.1 99.4 108.3
2011-03 106.6 107.5 106.0 109.6
2011-04 108.7 105.5 105.6 109.9
2011-05 109.4 104.1 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.5 105.2 109.3 108.8
2011-07 110.9 103.2 103.7 104.8
2011-08 103.4 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 101.8 100.0 98.6 97.9
2011-10 104.2 98.6 100.0 96.1
2011-11 102.1 96.2 102.0 93.9
2011-12 98.0 96.6 99.9 94.3
2012-01 99.7 96.4 94.6 93.9
2012-02 100.3 96.3 93.3 95.7
2012-03 102.0 96.9 102.7 97.0
2012-04 98.9 96.4 93.7 97.7
2012-05 93.5 95.0 94.6 95.7
2012-06 94.7 91.2 95.3 93.4
2012-07 94.7 91.0 94.8 92.1
2012-08 93.6 90.5 94.9 93.3
2012-09 96.5 91.2 96.8 93.4
2012-10 91.0 86.0 95.3 89.1
2012-11 98.2 87.4 92.4 92.0
2012-12 98.7 87.8 92.0 91.6
2013-01 97.6 87.9 92.1 90.9
2013-02 98.0 88.9 94.0 90.0
2013-03 93.9 89.2 93.5 91.0
2013-04 91.7 89.9 92.5 89.0
2013-05 91.6 89.9 94.6 91.6
2013-06 92.5 89.4 94.5 93.0
2013-07 92.1 90.0 98.5 94.8
2013-08 95.2 92.1 101.2 97.0
2013-09 94.8 90.4 97.3 97.0
2013-10 95.4 90.7 103.5 97.6
2013-11 98.1 93.1 101.8 98.5
2013-12 98.5 92.1 99.7 99.0
2014-01 99.4 91.6 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.1 94.2 97.8 98.1
2014-03 99.7 93.1 100.4 102.2
2014-04 95.7 92.8 102.6 99.9
2014-05 97.8 94.1 98.0 99.2
2014-06 95.9 92.2 97.8 98.4
2014-07 96.9 89.7 99.0 98.8
2014-08 95.2 93.7 97.6 100.4
2014-09 94.3 92.5 100.6 96.9
2014-10 95.6 92.9 97.0 98.3
2014-11 96.2 92.5 99.9 99.6
2014-12 99.0 92.5 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.1 93.8 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.3 95.5 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.7 94.5 105.1 99.8
2015-04 104.4 97.0 106.9 100.4
2015-05 102.2 97.5 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.1 97.6 105.0 100.7
2015-07 108.6 98.8 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.3 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.4 96.6 108.9 102.4
2015-10 104.2 98.7 107.7 99.6
2015-11 102.1 100.1 107.7 99.2
2015-12 99.7 98.5 107.6 101.4
2016-01 101.7 101.1 107.9 99.1
2016-02 100.1 101.1 108.9 99.7
2016-03 101.6 99.7 105.8 100.8
2016-04 105.5 100.7 109.1 101.0
2016-05 103.4 98.0 105.9 103.7
2016-06 103.1 97.7 105.7 101.3
2016-07 104.4 98.2 105.0 101.6
2016-08 99.3 98.6 103.7 101.3
2016-09 108.4 98.9 105.0 100.3
2016-10 106.4 97.9 105.6 101.0
2016-11 107.6 100.2 102.2 101.1
2016-12 108.1 104.0 104.3 104.5
2017-01 103.9 103.0 106.6 105.1
2017-02 105.5 104.4 106.3 106.1
2017-03 104.5 105.4 105.4 104.7
2017-04 103.6 107.8 105.9 107.8
2017-05 106.0 109.4 105.4 107.2
2017-06 111.7 108.9 105.0 108.4
2017-07 108.7 109.6 108.2 106.8
2017-08 109.0 107.2 108.5 108.4
2017-09 106.7 107.8 109.3 108.4
2017-10 111.0 110.0 108.4 110.1
2017-11 112.1 110.2 109.1 110.9
2017-12 110.6 111.6 110.1 110.3
2018-01 111.2 113.2 112.0 110.7
2018-02 110.2 111.3 112.1 110.0
2018-03 109.5 110.7 111.4 109.3
2018-04 109.6 110.7 112.6 107.7
2018-05 108.0 111.6 108.1 107.8
2018-06 109.9 108.4 109.8 105.7
2018-07 107.9 108.7 105.9 106.6
2018-08 108.1 108.5 106.5 105.9
2018-09 106.7 107.7 104.9 104.7
2018-10 102.4 107.3 103.5 102.4
2018-11 108.6 102.2 103.9 102.5
2018-12 107.2 102.5 102.0 101.9
2019-01 107.5 103.8 102.2 101.6
2019-02 108.6 105.1 100.4 101.2
2019-03 107.5 101.1 102.6 101.4
2019-04 107.1 101.8 101.0 100.9
2019-05 111.8 104.3 102.3 102.3
2019-06 108.0 99.2 100.4 100.8
2019-07 104.3 103.4 98.9 100.6
2019-08 108.7 100.1 101.3 101.8
2019-09 107.9 99.8 100.9 101.4
2019-10 105.5 96.6 100.4 98.5
2019-11 102.7 98.0 105.4 100.4
2019-12 107.4 97.5 98.7 97.3
2020-01 107.1 101.2 105.3 98.8
2020-02 108.0 99.6 99.7 100.1
2020-03 109.5 99.9 99.4 97.2

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Jan. 19 Feb. 20 Mar. 20
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 107 108 109
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 101 100 100
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 111 104 102
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 98 99 102
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 96 98 98
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 18 105 100 99
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 101 103 98
[CL2] Other transport equipment 10 105 96 97
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 99 100 97
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 110 102 100
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 103 106 104
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 8 95 95 90
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 98 99 96
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 94 96 96
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 10 107 108 103
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45


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