26 March 2020
2020- n° 75In March 2020, the business climate in the manufacturing industry has sharply deteriorated Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - March 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in industry has sharply deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost three points and fallen to 98, below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have plummeted. Besides, the February business climate has been revised downwards by one point, due to the integration of late business responses.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in industry has sharply deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost three points and fallen to 98, below its long term average (100). In particular, the balances of opinion related to production prospects have plummeted. Besides, the February business climate has been revised downwards by one point, due to the integration of late business responses.
tableauBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-01 | 112.7 |
1998-02 | 113.3 |
1998-03 | 117.2 |
1998-04 | 115.3 |
1998-05 | 115.0 |
1998-06 | 115.3 |
1998-07 | 113.9 |
1998-08 | 113.0 |
1998-09 | 112.1 |
1998-10 | 106.8 |
1998-11 | 104.0 |
1998-12 | 102.2 |
1999-01 | 101.6 |
1999-02 | 102.0 |
1999-03 | 96.7 |
1999-04 | 98.2 |
1999-05 | 100.6 |
1999-06 | 99.5 |
1999-07 | 105.9 |
1999-08 | 109.1 |
1999-09 | 112.0 |
1999-10 | 113.4 |
1999-11 | 116.7 |
1999-12 | 114.4 |
2000-01 | 115.8 |
2000-02 | 117.8 |
2000-03 | 120.0 |
2000-04 | 120.0 |
2000-05 | 121.4 |
2000-06 | 124.4 |
2000-07 | 121.5 |
2000-08 | 121.6 |
2000-09 | 121.3 |
2000-10 | 120.1 |
2000-11 | 118.2 |
2000-12 | 114.3 |
2001-01 | 113.0 |
2001-02 | 113.1 |
2001-03 | 111.7 |
2001-04 | 107.3 |
2001-05 | 105.7 |
2001-06 | 104.1 |
2001-07 | 101.5 |
2001-08 | 98.5 |
2001-09 | 95.3 |
2001-10 | 94.8 |
2001-11 | 90.8 |
2001-12 | 92.2 |
2002-01 | 93.3 |
2002-02 | 95.0 |
2002-03 | 96.9 |
2002-04 | 98.4 |
2002-05 | 102.1 |
2002-06 | 100.3 |
2002-07 | 97.3 |
2002-08 | 97.9 |
2002-09 | 98.8 |
2002-10 | 95.6 |
2002-11 | 96.3 |
2002-12 | 100.9 |
2003-01 | 97.6 |
2003-02 | 97.3 |
2003-03 | 92.7 |
2003-04 | 91.7 |
2003-05 | 91.4 |
2003-06 | 89.7 |
2003-07 | 92.5 |
2003-08 | 92.3 |
2003-09 | 92.6 |
2003-10 | 95.5 |
2003-11 | 99.9 |
2003-12 | 100.5 |
2004-01 | 100.2 |
2004-02 | 100.3 |
2004-03 | 103.6 |
2004-04 | 103.3 |
2004-05 | 104.7 |
2004-06 | 105.3 |
2004-07 | 105.1 |
2004-08 | 105.2 |
2004-09 | 105.2 |
2004-10 | 105.0 |
2004-11 | 103.1 |
2004-12 | 103.2 |
2005-01 | 103.2 |
2005-02 | 103.1 |
2005-03 | 99.6 |
2005-04 | 96.4 |
2005-05 | 96.9 |
2005-06 | 98.9 |
2005-07 | 100.1 |
2005-08 | 99.5 |
2005-09 | 98.9 |
2005-10 | 101.0 |
2005-11 | 100.9 |
2005-12 | 104.0 |
2006-01 | 103.0 |
2006-02 | 106.6 |
2006-03 | 106.4 |
2006-04 | 107.9 |
2006-05 | 108.8 |
2006-06 | 108.7 |
2006-07 | 108.9 |
2006-08 | 108.5 |
2006-09 | 108.0 |
2006-10 | 107.2 |
2006-11 | 109.7 |
2006-12 | 109.3 |
2007-01 | 108.2 |
2007-02 | 111.8 |
2007-03 | 111.3 |
2007-04 | 112.0 |
2007-05 | 110.1 |
2007-06 | 111.2 |
2007-07 | 111.6 |
2007-08 | 111.0 |
2007-09 | 110.6 |
2007-10 | 110.0 |
2007-11 | 112.3 |
2007-12 | 112.6 |
2008-01 | 110.5 |
2008-02 | 110.4 |
2008-03 | 110.0 |
2008-04 | 107.5 |
2008-05 | 104.1 |
2008-06 | 103.4 |
2008-07 | 98.7 |
2008-08 | 97.9 |
2008-09 | 91.4 |
2008-10 | 86.8 |
2008-11 | 79.4 |
2008-12 | 72.9 |
2009-01 | 72.0 |
2009-02 | 67.9 |
2009-03 | 66.0 |
2009-04 | 70.0 |
2009-05 | 71.8 |
2009-06 | 74.5 |
2009-07 | 75.9 |
2009-08 | 80.6 |
2009-09 | 83.7 |
2009-10 | 84.9 |
2009-11 | 87.4 |
2009-12 | 87.2 |
2010-01 | 90.0 |
2010-02 | 88.4 |
2010-03 | 90.9 |
2010-04 | 95.0 |
2010-05 | 96.5 |
2010-06 | 95.6 |
2010-07 | 97.1 |
2010-08 | 100.4 |
2010-09 | 102.9 |
2010-10 | 104.1 |
2010-11 | 101.7 |
2010-12 | 104.2 |
2011-01 | 108.8 |
2011-02 | 106.9 |
2011-03 | 110.2 |
2011-04 | 110.1 |
2011-05 | 107.2 |
2011-06 | 110.0 |
2011-07 | 104.8 |
2011-08 | 101.2 |
2011-09 | 99.1 |
2011-10 | 97.3 |
2011-11 | 97.4 |
2011-12 | 94.5 |
2012-01 | 94.8 |
2012-02 | 94.7 |
2012-03 | 96.3 |
2012-04 | 95.5 |
2012-05 | 94.6 |
2012-06 | 92.9 |
2012-07 | 90.9 |
2012-08 | 92.7 |
2012-09 | 92.5 |
2012-10 | 86.8 |
2012-11 | 91.5 |
2012-12 | 90.7 |
2013-01 | 89.6 |
2013-02 | 90.3 |
2013-03 | 90.3 |
2013-04 | 87.5 |
2013-05 | 91.9 |
2013-06 | 92.5 |
2013-07 | 94.6 |
2013-08 | 98.5 |
2013-09 | 95.8 |
2013-10 | 97.8 |
2013-11 | 98.0 |
2013-12 | 99.2 |
2014-01 | 99.5 |
2014-02 | 98.2 |
2014-03 | 100.8 |
2014-04 | 100.2 |
2014-05 | 98.2 |
2014-06 | 96.5 |
2014-07 | 96.2 |
2014-08 | 96.5 |
2014-09 | 96.7 |
2014-10 | 97.4 |
2014-11 | 98.8 |
2014-12 | 98.6 |
2015-01 | 98.7 |
2015-02 | 98.4 |
2015-03 | 98.9 |
2015-04 | 101.5 |
2015-05 | 101.8 |
2015-06 | 100.2 |
2015-07 | 101.5 |
2015-08 | 103.6 |
2015-09 | 104.7 |
2015-10 | 103.1 |
2015-11 | 102.2 |
2015-12 | 102.4 |
2016-01 | 102.6 |
2016-02 | 103.0 |
2016-03 | 102.5 |
2016-04 | 104.7 |
2016-05 | 104.4 |
2016-06 | 101.4 |
2016-07 | 101.6 |
2016-08 | 101.6 |
2016-09 | 103.3 |
2016-10 | 102.0 |
2016-11 | 102.0 |
2016-12 | 105.5 |
2017-01 | 105.8 |
2017-02 | 106.7 |
2017-03 | 105.6 |
2017-04 | 108.7 |
2017-05 | 108.9 |
2017-06 | 108.9 |
2017-07 | 108.1 |
2017-08 | 110.3 |
2017-09 | 110.9 |
2017-10 | 111.0 |
2017-11 | 111.5 |
2017-12 | 111.5 |
2018-01 | 113.5 |
2018-02 | 112.5 |
2018-03 | 110.6 |
2018-04 | 110.7 |
2018-05 | 110.0 |
2018-06 | 109.6 |
2018-07 | 108.6 |
2018-08 | 109.1 |
2018-09 | 107.1 |
2018-10 | 104.1 |
2018-11 | 105.0 |
2018-12 | 102.9 |
2019-01 | 103.0 |
2019-02 | 103.3 |
2019-03 | 103.6 |
2019-04 | 101.6 |
2019-05 | 103.9 |
2019-06 | 101.7 |
2019-07 | 101.4 |
2019-08 | 102.6 |
2019-09 | 101.7 |
2019-10 | 99.4 |
2019-11 | 101.5 |
2019-12 | 98.4 |
2020-01 | 101.9 |
2020-02 | 100.5 |
2020-03 | 98.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
tableauIndustrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity
Ave.* | Dec. 19 | Jan. 20 | Feb. 20 | Mar. 20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manufacturing industry | |||||
Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 102 | 101 | 98 |
Past activity | 5 | -1 | -3 | -5 | 0 |
Finished-goods inventory | 12 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Overall order books | -17 | -18 | -10 | -11 | -10 |
Export order books | -14 | -16 | -8 | -17 | -16 |
Past workforce size | -9 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -3 |
Expected workforce size | -11 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -7 |
Personal production expectations | 5 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -4 |
General production expectations | -8 | -5 | -5 | 0 | -33 |
- * Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
Industrialists worry about production prospects
In March 2020, the industrialists’ balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector have collapsed, by more than thirty points, and has reached its lowest level since mid 2013. The balance of opinion on personal production prospects has also slumped, but less severly. The balances on overall and foreign order books have been stable or almost, but that reflects essentially the opinion of the industrialists in early March. The balance of opinion on past production has picked up and the one on finished-goods inventories is stable.
Considering employment, the balance of opinion on recent variations has slightly deteriorated and the one on expected variations has fallen sharply.
Looking at sub-sectors, the business climate indicator has improved slightly in the agrofood industry, but has been stable or deteriorating in all the other sub-sectors. The results in some sub-sectors, including especially the manufacture of transport equipment, are statistically more fragile this month as a result of lower than usual response rates.
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) | (C3) | (C4) | (C5) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
2011-01 | 109.3 | 105.1 | 105.0 | 105.1 |
2011-02 | 107.5 | 103.1 | 99.4 | 108.3 |
2011-03 | 106.6 | 107.5 | 106.0 | 109.6 |
2011-04 | 108.7 | 105.5 | 105.6 | 109.9 |
2011-05 | 109.4 | 104.1 | 105.0 | 107.5 |
2011-06 | 108.5 | 105.2 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
2011-07 | 110.9 | 103.2 | 103.7 | 104.8 |
2011-08 | 103.4 | 101.1 | 101.6 | 100.2 |
2011-09 | 101.8 | 100.0 | 98.6 | 97.9 |
2011-10 | 104.2 | 98.6 | 100.0 | 96.1 |
2011-11 | 102.1 | 96.2 | 102.0 | 93.9 |
2011-12 | 98.0 | 96.6 | 99.9 | 94.3 |
2012-01 | 99.7 | 96.4 | 94.6 | 93.9 |
2012-02 | 100.3 | 96.3 | 93.3 | 95.7 |
2012-03 | 102.0 | 96.9 | 102.7 | 97.0 |
2012-04 | 98.9 | 96.4 | 93.7 | 97.7 |
2012-05 | 93.5 | 95.0 | 94.6 | 95.7 |
2012-06 | 94.7 | 91.2 | 95.3 | 93.4 |
2012-07 | 94.7 | 91.0 | 94.8 | 92.1 |
2012-08 | 93.6 | 90.5 | 94.9 | 93.3 |
2012-09 | 96.5 | 91.2 | 96.8 | 93.4 |
2012-10 | 91.0 | 86.0 | 95.3 | 89.1 |
2012-11 | 98.2 | 87.4 | 92.4 | 92.0 |
2012-12 | 98.7 | 87.8 | 92.0 | 91.6 |
2013-01 | 97.6 | 87.9 | 92.1 | 90.9 |
2013-02 | 98.0 | 88.9 | 94.0 | 90.0 |
2013-03 | 93.9 | 89.2 | 93.5 | 91.0 |
2013-04 | 91.7 | 89.9 | 92.5 | 89.0 |
2013-05 | 91.6 | 89.9 | 94.6 | 91.6 |
2013-06 | 92.5 | 89.4 | 94.5 | 93.0 |
2013-07 | 92.1 | 90.0 | 98.5 | 94.8 |
2013-08 | 95.2 | 92.1 | 101.2 | 97.0 |
2013-09 | 94.8 | 90.4 | 97.3 | 97.0 |
2013-10 | 95.4 | 90.7 | 103.5 | 97.6 |
2013-11 | 98.1 | 93.1 | 101.8 | 98.5 |
2013-12 | 98.5 | 92.1 | 99.7 | 99.0 |
2014-01 | 99.4 | 91.6 | 102.3 | 98.4 |
2014-02 | 99.1 | 94.2 | 97.8 | 98.1 |
2014-03 | 99.7 | 93.1 | 100.4 | 102.2 |
2014-04 | 95.7 | 92.8 | 102.6 | 99.9 |
2014-05 | 97.8 | 94.1 | 98.0 | 99.2 |
2014-06 | 95.9 | 92.2 | 97.8 | 98.4 |
2014-07 | 96.9 | 89.7 | 99.0 | 98.8 |
2014-08 | 95.2 | 93.7 | 97.6 | 100.4 |
2014-09 | 94.3 | 92.5 | 100.6 | 96.9 |
2014-10 | 95.6 | 92.9 | 97.0 | 98.3 |
2014-11 | 96.2 | 92.5 | 99.9 | 99.6 |
2014-12 | 99.0 | 92.5 | 99.5 | 99.9 |
2015-01 | 103.1 | 93.8 | 101.5 | 99.4 |
2015-02 | 99.3 | 95.5 | 100.9 | 100.0 |
2015-03 | 100.7 | 94.5 | 105.1 | 99.8 |
2015-04 | 104.4 | 97.0 | 106.9 | 100.4 |
2015-05 | 102.2 | 97.5 | 104.8 | 101.3 |
2015-06 | 105.1 | 97.6 | 105.0 | 100.7 |
2015-07 | 108.6 | 98.8 | 104.7 | 102.7 |
2015-08 | 103.3 | 97.9 | 107.7 | 101.4 |
2015-09 | 105.4 | 96.6 | 108.9 | 102.4 |
2015-10 | 104.2 | 98.7 | 107.7 | 99.6 |
2015-11 | 102.1 | 100.1 | 107.7 | 99.2 |
2015-12 | 99.7 | 98.5 | 107.6 | 101.4 |
2016-01 | 101.7 | 101.1 | 107.9 | 99.1 |
2016-02 | 100.1 | 101.1 | 108.9 | 99.7 |
2016-03 | 101.6 | 99.7 | 105.8 | 100.8 |
2016-04 | 105.5 | 100.7 | 109.1 | 101.0 |
2016-05 | 103.4 | 98.0 | 105.9 | 103.7 |
2016-06 | 103.1 | 97.7 | 105.7 | 101.3 |
2016-07 | 104.4 | 98.2 | 105.0 | 101.6 |
2016-08 | 99.3 | 98.6 | 103.7 | 101.3 |
2016-09 | 108.4 | 98.9 | 105.0 | 100.3 |
2016-10 | 106.4 | 97.9 | 105.6 | 101.0 |
2016-11 | 107.6 | 100.2 | 102.2 | 101.1 |
2016-12 | 108.1 | 104.0 | 104.3 | 104.5 |
2017-01 | 103.9 | 103.0 | 106.6 | 105.1 |
2017-02 | 105.5 | 104.4 | 106.3 | 106.1 |
2017-03 | 104.5 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 104.7 |
2017-04 | 103.6 | 107.8 | 105.9 | 107.8 |
2017-05 | 106.0 | 109.4 | 105.4 | 107.2 |
2017-06 | 111.7 | 108.9 | 105.0 | 108.4 |
2017-07 | 108.7 | 109.6 | 108.2 | 106.8 |
2017-08 | 109.0 | 107.2 | 108.5 | 108.4 |
2017-09 | 106.7 | 107.8 | 109.3 | 108.4 |
2017-10 | 111.0 | 110.0 | 108.4 | 110.1 |
2017-11 | 112.1 | 110.2 | 109.1 | 110.9 |
2017-12 | 110.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 110.3 |
2018-01 | 111.2 | 113.2 | 112.0 | 110.7 |
2018-02 | 110.2 | 111.3 | 112.1 | 110.0 |
2018-03 | 109.5 | 110.7 | 111.4 | 109.3 |
2018-04 | 109.6 | 110.7 | 112.6 | 107.7 |
2018-05 | 108.0 | 111.6 | 108.1 | 107.8 |
2018-06 | 109.9 | 108.4 | 109.8 | 105.7 |
2018-07 | 107.9 | 108.7 | 105.9 | 106.6 |
2018-08 | 108.1 | 108.5 | 106.5 | 105.9 |
2018-09 | 106.7 | 107.7 | 104.9 | 104.7 |
2018-10 | 102.4 | 107.3 | 103.5 | 102.4 |
2018-11 | 108.6 | 102.2 | 103.9 | 102.5 |
2018-12 | 107.2 | 102.5 | 102.0 | 101.9 |
2019-01 | 107.5 | 103.8 | 102.2 | 101.6 |
2019-02 | 108.6 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 101.2 |
2019-03 | 107.5 | 101.1 | 102.6 | 101.4 |
2019-04 | 107.1 | 101.8 | 101.0 | 100.9 |
2019-05 | 111.8 | 104.3 | 102.3 | 102.3 |
2019-06 | 108.0 | 99.2 | 100.4 | 100.8 |
2019-07 | 104.3 | 103.4 | 98.9 | 100.6 |
2019-08 | 108.7 | 100.1 | 101.3 | 101.8 |
2019-09 | 107.9 | 99.8 | 100.9 | 101.4 |
2019-10 | 105.5 | 96.6 | 100.4 | 98.5 |
2019-11 | 102.7 | 98.0 | 105.4 | 100.4 |
2019-12 | 107.4 | 97.5 | 98.7 | 97.3 |
2020-01 | 107.1 | 101.2 | 105.3 | 98.8 |
2020-02 | 108.0 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 100.1 |
2020-03 | 109.5 | 99.9 | 99.4 | 97.2 |
graphiqueBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
tableauBusiness climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] | Weights** (%) | Jan. 19 | Feb. 20 | Mar. 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages | 21 | 107 | 108 | 109 |
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods | 11 | 101 | 100 | 100 |
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products | 3 | 111 | 104 | 102 |
[CJ] Electrical equipment | 3 | 98 | 99 | 102 |
[CK] Machinery and equipment | 5 | 96 | 98 | 98 |
(C4) Man. of transport equipment | 18 | 105 | 100 | 99 |
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 8 | 101 | 103 | 98 |
[CL2] Other transport equipment | 10 | 105 | 96 | 97 |
(C5) Other manufacturing | 46 | 99 | 100 | 97 |
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry | 2 | 110 | 102 | 100 |
[CC] Wood, paper, printing | 5 | 103 | 106 | 104 |
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products | 8 | 95 | 95 | 90 |
[CG] Rubber and plastic products | 7 | 98 | 99 | 96 |
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products | 11 | 94 | 96 | 96 |
[CM] Other manufacturing industries | 10 | 107 | 108 | 103 |
- * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
- ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 8:45
Time series : Industry - Activity and demand