31 January 2020
2020- n° 23In Q4 2019, GDP fell slightly (–0.1%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2019
In Q4 2019, GDP in volume terms fell slightly: –0.1%, after +0.3% in Q3 2019. On average over the year, activity slowed down in 2019: +1.2% after +1.7% in 2018.
Household consumption expenditures slowed down slightly (+0.2% after +0.4%), and total gross fixed capital formation decelerated in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: +0.3% after +1.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes slowed down compared with the previous quarter: it contributed to +0.3 points to GDP growth, after +0.7 points.
Imports fell back this quarter (–0.2% after +0.6%) as well as exports (–0.2% after –0.3%). All in all, the contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP growth was zero, after a negative contribution (–0.3 points) in the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (–0.4 points after –0.1 points).
- Total production decreased in Q4 2019 and slowed down over the year
- Household consumption slowed slightly in Q4 2019, but accelerated over the year
- Investment slowed down significantly in Q4 2019, but increased over the year
- Foreign trade balance contribute for zero to GDP growth in Q4 2019
- Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth
- Revisions
- To go further
In Q4 2019, GDP in volume terms fell slightly: –0.1%, after +0.3% in Q3 2019. On average over the year, activity slowed down in 2019: +1.2% after +1.7% in 2018.
Household consumption expenditures slowed down slightly (+0.2% after +0.4%), and total gross fixed capital formation decelerated in a more pronounced manner (GFCF: +0.3% after +1.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes slowed down compared with the previous quarter: it contributed to +0.3 points to GDP growth, after +0.7 points.
Imports fell back this quarter (–0.2% after +0.6%) as well as exports (–0.2% after –0.3%). All in all, the contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP growth was zero, after a negative contribution (–0.3 points) in the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (–0.4 points after –0.1 points).
tableauGDP and its main components
| Consumption | GFCF | Inventory changes | Net foreign trade | GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-Q1 | 0.65 | 0.21 | -0.37 | 0.12 | 0.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.2 | -0.04 | -0.68 | 0.24 | -0.3 |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 0.44 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.59 | 0.22 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.76 | -0.67 | 0.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.3 | 0.21 | -0.59 | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.14 | -0.18 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.11 | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.45 | 0.8 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.14 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0.12 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | -0.07 | 0.19 | 0.11 | -0.05 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | 0.24 | 0.2 | -0.36 | 0.22 | 0.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.29 | 0.21 | -0.27 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
| 2019-Q1 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.26 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q2 | 0.25 | 0.29 | -0.19 | 0.01 | 0.4 |
| 2019-Q3 | 0.35 | 0.31 | -0.12 | -0.28 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q4 | 0.25 | 0.07 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
graphiqueGDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE.
tableauGDP and its main components
| 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Imports | 1.2 | -0.2 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Household consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| GFCF | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Households | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| General government | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Exports | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Inventory changes | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Net foreign trade | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production decreased in Q4 2019 and slowed down over the year
Production of goods and services fell back compared to the previous quarter (–0.2% after +0.3%). Output stepped back sharply in goods (–1.5% after –0.6%), declined in construction (–0.3% after +0.7%) and slowed down in market services (+0.3% after +0.6%) with the decline in transport services.
Output in manufactured goods decreased sharply (–1.6% after –0.6%), particularly in coking and refining due to a refinery maintenance and strikes.
On average over the year, total production was less dynamic than in 2018 (+1.6% after +2.0%). Output in manufactured goods declined in 2019 (–0.2% after +0.6%) while services output slowed down slightly (+2.2% after +2.5%).
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goods | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -1.5 | 0.6 | -0.3 |
| Manufactured industry | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.6 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| Construction | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Market services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Non-market services | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Household consumption | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Food products | -1.0 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.4 | -1.4 | -1.8 |
| Energy | 0.3 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Engineered goods | 0.8 | -0.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Services | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| GFCF | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Manufactured goods | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Construction | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Market services | -0.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
- Source: Insee
Household consumption slowed slightly in Q4 2019, but accelerated over the year
Household consumption decelerated slightly in Q4 2019 (+0.2% after +0.4%), both in goods (+0.4% after +0.5%) and in services (+0.2% after +0.4%). The consumption of transport services fell sharply by –2.0% in relation to the social movements of October and December 2019.
Regarding goods, consumption on manufactured goods slowed down (+1.2% after +1.6%) while spending on energy fell (–1.2% after –0.1%) mainly due to mild weather. By contrast, food expenditure rebounded (+0.4% after –0.7%).
On average over the year, household consumption accelerated slightly in 2019 (+1.2% after +0.9%).
Investment slowed down significantly in Q4 2019, but increased over the year
In Q4 2019, total GFCF slowed clearly (+0.3% after +1.3%). Corporate investment decelerated compared with the previous quarter (+0.3% after +1.6%), particularly in construction (–0.2% after +0.9%), capital goods and transport equipment. Household investment also slowed down (+0.5% after +0.9%).
Over 2019 as a whole, total GFCF accelerated sharply (+3.6% after +2.8%).
Foreign trade balance contribute for zero to GDP growth in Q4 2019
In Q4 2019, imports declined (–0.2% after +0.6%): the decrease in crude oil purchases was only partially offset by the increase in refined oil purchases. Exports fell again (–0.2% after –0.3%): the decline in deliveries of energy and pharmaceutical products was partly offset by a rebound in exports of transport equipment, including the delivery of a cruise ship.
All in all, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was zero in Q4 2019 (0.0 points after –0.3 points).
Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth
In Q4 2019, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (–0.4 points after –0.1 points), especially in transport equipment and capital goods.
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 | |
| HDI (purchasing power) | 0.6 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 15.1 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
| 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 32.1 | 32.6 | 32.5 | 31.2 | |
| Investment ratio | 24.3 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 24.1 | |
| Savings ratio | 23.5 | 24.1 | 23.2 | 22.6 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 96.6 | 98.4 | 93.6 | 93.7 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2019 Q1 | 2019 Q2 | 2019 Q3 | 2019 Q4 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 333.8 | 335.1 | 336.9 | 1318.8 | |
| Total receipts | 315.1 | 317.1 | 321.7 | 1259.1 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -18.7 | -18.0 | -15.2 | -59.7 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -3.1 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.5 | |
- Source: Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q3 2019 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
To go further
Next publication: February 28, 2020 at 08:45 a.m.
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