8 January 2020
N° 2020-2

In December 2019, households’ confidence has declined sharplyMonthly consumer confidence survey - December 2019

In December 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation has declined for the first time since December 2018. At 102, the synthetic index has lost three points. Nevertheless, it remains above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 2
Paru le : Paru le 08/01/2020
Prochaine parution le : 29/01/2020 at 08:45 - January 2020
Informations rapides  No 2 - January 2020

In December 2019, households’ confidence in the economic situation has declined for the first time since December 2018. At 102, the synthetic index has lost three points. Nevertheless, it remains above its long-term average (100).

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index ()
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 119
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 123
2000-07 124
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 120
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 121
2001-05 116
2001-06 115
2001-07 114
2001-08 113
2001-09 111
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 112
2002-04 109
2002-05 113
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 108
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 98
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 91
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 88
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 81
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 83
2008-10 81
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 83
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 91
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 85
2011-09 84
2011-10 86
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 91
2012-07 88
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 86
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 85
2014-05 85
2014-06 85
2014-07 86
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 89
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 93
2015-07 93
2015-08 93
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 96
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 96
2016-07 95
2016-08 96
2016-09 97
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 100
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 103
2017-09 101
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 106
2018-01 105
2018-02 101
2018-03 100
2018-04 101
2018-05 99
2018-06 96
2018-07 96
2018-08 96
2018-09 94
2018-10 94
2018-11 91
2018-12 88
2019-01 92
2019-02 95
2019-03 96
2019-04 97
2019-05 99
2019-06 101
2019-07 102
2019-08 103
2019-09 104
2019-10 104
2019-11 105
2019-12 102

Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE.

Personal situation

Past and future financial situation: decrease

In December, households' opinion balance on their future financial situation has lost four points and is back to its long-term average. The balance related to their past financial situation has fallen by one point and remains above its long-term average.

Furthermore, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased compared to the previous month: the corresponding balance has lost two points and remains well above its average.

Expected saving capacity: sharp decrease

In December, households’ opinion on their expected saving capacity has deteriorated: the corresponding balance has fallen by four points. On the other hand, the balance related to their current saving capacity has increased by one point. Both balances remain above their long-term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has been stable: the corresponding balance thus remains below its long-term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France ()
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -68 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -31
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -53 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -73 -22 -34
2014-01 -48 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -23 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -31
2014-10 -50 -74 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -43 -66 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -66 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -57 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -14 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -59 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -54 -10 -24
2015-12 -30 -54 -7 -26
2016-01 -27 -55 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -35 -57 -12 -24
2016-04 -36 -57 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -54 -10 -23
2016-07 -33 -53 -10 -28
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -29 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -28 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -26 -49 -8 -24
2016-12 -22 -51 -7 -22
2017-01 -27 -48 -5 -22
2017-02 -23 -48 -5 -22
2017-03 -23 -48 -7 -20
2017-04 -22 -50 -10 -19
2017-05 -17 -45 -6 -19
2017-06 1 -40 -4 -14
2017-07 -11 -40 -11 -17
2017-08 -20 -40 -9 -18
2017-09 -21 -42 -11 -21
2017-10 -24 -40 -16 -21
2017-11 -19 -39 -10 -20
2017-12 -12 -31 -9 -17
2018-01 -19 -30 -12 -16
2018-02 -24 -35 -18 -23
2018-03 -24 -39 -12 -24
2018-04 -22 -35 -11 -26
2018-05 -28 -39 -14 -25
2018-06 -32 -46 -14 -27
2018-07 -32 -47 -12 -28
2018-08 -30 -47 -12 -30
2018-09 -36 -50 -17 -30
2018-10 -32 -53 -16 -30
2018-11 -44 -58 -18 -29
2018-12 -37 -66 -21 -33
2019-01 -32 -63 -14 -28
2019-02 -28 -56 -12 -25
2019-03 -28 -53 -10 -26
2019-04 -29 -53 -8 -25
2019-05 -25 -50 -5 -23
2019-06 -23 -43 -6 -22
2019-07 -24 -42 -5 -21
2019-08 -22 -43 -4 -18
2019-09 -22 -39 -2 -18
2019-10 -23 -38 -4 -18
2019-11 -22 -35 -2 -18
2019-12 -28 -39 -6 -19

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE.

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted )
Avg. (1) Sept 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19
Synthetic index (2) 100 104 104 105 102
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -18 -18 -18 -19
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -2 -4 -2 -6
Current saving capacity 9 14 14 13 14
Expected saving capacity -9 4 -1 0 -4
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 10 11 10 10
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -7 -6 -5 -7
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -39 -38 -35 -39
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -22 -23 -22 -28
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 2 3 2 8
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -27 -27 -32 -34
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -25 -23 -25 -25
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2019
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2019).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: strong decline

In December, the share of households considering that the past standard of living in France has improved during the past twelve months has declined strongly: the corresponding balance has lost four points but still stands above its long-term average.

Households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France has declined slightly more sharply, losing six points and falling below its average.

Unemployment: rising fears

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have risen sharply in December: the corresponding balance has gained six points after two months of virtual stability. Nevertheless, it remains well below its long-term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations (Balance, SA)
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 35
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 38
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 55
2014-02 55
2014-03 54
2014-04 57
2014-05 61
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 65
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 43
2015-04 61
2015-05 61
2015-06 60
2015-07 58
2015-08 50
2015-09 45
2015-10 47
2015-11 36
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 44
2016-03 39
2016-04 51
2016-05 25
2016-06 26
2016-07 28
2016-08 33
2016-09 29
2016-10 30
2016-11 29
2016-12 18
2017-01 18
2017-02 19
2017-03 20
2017-04 15
2017-05 22
2017-06 6
2017-07 9
2017-08 -1
2017-09 16
2017-10 13
2017-11 5
2017-12 6
2018-01 0
2018-02 4
2018-03 4
2018-04 3
2018-05 4
2018-06 16
2018-07 14
2018-08 24
2018-09 23
2018-10 7
2018-11 30
2018-12 29
2019-01 32
2019-02 11
2019-03 20
2019-04 25
2019-05 14
2019-06 14
2019-07 12
2019-08 7
2019-09 2
2019-10 3
2019-11 2
2019-12 8

Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE.

Perceived inflation: slight drop

In December, households considering that prices were on the rise during the past twelve months have been less numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance has lost two points and remains well below its long-term average.

Households’ opinion balance about future prices has remained unchanged, above its long-term average.

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices (Balance, SA)
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -17
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -24
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -23
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -14 -16
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -28
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -36
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -37
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -46
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -48
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -53 -41
2015-10 -50 -41
2015-11 -50 -41
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -42
2016-02 -56 -39
2016-03 -58 -37
2016-04 -58 -37
2016-05 -53 -38
2016-06 -53 -35
2016-07 -51 -36
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -46 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -52 -39
2016-12 -48 -29
2017-01 -43 -25
2017-02 -46 -31
2017-03 -47 -25
2017-04 -51 -27
2017-05 -56 -33
2017-06 -56 -40
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -54 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -45 -28
2017-12 -46 -34
2018-01 -40 -17
2018-02 -34 -20
2018-03 -39 -23
2018-04 -40 -25
2018-05 -31 -17
2018-06 -27 -19
2018-07 -25 -20
2018-08 -25 -21
2018-09 -15 -16
2018-10 -15 -16
2018-11 -10 -13
2018-12 -9 -24
2019-01 -32 -42
2019-02 -27 -18
2019-03 -20 -22
2019-04 -19 -21
2019-05 -20 -21
2019-06 -20 -21
2019-07 -25 -22
2019-08 -26 -21
2019-09 -27 -25
2019-10 -27 -23
2019-11 -32 -25
2019-12 -34 -25

Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE.

Revision

Due to the annual re-estimationof the seasonal adjustment coefficients, several models have been updated and long-term averages have been recalculated. However, these changes did not lead to any major revision of the data already published. The confidence synthetic index of November 2019 was revised downwards by one point (at 105).

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgment of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between November 27 and December 17 2019. For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication.

Next publication: January 29 2020 at 8:45 am

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)


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