21 November 2019
N° 2019-302

In November 2019, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate has improvedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - November 2019

In November 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100).

Compared to the previous month, the business climate has gained two points in retail trade and one point in industry. It remains stable in services and has lost a point in building construction, as well as, compared to September, in wholesale trade. In most sectors, the business climate is above its long-term average, except in industry where it has just reached it.

Informations rapides
No 302
Paru le : Paru le 21/11/2019
Prochaine parution le : 19/12/2019 at 08:45 - December 2019
Informations rapides  No 302 - November 2019
Warning

In November, the platform on which companies answer business surveys has been unavailable for a few days. Therefore, the results for November might be revised more than usually for the December publication, which will take into account the answers received late.

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term average

In November 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100).

Compared to the previous month, the business climate has gained two points in retail trade and one point in industry. It remains stable in services and has lost a point in building construction, as well as, compared to September, in wholesale trade. In most sectors, the business climate is above its long-term average, except in industry where it has just reached it.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.2
1999-02 102.3
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 103.1
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.7
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 94.0
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.4
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 103.0
2002-06 102.0
2002-07 99.1
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 96.0
2003-02 95.0
2003-03 89.6
2003-04 87.3
2003-05 92.0
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.4
2003-09 95.3
2003-10 96.4
2003-11 100.5
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.8
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.7
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 104.0
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.2
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.2
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.7
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.8
2008-05 103.0
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.7
2008-08 94.3
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 82.6
2008-11 79.2
2008-12 75.4
2009-01 73.5
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.1
2009-04 68.9
2009-05 72.6
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.6
2009-08 81.5
2009-09 85.0
2009-10 87.7
2009-11 90.0
2009-12 90.6
2010-01 92.7
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.2
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.8
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.3
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 93.0
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 92.0
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.6
2012-07 88.4
2012-08 87.8
2012-09 86.3
2012-10 84.2
2012-11 86.1
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.7
2013-02 86.6
2013-03 84.7
2013-04 83.1
2013-05 84.2
2013-06 85.4
2013-07 87.3
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 93.8
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.6
2013-12 92.5
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.0
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 94.3
2014-05 93.9
2014-06 92.8
2014-07 92.2
2014-08 90.9
2014-09 90.2
2014-10 90.3
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.3
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 93.5
2015-03 94.6
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.7
2015-06 97.6
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.4
2015-11 100.5
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.2
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.1
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.1
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.4
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.6
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.0
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.3
2019-10 105.4
2019-11 105.3

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
July 19 Aug. 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19
Business climates
France 105 105 106 105 105
Manufacturing 101 103 102 99 100
Building construction 111 111 112 112 111
Services 105 105 106 106 106
Retail trade 105 100 105 105 107
Wholesale trade 106 106 105
Employment climate
Employment 106 105 106 106 108
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has improved and stands at a high level

In November 2019, the employment climate has gained two points. At 108, the indicator that synthesizes it has reached its highest level since August 2018, well above its long-term average. The increase in the balance of opinion on the past change in the workforce size in services is somewhat tempered by the decline in the number of employees expected in the retail sector.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.6
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.0
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 103.9
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.6
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.9
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.1
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.8
2002-12 96.5
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 91.8
2003-04 90.4
2003-05 89.5
2003-06 92.3
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 94.0
2003-09 94.2
2003-10 94.8
2003-11 93.9
2003-12 96.9
2004-01 98.5
2004-02 97.2
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.2
2004-06 101.0
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.3
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.3
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.7
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.0
2006-03 104.7
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 109.3
2006-11 111.0
2006-12 111.7
2007-01 109.7
2007-02 111.9
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.8
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 114.2
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.7
2007-12 115.3
2008-01 114.6
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.7
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.8
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.4
2008-10 94.4
2008-11 86.8
2008-12 81.4
2009-01 78.6
2009-02 77.1
2009-03 70.9
2009-04 71.5
2009-05 70.5
2009-06 71.7
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 81.1
2009-09 80.3
2009-10 82.3
2009-11 84.6
2009-12 87.2
2010-01 88.7
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.1
2010-11 104.2
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.3
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.8
2011-11 99.9
2011-12 98.1
2012-01 96.7
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.1
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 93.9
2012-06 92.6
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.2
2012-09 90.1
2012-10 90.3
2012-11 88.7
2012-12 88.2
2013-01 91.1
2013-02 87.6
2013-03 86.7
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 84.5
2013-06 87.4
2013-07 88.6
2013-08 89.3
2013-09 90.8
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 91.8
2013-12 93.8
2014-01 94.2
2014-02 93.5
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 97.3
2014-05 96.1
2014-06 94.4
2014-07 94.8
2014-08 93.4
2014-09 93.6
2014-10 93.6
2014-11 93.3
2014-12 93.8
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 95.1
2015-03 94.3
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.7
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 99.8
2015-10 100.2
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.5
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.2
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.0
2016-09 104.8
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.7
2017-01 105.3
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.3
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 107.0
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.4
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 108.3
2018-08 107.7
2018-09 107.4
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.3
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.0
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.6
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 106.0
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 107.9

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning-point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning-point indicator for the French economy remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
July 19 Aug. 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19
France 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7
Manufacturing 0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.6
Building construction 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6
Services 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7
Wholesale trade 0.7 - 0.6 - 0.6
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.61
2010-02 0.53
2010-03 0.62
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.81
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.38
2016-08 0.41
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.81
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89
2019-10 0.74
2019-11 0.66

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate two months ago, the composite business climate indicator in wholesale trade in September 2019 have been revised upwards by one point. This revision results mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 19 December 2019 at 08:45 am


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