30 October 2019
N° 2019-285

French GDP rose by 0.3% in Q3 2019Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2019

In Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.

Informations rapides
No 285
Paru le : Paru le 30/10/2019
Prochaine parution le : 31/01/2020 at 07:30 - fourth quarter 2019
Informations rapides  No 285 - October 2019

In Q3 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as the two previous quarters: +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes remained dynamic and grew at the same pace as the previous quarter: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth.

Imports bounced back strongly (+1.4% after –0.3%) and exports grew this quarter (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: –0.4 points, after 0.0 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.1 points after –0.2 points).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components ()
Consumption GFCF Inventory changes Net foreign trade GDP
2016-Q1 0.67 0.21 -0.36 0.11 0.6
2016-Q2 0.18 -0.04 -0.68 0.25 -0.3
2016-Q3 0.1 0.1 0.45 -0.4 0.3
2016-Q4 0.6 0.21 -0.43 0.21 0.6
2017-Q1 0.19 0.52 0.78 -0.69 0.8
2017-Q2 0.28 0.21 -0.6 0.79 0.7
2017-Q3 0.44 0.28 0.17 -0.19 0.7
2017-Q4 0.12 0.2 -0.04 0.44 0.7
2018-Q1 0.13 -0.01 -0.01 0.11 0.2
2018-Q2 -0.08 0.18 0.09 -0.01 0.2
2018-Q3 0.24 0.22 -0.31 0.18 0.3
2018-Q4 0.31 0.19 -0.29 0.24 0.4
2019-Q1 0.19 0.12 0.27 -0.31 0.3
2019-Q2 0.21 0.29 -0.21 0.05 0.3
2019-Q3 0.27 0.22 0.14 -0.37 0.3

GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE.

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2018 2019 (ovhg)
GDP 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.2
Imports 1.2 1.1 -0.3 1.4 1.2 2.6
Household consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.1
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0
GFCF 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.9 2.8 3.3
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 3.9 3.9
Households -0.2 0.2 1.6 0.1 2.0 1.6
General government 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 2.4 3.9
Exports 2.0 0.2 -0.1 0.3 3.5 2.1
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.6
Inventory changes -0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade 0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.7 -0.2
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Total production kept increasing

Production of goods and services decelerated slightly compared to the previous quarter (+0.3% after +0.4%). Output in goods stepped back again (–0.4% after –0.2%), while it grew at almost the same pace as the previous quarter in services (+0.5% after 0.6%).

Output in manufactured goods kept decreasing (–0.4% after –0.5%). Output decreased in all manufacturing sectors except for transport equipment.

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2018 2019 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 2.0 1.6
Goods 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.3
Manufactured industry 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.3
Construction 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.8 2.2
Market services 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 3.1 2.4
Non-market services 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0
Household consumption 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.1
Food products -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.4 -1.9
Energy -0.4 0.9 0.8 -0.3 -1.0 0.2
Engineered goods -0.2 0.6 -0.4 1.6 0.7 1.1
Services 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.9 1.7
GFCF 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.9 2.8 3.3
Manufactured goods 0.1 1.2 0.9 1.2 2.1 3.6
Construction 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.5 2.3
Market services 1.4 -0.1 2.0 1.2 4.9 4.3
  • Source: Insee

Household consumption accelerated slightly

Household consumption accelerated slightly in Q3 2019 (+0.3% after +0.2%), mainly due to the rebound of the consumption of goods (+0.4% after –0.1%).On the contrary, consumption of services decelerated (+0.3% after +0.4%), due to a slow in expenditure on accommodation and food services after a dynamic second quarter.

Regarding goods, expenditures on engineered goods bounced back (+1.6% after –0.4%), driven by a rise in vehicle registration. Energy expenditures went back (–0.3% after +0.8%). Finally, food expenditures decreased at a faster pace as in the previous quarter (–0.7% after –0.1%).

Corporate investment kept increasing, household investment remained slack

In Q3 2019, total GFCF kept increasing (+0.9% after +1.2%). Corporate investment grew at the same pace as the previous quarter (+1.2% after +1.1%), driven by expenditures in information-communication services and in transport equipment. Household investment halted (+0.1% after +1.6%), after the rise of real estate transactions in Q2 2019.

Foreign trade balance contribute negatively to GDP growth

Imports returned to growth (+1.4% after –0.3%), driven by the rise of car purchases and aircraft equipment. Exports bounced back slightly (+0.3% after –0.1%). All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth (–0.4 points after 0.0 points).

Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth

In Q3 2019, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.1 points (after –0.2 points).

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2018 2019 (Q2 ovhg)
HDI 1.4 1.0 0.2 - 2.7 2.8
HDI (purchasing power) 1.2 0.8 -0.2 - 1.2 1.9
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 1.0 0.7 -0.4 - 0.7 1.4
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 1.0 0.6 -0.1 - 1.2 1.6
Saving rate (level) 14.9 15.2 14.8 - 14.2 -
Financial saving rate (level) 4.8 5.3 4.6 - 4.0 -
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2018
Profit share 31.6 32.5 33.1 - 31.2
Investment ratio 24.4 24.2 24.4 - 24.1
Savings ratio 22.3 23.9 24.6 - 22.6
Self-financing ratio 91.5 98.7 100.8 - 93.7
  • Source: Insee

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2018
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 332.1 333.5 334.6 - 1318.8
Total receipts 316.9 312.8 314.4 - 1259.1
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -15.2 -20.7 -20.2 - -59.7
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.6 -3.4 -3.3 - -2.5
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2019 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

To go further

Next publication: November 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.


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