23 October 2019
N° 2019-272

In October 2019, the French business climate has slightly weakened and the employment climate is stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - October 2019

In October 2019, the business climate has slightly weakened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction, in services and in retail trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 272
Paru le : Paru le 23/10/2019
Prochaine parution le : 19/12/2019 at 08:45 - December 2019
Informations rapides  No 272 - October 2019

The French business climate has slightly weakened while remaining above its long-term mean

In October 2019, the business climate has slightly weakened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction, in services and in retail trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.3
1999-02 102.3
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.5
1999-05 103.2
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.7
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 94.0
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.5
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 103.0
2002-06 102.0
2002-07 99.1
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.3
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 96.0
2003-02 95.0
2003-03 89.7
2003-04 87.3
2003-05 92.0
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.4
2003-09 95.4
2003-10 96.4
2003-11 100.5
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.8
2004-02 104.9
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.7
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.1
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 104.0
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.2
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.7
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.8
2008-05 103.0
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.7
2008-08 94.3
2008-09 91.6
2008-10 82.6
2008-11 79.2
2008-12 75.4
2009-01 73.6
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.1
2009-04 69.0
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.7
2009-08 81.5
2009-09 85.1
2009-10 87.7
2009-11 90.0
2009-12 90.6
2010-01 92.7
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.2
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.8
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.4
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 93.0
2012-01 92.2
2012-02 92.0
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.6
2012-07 88.4
2012-08 87.9
2012-09 86.3
2012-10 84.2
2012-11 86.1
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.7
2013-02 86.6
2013-03 84.7
2013-04 83.1
2013-05 84.3
2013-06 85.4
2013-07 87.3
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 93.8
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.7
2013-12 92.5
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 94.3
2014-05 94.0
2014-06 92.8
2014-07 92.2
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.3
2014-10 90.3
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.4
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 93.5
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.7
2015-06 97.6
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.4
2015-11 100.5
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.2
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.1
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.5
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.2
2019-10 105.4

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
June 19 July 19 Aug, 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19
Business climates
France 106 105 105 106 105
Manufacturing 102 101 103 102 99
Building construction 111 111 111 112 112
Services 107 105 105 106 106
Retail trade 104 105 100 105 105
Wholesale trade - 106 - 105 -
Employment climate
Employment 106 106 105 106 106
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is stable, above its long-term mean

In October 2019, the employment climate is stable: the associate composite indicator remains at 106, above its long-term mean. The increase in the balances of opinion on past employment both in non-interim services and in retail trade is offset by decrease in other balances.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.7
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.4
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.6
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.9
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.1
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.8
2002-12 96.5
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 91.8
2003-04 90.4
2003-05 89.5
2003-06 92.3
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 94.0
2003-09 94.2
2003-10 94.8
2003-11 93.9
2003-12 97.0
2004-01 98.6
2004-02 97.2
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.2
2004-06 101.0
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.3
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.3
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.3
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.2
2005-11 103.8
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.1
2006-03 104.6
2006-04 107.4
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.5
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.4
2006-11 111.1
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.1
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.5
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.4
2008-11 87.0
2008-12 81.6
2009-01 78.8
2009-02 77.1
2009-03 70.9
2009-04 71.5
2009-05 70.5
2009-06 71.7
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.2
2009-10 82.4
2009-11 84.8
2009-12 87.4
2010-01 88.9
2010-02 89.4
2010-03 92.2
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.1
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.3
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.1
2011-10 99.8
2011-11 100.0
2011-12 98.2
2012-01 96.8
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.1
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 93.9
2012-06 92.6
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.3
2012-09 90.1
2012-10 90.3
2012-11 88.7
2012-12 88.3
2013-01 91.2
2013-02 87.6
2013-03 86.7
2013-04 84.9
2013-05 84.5
2013-06 87.5
2013-07 88.7
2013-08 89.3
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 91.9
2013-12 93.9
2014-01 94.2
2014-02 93.5
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 97.4
2014-05 96.2
2014-06 94.5
2014-07 94.9
2014-08 93.5
2014-09 93.7
2014-10 93.6
2014-11 93.4
2014-12 93.8
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 95.1
2015-03 94.4
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.8
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 99.9
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.1
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.2
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.1
2016-09 104.8
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.4
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 108.0
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 107.0
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.5
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.8
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.7
2018-09 107.4
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.0
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.6
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 106.4

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
June 19 July 19 Aug. 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19
France 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7
Manufacturing 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.1
Building construction 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9
Services 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
Wholesale trade - 0,1 - 0.4 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.61
2010-02 0.53
2010-03 0.62
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.81
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.38
2016-08 0.41
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.81
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89
2019-10 0.74

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate last month, the composite business climate indicator in retail trade in September 2019 have been revised upwards by one point. This revision results mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 21 November 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 21 November 2019 at 08:45 am


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