Informations rapides
23 October 2019
2019- n° 274
In October 2019, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - October 2019

According to business managers surveyed in October 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 274
Paru le :Paru le23/10/2019
Prochaine parution le : 21/06/2024 at 08:45 - June 2024

According to business managers surveyed in October 2019, the business climate in services is stable. At 106, it stands well above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
1998-01 104.4
1998-02 105.6
1998-03 106.8
1998-04 108.0
1998-05 107.7
1998-06 107.3
1998-07 106.9
1998-08 106.0
1998-09 105.2
1998-10 104.3
1998-11 102.5
1998-12 100.6
1999-01 98.7
1999-02 99.6
1999-03 100.5
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 102.9
1999-06 104.4
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 108.7
1999-09 111.5
1999-10 114.2
1999-11 112.7
1999-12 111.2
2000-01 109.6
2000-02 109.0
2000-03 108.5
2000-04 107.9
2000-05 111.3
2000-06 114.7
2000-07 113.1
2000-08 115.4
2000-09 116.9
2000-10 116.2
2000-11 115.1
2000-12 115.7
2001-01 114.7
2001-02 113.4
2001-03 113.6
2001-04 109.0
2001-05 106.1
2001-06 105.9
2001-07 103.4
2001-08 102.6
2001-09 101.2
2001-10 95.9
2001-11 95.2
2001-12 95.6
2002-01 96.6
2002-02 98.0
2002-03 102.1
2002-04 104.5
2002-05 105.5
2002-06 102.6
2002-07 100.8
2002-08 99.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 97.9
2002-11 99.5
2002-12 100.5
2003-01 96.8
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 90.1
2003-04 87.1
2003-05 91.6
2003-06 93.2
2003-07 96.6
2003-08 98.2
2003-09 99.2
2003-10 100.1
2003-11 101.6
2003-12 104.2
2004-01 106.6
2004-02 106.6
2004-03 106.4
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.8
2004-06 105.5
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.3
2004-09 105.5
2004-10 106.9
2004-11 106.3
2004-12 109.5
2005-01 106.9
2005-02 106.6
2005-03 108.9
2005-04 108.6
2005-05 106.4
2005-06 109.0
2005-07 108.3
2005-08 107.9
2005-09 107.5
2005-10 109.1
2005-11 106.9
2005-12 107.2
2006-01 109.4
2006-02 106.7
2006-03 108.2
2006-04 108.5
2006-05 111.4
2006-06 110.0
2006-07 111.2
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.5
2006-10 111.8
2006-11 114.3
2006-12 112.5
2007-01 111.8
2007-02 113.3
2007-03 114.5
2007-04 114.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.7
2007-07 114.3
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.0
2007-11 111.1
2007-12 109.9
2008-01 111.4
2008-02 109.4
2008-03 109.5
2008-04 107.8
2008-05 105.0
2008-06 101.5
2008-07 96.7
2008-08 95.0
2008-09 92.8
2008-10 83.2
2008-11 78.8
2008-12 75.2
2009-01 72.3
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 65.2
2009-04 65.3
2009-05 69.8
2009-06 74.9
2009-07 79.1
2009-08 82.1
2009-09 85.6
2009-10 89.1
2009-11 90.6
2009-12 91.3
2010-01 92.9
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 93.4
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.8
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.7
2010-08 100.4
2010-09 101.5
2010-10 102.9
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 107.3
2011-01 107.6
2011-02 110.0
2011-03 111.4
2011-04 109.9
2011-05 108.3
2011-06 107.8
2011-07 105.5
2011-08 100.6
2011-09 98.2
2011-10 96.9
2011-11 94.5
2011-12 94.1
2012-01 92.0
2012-02 91.3
2012-03 92.8
2012-04 95.0
2012-05 91.0
2012-06 88.7
2012-07 88.2
2012-08 85.9
2012-09 85.6
2012-10 84.3
2012-11 83.6
2012-12 85.4
2013-01 86.6
2013-02 85.2
2013-03 82.1
2013-04 81.1
2013-05 82.7
2013-06 84.2
2013-07 84.7
2013-08 86.8
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 90.3
2013-11 91.2
2013-12 89.5
2014-01 91.1
2014-02 90.9
2014-03 91.8
2014-04 92.2
2014-05 91.0
2014-06 91.0
2014-07 91.4
2014-08 90.3
2014-09 89.6
2014-10 90.0
2014-11 89.9
2014-12 90.0
2015-01 89.7
2015-02 90.1
2015-03 91.0
2015-04 92.7
2015-05 94.5
2015-06 96.0
2015-07 96.8
2015-08 98.0
2015-09 96.9
2015-10 99.2
2015-11 98.9
2015-12 96.4
2016-01 99.7
2016-02 99.5
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 97.8
2016-05 100.5
2016-06 98.7
2016-07 100.0
2016-08 99.7
2016-09 100.5
2016-10 100.4
2016-11 100.5
2016-12 103.7
2017-01 101.5
2017-02 102.7
2017-03 103.3
2017-04 103.1
2017-05 102.7
2017-06 103.5
2017-07 103.9
2017-08 106.2
2017-09 107.0
2017-10 107.2
2017-11 107.9
2017-12 109.5
2018-01 108.2
2018-02 106.8
2018-03 107.1
2018-04 106.1
2018-05 104.3
2018-06 105.0
2018-07 104.5
2018-08 103.6
2018-09 104.6
2018-10 103.1
2018-11 103.7
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 103.5
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.6
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.5
2019-07 105.2
2019-08 104.8
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 105.9

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The balances of opinion on activity have weakened a little

The balances of opinion on past and expected activity have weakened but stand above their long-term average. The balances on expected demand and on the general outlook of activity on the sector, already clearly above their average, have continued to grow slightly. After two consecutive decreases in August and in September, the balances of opinion on prices have recovered and stand above their long-term average.

Concerning employment, the balance on past employment has decreased again and moved below its average whereas that on expected employment have increased and stand well above its. Otherwise, as in July, nearly four in ten business managers have reported difficulties in recruitment compared to three in ten on average on the long period.

The balance on past investment is stable whereas that on expected investment has increased. Both are above their average.

More business managers than in July have reported demand difficulties only. Nevertheless their proportion remains significantly above its average. The share of business managers facing supply difficulties only is stable and just below its average level.

In October 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.96
2010-02 -0.14
2010-03 0.44
2010-04 0.86
2010-05 0.99
2010-06 0.9
2010-07 0.77
2010-08 0.97
2010-09 0.97
2010-10 0.97
2010-11 0.96
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.91
2011-02 0.98
2011-03 1.0
2011-04 0.9
2011-05 0.51
2011-06 0.69
2011-07 0.16
2011-08 -0.84
2011-09 -0.98
2011-10 -0.87
2011-11 -0.81
2011-12 -0.69
2012-01 -0.69
2012-02 -0.86
2012-03 -0.59
2012-04 -0.53
2012-05 -0.94
2012-06 -0.99
2012-07 -0.88
2012-08 -0.92
2012-09 -0.77
2012-10 -0.87
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.59
2013-01 -0.36
2013-02 -0.92
2013-03 -0.95
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 -0.88
2013-06 -0.64
2013-07 -0.58
2013-08 -0.48
2013-09 0.32
2013-10 -0.34
2013-11 -0.03
2013-12 -0.54
2014-01 -0.36
2014-02 -0.3
2014-03 -0.24
2014-04 -0.2
2014-05 -0.89
2014-06 -0.78
2014-07 -0.69
2014-08 -0.85
2014-09 -0.7
2014-10 -0.6
2014-11 -0.95
2014-12 -0.9
2015-01 -0.99
2015-02 -0.92
2015-03 -0.78
2015-04 -0.66
2015-05 0.52
2015-06 0.6
2015-07 0.7
2015-08 0.72
2015-09 -0.47
2015-10 0.76
2015-11 0.72
2015-12 -0.47
2016-01 0.48
2016-02 0.57
2016-03 0.37
2016-04 0.2
2016-05 0.77
2016-06 -0.49
2016-07 0.14
2016-08 -0.08
2016-09 0.38
2016-10 0.54
2016-11 0.27
2016-12 0.91
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.78
2017-03 0.7
2017-04 0.67
2017-05 0.15
2017-06 0.9
2017-07 0.78
2017-08 0.75
2017-09 0.97
2017-10 0.99
2017-11 0.99
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.84
2018-02 0.41
2018-03 0.49
2018-04 0.42
2018-05 0.48
2018-06 0.85
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.25
2018-09 0.4
2018-10 -0.7
2018-11 -0.49
2018-12 -0.46
2019-01 -0.22
2019-02 -0.34
2019-03 0.75
2019-04 0.8
2019-05 0.98
2019-06 0.9
2019-07 0.83
2019-08 0.75
2019-09 0.7
2019-10 0.65

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Jul. 2019 Aug. 2019 Sep. 2019 Oct. 2019
Composite indicator 100 105 105 106 106
General outlook -7 0 1 2 3
Past activity 2 8 5 4 3
Expected activity 2 4 4 7 5
Expected demand 0 4 3 4 5
Past selling prices -4 1 0 -2 2
Expected selling prices -3 2 -2 -3 1
Past employment 3 3 6 4 1
except temporary work agencies 1 0 4 -1 1
Expected employment 3 4 5 5 7
except temporary work agencies 0 5 7 6 6
Investments
Past investments 2 5 4 3 3
Expected investments 2 3 3 3 6
Operating balance result
Past result -2 2 0
Expected result -2 -1 -1
Cash position -10 -5 -4
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand 10 8 8
difficulties of supply only 23 22 22
difficulties of demand only 31 16 19
Difficulties in recruitment 29 37 37
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate indicator is superior or equal to its long-term average in all sub-sectors. It is stable and equal to its average in real estate activities and has remained very favourable in professional, scientific and technical activities. It has decreased in road freight transport and in administrative and support services whereas it has improved in accommodation and food services and information-communication.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* Jul. 2019 Aug. 2019 Sep. 2019 Oct. 2019
Road freight transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 108 105 106 103
Past activity -5 2 -3 -3 -1
Expected activity -6 6 3 7 0
Expected demand -9 8 -2 0 -7
Past employment -5 -2 -7 -8 -9
Expected employment -7 3 3 2 1
General outlook -19 -6 -9 -6 -7
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 106 102 107 111
Past activity -7 3 11 10 13
Expected activity -7 -4 -15 -4 5
Expected demand -9 -9 -8 -5 0
Past employment -4 2 2 2 11
Expected employment -5 5 1 3 -3
General outlook -13 -4 -9 -8 -6
Information and communication (26%)
Composite indicator 100 104 105 102 103
Past activity 8 8 5 2 -2
Expected activity 9 13 16 12 6
Expected demand 10 15 15 5 5
Past employment 6 0 3 -8 -6
Expected employment 11 10 11 12 14
General outlook 0 9 10 8 11
Real estate activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 97 99 100 100
Past activity 7 8 4 6 11
Expected activity 7 5 8 8 6
Expected demand 2 3 3 6 3
Past employment 3 -1 -4 3 -4
Expected employment 3 6 10 0 5
General outlook -3 -6 -3 -3 -3
Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 108 107 111 111
Past activity -1 7 4 4 1
Expected activity -2 3 2 7 6
Expected demand -5 5 2 5 6
Past employment 1 2 7 3 4
Expected employment 1 11 12 13 11
General outlook -8 -1 0 6 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 101 102 105 104
Past activity 6 10 7 8 3
Expected activity 5 3 4 9 11
Expected demand 3 1 3 7 7
Past employment 9 6 11 11 1
Expected employment 8 -5 -1 2 10
General outlook -3 5 5 7 5
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

In road freight transport, the business climate has weakened

In road freight transport, the businness climate has lost three points. At 103, it stands however above its average. The balances on expected activity and on expected demand have sharply fallen. However, almost all balances remain above their average except that on past employment.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate continues to improve

In accommodation and food services, the climate has improved again and gained four points. At 111, it stands substantially above its average. All balances of opinion have increased except that on expected employment which has slipped back. Those on expected activity and on past employment have strongly increased. All balances are above their long-term average.

The climate has slightly recovered in information-communication

After a sharp fall the previous month, the business climate has recovered a little in information-communication. At 103, it has gained one point and hence remains above its average. Most of the balances have improved or are stable. However, the balances on past and expected activity have declined and stand below their average.

The climate remains at its average in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the business climate stands at 100, its long-term average. The decline in balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on past employment is offset by the improvement in those on past activity and on expected employment.

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate remains very favourable

At 111, the business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities is, as the previous month, far above its long-term average. The decrease in the balances on past and expected activity and on expected employment is offset by the increase in the balances on past employment and on expected demand.

The climate has slightly decreased in administrative and support services

In administrative and support services, the climate has lost one point. At 104, it stands above its average. The balances on past activity, on general outlook and on past employment have declined whereas those on expected activity and on expected employment have improved.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 November 2019 at 8:45 am

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 November 2019 at 8:45 am

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