24 septembre 2019
N° 2019-248

In September 2019, both French business climate and employment climate have slightly improvedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2019

In September 2019, the business climate has gained one point, compared to August. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has bounced back by four points in retail trade and has gained one point in services and in building construction. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry, and, compared to July, in wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 248
Paru le : Paru le 24/09/2019
Prochaine parution le : 21/11/2019 at 08:45 - November 2019
Informations rapides  No 248 - septembre 2019

The French business climate has raised slightly, above its long-term mean

In September 2019, the business climate has gained one point, compared to August. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has bounced back by four points in retail trade and has gained one point in services and in building construction. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry, and, compared to July, in wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.3
1999-02 102.3
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.5
1999-05 103.2
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.8
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.3
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.2
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 94.0
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.5
2002-03 98.5
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 103.0
2002-06 102.0
2002-07 99.1
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.3
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 96.0
2003-02 95.1
2003-03 89.7
2003-04 87.4
2003-05 92.1
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 94.5
2003-08 95.4
2003-09 95.4
2003-10 96.4
2003-11 100.5
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.8
2004-02 104.9
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.7
2004-11 105.3
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.1
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 104.0
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.2
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.8
2007-05 114.2
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.9
2007-12 111.5
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.9
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.8
2008-05 103.0
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.7
2008-08 94.3
2008-09 91.6
2008-10 82.6
2008-11 79.2
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.6
2009-02 71.2
2009-03 68.1
2009-04 69.0
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.6
2009-07 77.7
2009-08 81.6
2009-09 85.1
2009-10 87.7
2009-11 90.1
2009-12 90.7
2010-01 92.8
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.2
2010-09 103.7
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.8
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.5
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.4
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 93.0
2012-01 92.2
2012-02 92.0
2012-03 94.6
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.6
2012-07 88.4
2012-08 87.9
2012-09 86.3
2012-10 84.3
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.7
2013-02 86.7
2013-03 84.7
2013-04 83.1
2013-05 84.3
2013-06 85.4
2013-07 87.3
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 93.8
2013-10 93.5
2013-11 92.7
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 94.3
2014-05 94.0
2014-06 92.9
2014-07 92.3
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.3
2014-10 90.4
2014-11 92.2
2014-12 92.4
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 93.5
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.7
2015-06 97.6
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.4
2015-10 100.4
2015-11 100.5
2015-12 99.0
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 100.2
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.5
2016-09 100.9
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.5
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.1
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.5
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.4
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.2

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
May 19 June 19 July 19 Aug. 19 Sept. 19
Business climates
France 106 106 105 105 106
Manufacturing 104 102 101 103 102
Building construction 111 111 111 111 112
Services 106 107 105 105 106
Retail trade 104 104 105 100 104
Wholesale trade 107 - 106 - 105
Employment climate
Employment 105 106 106 105 106
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has improved very slightly, above its long-term mean

In September 2019, the employment climate has improved very slightly after having edged down in the previous month: the associate composite indicator stands at 106, above its long-term mean. The decrease in the balance of opinion on past change in workforce size in non-interim services is offset by increases in the balances in the other sectors, in particular with regard to the projected staffing in temporary employment agencies and in retail trade.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.0
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.7
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.4
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.6
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.9
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.1
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.8
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 91.9
2003-04 90.4
2003-05 89.5
2003-06 92.3
2003-07 93.4
2003-08 94.0
2003-09 94.2
2003-10 94.8
2003-11 93.9
2003-12 97.0
2004-01 98.6
2004-02 97.2
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.2
2004-06 101.0
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.3
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.3
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.3
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.2
2005-11 103.8
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.1
2006-03 104.7
2006-04 107.4
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.4
2006-11 111.1
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.1
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.4
2008-11 87.0
2008-12 81.6
2009-01 78.8
2009-02 77.2
2009-03 70.9
2009-04 71.5
2009-05 70.5
2009-06 71.8
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 81.1
2009-09 80.2
2009-10 82.4
2009-11 84.9
2009-12 87.4
2010-01 88.9
2010-02 89.4
2010-03 92.2
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.3
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.2
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.8
2011-11 100.0
2011-12 98.2
2012-01 96.8
2012-02 96.5
2012-03 98.1
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 94.0
2012-06 92.6
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.3
2012-09 90.1
2012-10 90.4
2012-11 88.8
2012-12 88.3
2013-01 91.2
2013-02 87.7
2013-03 86.7
2013-04 84.9
2013-05 84.6
2013-06 87.5
2013-07 88.7
2013-08 89.4
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 91.9
2013-12 93.9
2014-01 94.2
2014-02 93.5
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 97.4
2014-05 96.2
2014-06 94.5
2014-07 94.9
2014-08 93.5
2014-09 93.7
2014-10 93.6
2014-11 93.4
2014-12 93.9
2015-01 92.9
2015-02 95.2
2015-03 94.4
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 96.9
2015-06 98.8
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 99.9
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 101.4
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 101.8
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.2
2016-04 100.1
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.2
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.1
2016-09 104.8
2016-10 105.0
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.4
2017-03 107.5
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.0
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.8
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.7
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.3
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.7
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 107.0
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.6
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 105.7

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
May 19 June 19 July 19 Aug. 19 Sept. 19
France 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Manufacturing 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6
Building construction 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9
Services 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Wholesale trade 0.9 - 0.1 - 0.4
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.58
2010-02 0.5
2010-03 0.6
2010-04 0.82
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.8
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.38
2016-08 0.41
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.81
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate last month, the composite employment climate indicator and the business climate indicator in retail trade in August 2019 have been revised downwards by one point. Conversely, the business climate indicator in manufacturing industry has been revised upwards by one point. The bi-monthly business climate indicator in wholesale trade in July 2019 has also been revised upwards by one point. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 October 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 October 2019 at 08:45 am


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