27 August 2019

2019- n° 218

In August 2019, the business climate has sharply declined in retail trade Monthly survey of retailing - August 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has sharply declined in August 2019. The composite indicator that measures it has lost four points and stands at 101, just above its long-term average (100). This decrease is mainly concentrated in non-specialised retail trade.

In August 2019, business managers are much more pessimistic than in July concerning their ordering intentions.The corresponding balance of opinion has plummeted and has moved below its long-term average, at its lowest level since January 2015. However, business managers are more confident then last month concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has bounced back and remains well above its long-term average. The opinion of business managers on their sales, past as well as expected, has slightly faltered. The balance of opinion on expected sales remains thus below its mean.The balance of opinion concerning stocks is stable in August, just below its mean. That on expected prices remains unchanged, a little above its mean.

Many more managers than in July have reported to have reduced their staff size during the past three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has largely retreated due to retail trade and has reached its lowest level since December 2009, well below its average. Concerning expected employment, more business managers also than in the previous month have anticipated a decrease in their staff size during the next three months, here again because of retail trade. The corresponding balance has sharply decreased and has moved further away from its average.

In retail trade, the business climate has sharply deteriorated: the composite indicator has lost twelve points in August, to 87, its lowest level since November 2014, well below its long-term mean (100).

The balance on ordering intentions has strongly fallen back and stands well below its average, mainly due to non-specialised trade. Moreover, more retailers have indicated a decrease in their past and expected sales, also due to non-specialised trade. The corresponding balances have sharply decreased, below their average. Nevertheless, retailers as a whole are more optimistic than in July concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance has sharply gone up and stands above its long-term mean. The opinion on the level of stocks is unchanged: the corresponding balance, stable, stands below its mean.

Finally, slightly fewer retailers than in the previous month have planned to rise their prices: the corresponding balance has slightly edged down and has returned to its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has recovered and has gained three points in August. At 111, it has reached its highest level since December 2018, largely above its long-term average (100).

Business managers are more optimistic concerning the general business outlook of the sector. The corresponding balance has sharply increased and remains above its long-term mean. They are also more confident than in the previous month concerning their activity. Indeed, the balances on past and expected sales have grown and remain above their average. That on ordering intentions has hardly changed, above its own.

Stocks are deemed a little less high than in July: the corresponding balance has slightly decreased for the third consecutive month and stands below its mean. The balance of opinion on expected prices has bounced back a little and has moved above its own.