24 juillet 2019
N° 2019-189

In July 2019, the French business climate has slightly weakened and the employment climate has recovered a littleBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - July 2019

In July 2019, the business climate has slightly weakened. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and has returned to its level of April at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in retail trade but has lost two points in wholesale trade and one point in manufacturing industry and in services. It is stable in building construction. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 189
Paru le : Paru le 24/07/2019
Prochaine parution le : 27/08/2019 at 08:45 - August 2019
Informations rapides  No 189 - juillet 2019
Warning

In the publication of July 2019, the seasonal coefficients of the business surveys and the parameters of the synthetic indiacators have been updated. That has led to some revisions in the set of results previously published.

The French business climate has slightly weakened in July and has returned to its level of April

In July 2019, the business climate has slightly weakened. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and has returned to its level of April at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in retail trade but has lost two points in wholesale trade and one point in manufacturing industry and in services. It is stable in building construction. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.8
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.4
1999-01 102.3
1999-02 102.3
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.5
1999-05 103.2
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.7
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.8
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.3
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.2
2001-06 104.2
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 94.0
2001-11 94.1
2001-12 94.7
2002-01 95.9
2002-02 96.5
2002-03 98.5
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 103.0
2002-06 102.0
2002-07 99.1
2002-08 98.4
2002-09 97.3
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.1
2003-03 89.7
2003-04 87.4
2003-05 92.1
2003-06 92.2
2003-07 94.5
2003-08 95.4
2003-09 95.4
2003-10 96.4
2003-11 100.5
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.8
2004-02 104.9
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.7
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.7
2004-11 105.3
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.1
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.9
2005-04 105.1
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 104.0
2005-07 104.6
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.2
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.2
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.3
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 111.0
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.1
2007-04 113.8
2007-05 114.2
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.6
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.9
2007-12 111.5
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.9
2008-03 108.6
2008-04 105.8
2008-05 103.0
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.8
2008-08 94.3
2008-09 91.6
2008-10 82.7
2008-11 79.3
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.7
2009-02 71.2
2009-03 68.2
2009-04 69.1
2009-05 72.8
2009-06 75.6
2009-07 77.8
2009-08 81.6
2009-09 85.2
2009-10 87.8
2009-11 90.1
2009-12 90.7
2010-01 92.8
2010-02 93.3
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 97.0
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 99.9
2010-08 102.2
2010-09 103.7
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 106.8
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.5
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.1
2011-09 97.8
2011-10 96.4
2011-11 94.5
2011-12 93.1
2012-01 92.2
2012-02 92.1
2012-03 94.6
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.7
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 87.9
2012-09 86.4
2012-10 84.3
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.9
2013-01 86.8
2013-02 86.7
2013-03 84.8
2013-04 83.2
2013-05 84.4
2013-06 85.5
2013-07 87.4
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 93.8
2013-10 93.5
2013-11 92.7
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 94.4
2014-05 94.0
2014-06 92.9
2014-07 92.3
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.3
2014-10 90.4
2014-11 92.2
2014-12 92.4
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 95.8
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 97.7
2015-07 98.1
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.4
2015-10 100.4
2015-11 100.6
2015-12 99.0
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 100.0
2016-03 100.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 100.2
2016-07 100.9
2016-08 100.5
2016-09 100.9
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.5
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.0
2017-03 104.0
2017-04 104.2
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.1
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.6
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.1
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.5
2018-12 101.6
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.2
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.4
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.3
2019-07 105.0

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19 June 19 July 19
Business climates
France 105 105 106 106 105
Manufacturing 104 102 104 102 101
Building construction 111 111 111 111 111
Services 105 106 106 107 106
Retail trade 103 106 104 104 105
Wholesale trade 105 - 107 - 105
Employment climate
Employment 107 107 105 106 107
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is slightly more favourable, at a relatively high level

In July 2019, the employment climate has improved slightly again: the associated composite indicator has gained one point and stands at 107, above its long-term average. This improvement is due to the increase in the balance of opinion on expected workforce size in services excluding temporary work agencies, and to a lesser extent, in that concerning past employment in temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.0
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.7
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.4
1998-08 108.6
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.2
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.6
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.5
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.9
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.5
2002-04 107.1
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.3
2002-09 98.2
2002-10 94.3
2002-11 97.9
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 95.8
2003-03 91.9
2003-04 90.5
2003-05 89.6
2003-06 92.4
2003-07 93.4
2003-08 94.1
2003-09 94.2
2003-10 94.9
2003-11 94.0
2003-12 97.0
2004-01 98.6
2004-02 97.3
2004-03 100.9
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 104.2
2004-06 101.0
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.9
2004-09 101.5
2004-10 103.1
2004-11 103.3
2004-12 102.1
2005-01 102.3
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 105.0
2005-04 102.3
2005-05 103.0
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.2
2005-11 103.8
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.1
2006-03 104.7
2006-04 107.4
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.4
2006-11 111.1
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.1
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.0
2008-12 81.7
2009-01 78.9
2009-02 77.3
2009-03 71.0
2009-04 71.6
2009-05 70.6
2009-06 71.9
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 81.1
2009-09 80.3
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.9
2009-12 87.5
2010-01 89.0
2010-02 89.5
2010-03 92.2
2010-04 94.7
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.4
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.9
2011-11 100.1
2011-12 98.2
2012-01 96.8
2012-02 96.5
2012-03 98.1
2012-04 96.9
2012-05 94.0
2012-06 92.7
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.3
2012-09 90.2
2012-10 90.4
2012-11 88.8
2012-12 88.4
2013-01 91.2
2013-02 87.7
2013-03 86.8
2013-04 84.9
2013-05 84.6
2013-06 87.5
2013-07 88.7
2013-08 89.4
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 91.9
2013-12 94.0
2014-01 94.3
2014-02 93.6
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 97.4
2014-05 96.2
2014-06 94.5
2014-07 94.9
2014-08 93.5
2014-09 93.7
2014-10 93.7
2014-11 93.5
2014-12 93.9
2015-01 92.9
2015-02 95.2
2015-03 94.4
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 96.9
2015-06 98.8
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 99.9
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 101.4
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 101.8
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.1
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.2
2016-07 104.3
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 104.9
2016-10 105.0
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.4
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 105.8
2017-09 107.1
2017-10 108.8
2017-11 108.5
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 108.5
2018-08 107.8
2018-09 107.5
2018-10 107.3
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.7
2019-05 104.5
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 107.5

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Mar. 19 Avr. 19 May 19 June 19 July 19
France 0.9 0.4 1,0 0.9 0.8
Manufacturing 0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Building construction 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1
Services 0.8 0.8 1,0 0.9 0.8
Wholesale trade 0.9 - 0.9 - 0.1
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.63
2010-02 0.52
2010-03 0.61
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.8
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.69
2012-08 -0.54
2012-09 -0.44
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.39
2016-08 0.42
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.82
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.78

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 27 August 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 27 August 2019 at 08:45 am


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