Insee conjoncture
25 juin 2019
N° 2019-165

In June 2019, the French business climate remains stable and the employment climate has recoveredBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - June 2019

In June 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106for the third consecutive month, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in services, but has lost two points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction and wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 165
Paru le : 25/06/2019
Prochaine parution le : 24/07/2019 at 08:45 - July 2019

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term mean

In June 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106for the third consecutive month, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in services, but has lost two points in manufacturing industry. It is stable in building construction and wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.5
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.7
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.7
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.7
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.2
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.0
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.8
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.6
2002-02 96.2
2002-03 98.2
2002-04 101.2
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 89.9
2003-04 87.4
2003-05 91.7
2003-06 91.7
2003-07 94.2
2003-08 95.1
2003-09 95.1
2003-10 96.1
2003-11 100.0
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.6
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 104.9
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 105.9
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.7
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.8
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.8
2005-01 106.3
2005-02 106.4
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.0
2005-06 104.2
2005-07 104.9
2005-08 104.7
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.8
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.1
2008-05 103.3
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.0
2008-08 94.7
2008-09 92.0
2008-10 83.2
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 75.4
2009-01 73.6
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 67.9
2009-04 68.8
2009-05 72.4
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.4
2009-08 81.2
2009-09 84.8
2009-10 87.5
2009-11 89.7
2009-12 90.3
2010-01 92.5
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 97.0
2010-05 98.3
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.4
2010-09 103.9
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.6
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.3
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 98.1
2011-10 96.6
2011-11 94.6
2011-12 93.1
2012-01 92.4
2012-02 92.2
2012-03 94.7
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.7
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 88.0
2012-09 86.6
2012-10 84.4
2012-11 86.1
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.8
2013-02 86.8
2013-03 85.1
2013-04 83.4
2013-05 84.7
2013-06 85.7
2013-07 87.4
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 94.0
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 92.8
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.6
2014-04 94.4
2014-05 94.1
2014-06 93.0
2014-07 92.4
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.4
2014-10 90.5
2014-11 92.5
2014-12 92.5
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.9
2015-04 95.9
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.8
2015-07 98.2
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.6
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.8
2015-12 99.2
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.1
2016-03 100.4
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.1
2016-06 100.3
2016-07 101.1
2016-08 100.5
2016-09 101.1
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.7
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.0
2017-03 104.2
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.2
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.7
2018-11 104.7
2018-12 101.8
2019-01 102.2
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.9
2019-04 105.7
2019-05 105.9
2019-06 105.9

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Feb 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19 Jun. 19
Business climates
France 103 105 106 106 106
Manufacturing 103 103 101 104 102
Building construction 111 111 111 111 111
Services 103 105 106 106 107
Retail trade 102 102 106 104 104
Wholesale trade - 106 - 106 -
Employment climate
Employment 107 107 107 105 107
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is more favourable, at a relatively high level

In June 2019, the employment climate has improved after having slightly retreated in the previous month: the associated composite indicator has gainedtwo points and stands at 107, returning to its level of April, above its long-term average. This improvement is due to the increase in the balance of opinion on expected workforce size in services excluding temporary work agencies, and to a lesser extent, in those concerning past and expected employment in temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.5
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.2
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 120.9
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.6
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.3
2001-07 107.7
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.3
2001-11 102.3
2001-12 105.3
2002-01 103.5
2002-02 101.4
2002-03 103.2
2002-04 106.9
2002-05 104.6
2002-06 103.0
2002-07 104.0
2002-08 101.1
2002-09 97.8
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.5
2002-12 96.5
2003-01 97.1
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 92.2
2003-04 90.6
2003-05 89.8
2003-06 91.9
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 93.7
2003-09 93.7
2003-10 94.6
2003-11 93.3
2003-12 96.3
2004-01 98.8
2004-02 97.0
2004-03 100.3
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 103.6
2004-06 100.7
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.6
2004-10 102.8
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 101.8
2005-01 101.6
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 105.0
2005-04 101.8
2005-05 102.5
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 103.1
2005-08 103.7
2005-09 104.1
2005-10 104.4
2005-11 103.9
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.3
2006-04 107.2
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.4
2006-07 110.3
2006-08 109.3
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.5
2006-12 112.2
2007-01 110.2
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.7
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 113.9
2007-06 113.2
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 112.8
2007-09 113.8
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.6
2007-12 115.8
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.5
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.8
2008-06 104.9
2008-07 105.3
2008-08 100.7
2008-09 99.4
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.5
2008-12 81.8
2009-01 79.2
2009-02 78.1
2009-03 71.3
2009-04 71.8
2009-05 70.6
2009-06 71.8
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 80.8
2009-09 80.3
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.2
2010-03 91.9
2010-04 94.5
2010-05 96.4
2010-06 97.9
2010-07 98.3
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.1
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.6
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.6
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.0
2011-06 111.5
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.3
2011-10 100.3
2011-11 100.2
2011-12 98.8
2012-01 97.0
2012-02 97.0
2012-03 98.6
2012-04 96.7
2012-05 94.6
2012-06 92.7
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.4
2012-09 90.2
2012-10 90.1
2012-11 89.1
2012-12 88.7
2013-01 91.8
2013-02 87.9
2013-03 86.9
2013-04 84.6
2013-05 85.4
2013-06 87.7
2013-07 89.0
2013-08 88.8
2013-09 91.1
2013-10 93.1
2013-11 92.3
2013-12 94.3
2014-01 94.7
2014-02 94.0
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 97.8
2014-05 96.3
2014-06 94.6
2014-07 95.1
2014-08 93.7
2014-09 94.2
2014-10 94.0
2014-11 94.1
2014-12 94.3
2015-01 93.1
2015-02 95.4
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 98.9
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 100.2
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.8
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.6
2016-03 99.9
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.5
2016-06 101.5
2016-07 104.1
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.0
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.9
2017-01 105.5
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.9
2017-04 106.5
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.2
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.1
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.7
2017-12 108.7
2018-01 109.2
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 109.8
2018-04 108.2
2018-05 108.4
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 107.7
2018-08 106.9
2018-09 107.5
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 104.9
2018-12 104.0
2019-01 104.4
2019-02 107.1
2019-03 107.5
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.7
2019-06 106.8

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May. 19 Jun. 19
France 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.3
Manufacturing 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.8 0.5
Building construction 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6
Services -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Wholesale trade - 0.9 - 0.9 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.95
2010-09 0.94
2010-10 0.93
2010-11 0.83
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.13
2015-04 0.14
2015-05 0.29
2015-06 0.19
2015-07 0.25
2015-08 0.21
2015-09 0.14
2015-10 0.19
2015-11 0.15
2015-12 0.14
2016-01 0.75
2016-02 0.74
2016-03 0.59
2016-04 0.55
2016-05 0.81
2016-06 -0.33
2016-07 0.26
2016-08 0.12
2016-09 0.69
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.43
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.45
2018-11 0.51
2018-12 0.42
2019-01 0.68
2019-02 0.53
2019-03 0.87
2019-04 0.19
2019-05 0.45
2019-06 0.3

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 July 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 July 2019 at 08:45 am


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