Insee conjoncture
23 mai 2019
N° 2019-134

InMay 2019, the French business climate has stabilised and the employment climate has deterioratedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - May 2019

In May 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained three points in manufacturing industry. It has lost two points in retail trade and one point in services. It is stable in building construction and wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 134
Paru le : 23/05/2019
Prochaine parution le : 25/06/2019 at 08:45 - June 2019

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term mean

In May 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained three points in manufacturing industry. It has lost two points in retail trade and one point in services. It is stable in building construction and wholesale trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.5
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.7
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.7
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.7
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.2
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.0
2001-08 100.6
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.8
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.6
2002-02 96.2
2002-03 98.2
2002-04 101.2
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 89.9
2003-04 87.5
2003-05 91.8
2003-06 91.7
2003-07 94.2
2003-08 95.1
2003-09 95.1
2003-10 96.1
2003-11 100.0
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.6
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.0
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.8
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.8
2005-01 106.4
2005-02 106.5
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.0
2005-06 104.3
2005-07 104.9
2005-08 104.7
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.8
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.1
2008-05 103.4
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.0
2008-08 94.7
2008-09 92.0
2008-10 83.2
2008-11 79.5
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.7
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 67.9
2009-04 68.8
2009-05 72.4
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.4
2009-08 81.3
2009-09 84.8
2009-10 87.5
2009-11 89.7
2009-12 90.4
2010-01 92.5
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 97.0
2010-05 98.3
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.4
2010-09 103.9
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.7
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.3
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 98.1
2011-10 96.6
2011-11 94.6
2011-12 93.2
2012-01 92.4
2012-02 92.2
2012-03 94.8
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.7
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 88.0
2012-09 86.6
2012-10 84.4
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.8
2013-02 86.8
2013-03 85.1
2013-04 83.5
2013-05 84.7
2013-06 85.8
2013-07 87.4
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 94.0
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.8
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.6
2014-04 94.5
2014-05 94.1
2014-06 93.0
2014-07 92.4
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.4
2014-10 90.5
2014-11 92.5
2014-12 92.6
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.9
2015-04 95.9
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.8
2015-07 98.2
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.7
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.8
2015-12 99.3
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 100.4
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.1
2016-06 100.3
2016-07 101.1
2016-08 100.6
2016-09 101.1
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.7
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.0
2017-03 104.2
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.2
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.7
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 102.2
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.9
2019-04 105.7
2019-05 106.0

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Jan. 19 Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19
Business climates
France 102 103 105 106 106
Manufacturing 103 103 103 101 104
Building construction 109 111 112 111 111
Services 104 103 105 107 106
Retail trade 100 102 103 106 104
Wholesale trade 99 - 106 - 106
Employment climate
Employment 104 107 107 107 105
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is less favourable but remains at a relatively high level

In May 2019, the employment climate has deteriorated after being stable for the two previous months: the associated composite indicator has lost two points and stands at 105, above its long-term average. This deterioration is due to the decrease in most of the balances of opinion on past and expected workforce size in the main sectors of activity.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.8
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.5
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.2
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 120.9
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.6
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.3
2001-07 107.7
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.3
2001-11 102.3
2001-12 105.3
2002-01 103.5
2002-02 101.4
2002-03 103.3
2002-04 106.9
2002-05 104.6
2002-06 103.0
2002-07 104.0
2002-08 101.1
2002-09 97.8
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.6
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.2
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 92.2
2003-04 90.6
2003-05 89.9
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 93.7
2003-09 93.7
2003-10 94.6
2003-11 93.3
2003-12 96.3
2004-01 98.8
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.3
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 103.7
2004-06 100.7
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.6
2004-10 102.8
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 101.9
2005-01 101.7
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 105.0
2005-04 101.9
2005-05 102.5
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 103.1
2005-08 103.7
2005-09 104.1
2005-10 104.5
2005-11 103.9
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.3
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.7
2006-06 110.4
2006-07 110.3
2006-08 109.4
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.5
2006-12 112.2
2007-01 110.2
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.7
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 113.9
2007-06 113.3
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 112.8
2007-09 113.8
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.6
2007-12 115.8
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.5
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.8
2008-06 105.0
2008-07 105.3
2008-08 100.7
2008-09 99.5
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.5
2008-12 81.8
2009-01 79.3
2009-02 78.1
2009-03 71.3
2009-04 71.9
2009-05 70.6
2009-06 71.9
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 80.9
2009-09 80.3
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.2
2010-03 92.0
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.4
2010-06 97.9
2010-07 98.3
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.6
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.6
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.0
2011-06 111.5
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.1
2011-09 103.3
2011-10 100.3
2011-11 100.2
2011-12 98.8
2012-01 97.1
2012-02 97.0
2012-03 98.7
2012-04 96.7
2012-05 94.6
2012-06 92.7
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.4
2012-09 90.3
2012-10 90.1
2012-11 89.1
2012-12 88.8
2013-01 91.8
2013-02 87.9
2013-03 86.9
2013-04 84.7
2013-05 85.4
2013-06 87.7
2013-07 89.0
2013-08 88.9
2013-09 91.2
2013-10 93.1
2013-11 92.3
2013-12 94.4
2014-01 94.7
2014-02 94.0
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 97.8
2014-05 96.3
2014-06 94.7
2014-07 95.1
2014-08 93.7
2014-09 94.3
2014-10 94.0
2014-11 94.1
2014-12 94.3
2015-01 93.2
2015-02 95.4
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 99.0
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.2
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.8
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.6
2016-03 99.9
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.5
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.0
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.9
2017-01 105.5
2017-02 104.2
2017-03 107.9
2017-04 106.5
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 108.2
2017-07 107.6
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 108.7
2018-01 109.2
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 109.8
2018-04 108.3
2018-05 108.3
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 107.8
2018-08 106.9
2018-09 107.6
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 104.9
2018-12 104.0
2019-01 104.4
2019-02 107.1
2019-03 107.5
2019-04 106.9
2019-05 104.5

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole has moved in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Jan. 19 Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19 May 19
France 0,7 0,5 0,9 0,2 0,9
Manufacturing 0,3 0,4 0,4 -0,2 0,8
Building construction 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,8 0,8
Services -0,3 -0,7 -0,4 -0,2 0,1
Wholesale trade -0,4 - 0,9 - 0,9
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.91
2010-09 0.91
2010-10 0.91
2010-11 0.81
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.13
2015-04 0.14
2015-05 0.29
2015-06 0.19
2015-07 0.25
2015-08 0.21
2015-09 0.14
2015-10 0.19
2015-11 0.15
2015-12 0.14
2016-01 0.75
2016-02 0.74
2016-03 0.59
2016-04 0.55
2016-05 0.81
2016-06 -0.33
2016-07 0.26
2016-08 0.12
2016-09 0.69
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.43
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.45
2018-11 0.51
2018-12 0.42
2019-01 0.68
2019-02 0.53
2019-03 0.87
2019-04 0.19
2019-05 0.88

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate last month, the French business climate indicator for the whole economy in April 2019 has been revised upwards by one point ; the employment climate has been revised upwards by three points. By sector, the business climate indicator in April 2019 has been raised by one point in retail trade and by two points in services. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 25 June 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 25 June 2019 at 08:45 am


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