23 May 2019

2019- n° 133

In May 2019, the business climate has faltered in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - May 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has weakened in May 2019, after having sharply improved in the previous month. The composite indicator that measures it has lost two points and stands at 104, above its long-term average (100).

The business climate indicator of April 2019 has been revised upward by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.

In May 2019, far fewer managers than in April have indicated a rise in their expected sales and in their ordering intentions. The corresponding balances of opinion have slipped back but remain above their long-term mean.The balance of opinion on past sales has risen again but is still below its long-term mean. Business managers are as optimistic as in April concerning the general business outlook of the sector: after a continuous recovery since January, the corresponding balance is stable in May, at its highest level since November 2018. Since the beginning of the year, retailers had reported more and more frequently stocks below normal; in May, the corresponding balance has recovered after four consecutive months of decrease and has returned to its mean. The balance of opinion concerning expected prices has retreated but remains slightly above its mean. That on past prices is stable slightly above its. The cash position is estimated as favourable as in March: the corresponding balance is stable, just below its mean.

As a whole, more managers than in April have reported a decrease in their staff size during the last three months –but with discrepancies beyond the sectors. In retail trade, the corresponding balance has gone further from its mean and has reached its lowest level since February 2012, whereas it remains well above its own in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles. Concerning the expected change in employment, the corresponding balance has edged down but remains above its mean: by subsectors, it has slightly decreased in retail trade where it has moved below its mean, whereas it is stable down in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, well above its.

In retail trade, the business climate has deteriorated: the composite indicator , which had gained five points in April and hit its long-term mean (100), has lost three points in May, to 97.

As a whole, many more retailers than in April have reported a decrease in their future sales and in their ordering intentions, mainly due to the non-specialised retailers. The corresponding balancesof opinion have fallen after having increased for threeconsecutive months and have moved just below their long-term mean.

The balance of opinion on past sales has risen again, but also with divided opinions according to the kind of trade. In the non-specialised retail trade, it has sharply bounced back after having plummeted to a very low level in March-April, while remaining below its mean; for the specialised retailers conversely, this balance has sharply fallen back after a short improvement in April and has moved back below its average.

Retailers as a whole are as optimistic as in April concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance is stable above its long-term mean. Fewer retailers than in April have reported stocks below normal: the corresponding balance has risen after having decreased for four months in a row and stands just below its mean. Fewer retailers than in the previous month have planned to rise their prices: the corresponding balance has decreased but is still slightly above its mean. That on past prices has advanced a little and remains above its mean. The cash position is deemed as favourable as in March : the corresponding balance is stable, just below its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator is stable in May. At 110, it remains largely above its long-term average (100).

Business managers of this sector are more optimistic than in the previous month concerning the expected activity. The balance on the future sales has bounced back; that on ordering intentions have increased again. Both remain above their long-term mean, that for ordering intentions standing at its highest level since December 2018. The balance on general business outlook remains also firmly above its mean. Concerning the past few months, the balance on past sales has decreased after having bounced back last month, but is still slightly above its mean.

Stocks are deemed higher than in April: the corresponding balance has bounced back after a sharp decrease last month and has moved above its mean. The balances of opinion on past and future prices have decreased– after a rise of three consecutive months for the one on expected prices –, while remaining above their mean. The cash position is deemed as favourable as in March: the corresponding balance is stable, above its mean.