17 May 2019

2019- n° 128

In 2018, GDP grew by 1.7% in real terms Annual national accounts - Revision of the main aggregates - year 2018

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at +1.7% in volume* terms in 2018 (+1.7% in working−day adjusted data). Households’ final consumption expenditure slowed down sharply (+0.9% after +1.4% in 2017). Investment decelerated (+2.8% after +4.7%). Final domestic demand excluding change in inventories contributed for +1.3 points to GDP growth, after +2.1 points in 2017. The contribution of foreign trade balance to GDP picked up (+0.7 points after −0.1 points). Conversely, changes in inventories’ contribution was negative in 2018 (-0.3 points after +0.2 points).

The growth of GDP in nominal terms is confirmed at + 2.5%. The unrevised growth rate in nominal terms let public finance ratios unchanged for 2018: general government deficit 2018 reached 2.5% of GDP in 2018. General government debt reached 98.4% of GDP at the end of 2018.

The purchasing power of households' gross disposable income (GDI) is growing at a slower pace than in 2017 (+1.2% after +1.4%). More dynamic wages and property income are indeed offset by inflation increase (+ 1.5% vs. + 0.7% in 2017). When measured per consumption unit to be brought back to an individual level, the purchasing power of GDI is also growing at a slower pace (+0.7% after +0.8%). Profit share for non-financial corporations drops sharply (-0.5 points), due to slower productivity gains and higher oil prices.

* Volumes are chain−linked previous−year−prices volumes.

GDP growth for 2017is revised at +2.3%. In detail, the internal demand excluding inventory changes is more dynamic than initialy estimated (2.1 point instead of 1.8 point). This upward revision results from consumption (from +1.0 % to +1.4 %) and investment (from +4.5 % to +4.7 %) The foreign trade balance is more deteriorated than initially estimated: its contribution to growth revised from +0.1 points to −0.1 points. This is mainly due to the revision of growth in volume terms for exports from +4.5% to +3.9%, with the integration of the first estimates of Complementary Survey On International Trade in Services consistently with the Balance of payments. Meanwhile, changes in inventory contribution to the GDP was revised upwards with +0.3 points instead of +0.2 points. The growth of GDP in nominal terms is revised by -0.1 points to +2.7 %. Taking into account the insurance companies and financial services data modify the price and volume of consumption.

For the year 2016, GDP growth in volume terms is revised of -0.1 point at +1.1% (not working−day adjusted), mainly due to the downward revision of consumption (+1.8 % instead of +2.1 %). However, GDP growth in nominal termsis revised upward (from +1.4 % to +1.6 %).

Households' purchasing power per consumption unit (cu) was revised down by 0.2 points in 2016, mainly due to a revision of the consumption deflator. In 2017, it was revised upwards by 0.1 points due to lower cu growth.

In 2016, the profit share of NFCs was revised down by 0.2 points due to an upward revision of wages paid. In addition, the sharp downward revision of the net property income paid by companies explains the strong upward revision (+3.4 points) in the self−financing ratio of NFCs. In 2017, investment rate of NFCs is revised upwards by 0.2 point.