30 April 2019
2019- n° 110French GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1 2019 Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2019
In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after +0.0%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated slightly (GFCF: +0.3% after +0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.
Imports slowed down in Q1 (+0.9% after +1,2%) and exports halted (+0,1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points, after +0.3 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after −0.1 points).
The publication of the quarterly national accounts is simplified as ofthis quarter; the Detailed figures will now be known sooner.
As usual, the First estimate of the GDP and its components (main aggregates) is published 30 days after the end of the quarter.
The publication of the Detailed figures, comprising the sectoral accounts (households’ purchasing power, corporations’ profit ratio, quarterly public deficit…), will be brought forward from 85 to 60 days after the end of the quarter, meaning late May for the first quarter. The data received after 60 days will be integrated in the following quarter’s First estimate.
This new calendar follows tests conducted since 2015, which showed that the estimate of the sectoral accounts from the data known at 60 days is robust.
- Total production grew at the same pace as in the two previous quarters
- Household consumption picked up
- Corporate investment kept increasing, while household investment kept decreasing
- Foreign trade balance weighed GDP growth down
- Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth
- Revisions
- To go further
In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%.
Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after +0.0%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated slightly (GFCF: +0.3% after +0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.
Imports slowed down in Q1 (+0.9% after +1,2%) and exports halted (+0,1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points, after +0.3 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after −0.1 points).
tableauGraph 1 – GDP and its main components
| Consumption | GFCF | Inventory changes | Net foreign trade | GDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-Q1 | 0.72 | 0.24 | -0.35 | 0.07 | 0.7 |
| 2016-Q2 | 0.27 | -0.02 | -0.78 | 0.29 | -0.2 |
| 2016-Q3 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.59 | -0.52 | 0.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | 0.49 | 0.19 | -0.32 | 0.23 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.8 | -0.57 | 0.8 |
| 2017-Q2 | 0.27 | 0.18 | -0.72 | 0.94 | 0.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.23 | -0.27 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q4 | 0.18 | 0.23 | -0.23 | 0.53 | 0.7 |
| 2018-Q1 | 0.17 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q2 | -0.03 | 0.19 | 0.15 | -0.14 | 0.2 |
| 2018-Q3 | 0.26 | 0.22 | -0.46 | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 0.11 | 0.08 | -0.14 | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| 2019-Q1 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.26 | -0.26 | 0.3 |
graphiqueGraph 1 – GDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE.
tableauGDP and its main components
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q3 | 2019 Q1 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Imports | 0.7 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Household consumption expenditure | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| GFCF | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Households | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 1.8 | -0.4 |
| General government | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Exports | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Inventory changes | 0.1 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Net foreign trade | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production grew at the same pace as in the two previous quarters
Production of goods and services grew at almost the same pace as in the two previous quarters (+0.4% after +0.5% in Q3 and Q4 2018). It accelerated markedly in goods (+0.5% after +0.1%), while it slowed down slightly in services (+0.4% after +0.6%).
Output in manufactured goods accelerated this quarter (+0.6% after +0.1%). Production of refineries (+3.0% after −5.0%) bounced back in the aftermath of social movements in November 2018. Production in construction accelerated (+0.4% after +0.2%).
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2018 | 2019 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goods | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Manufactured industry | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Construction | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Market services | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Non-market services | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Household consumption | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Food products | -1.5 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.5 |
| Energy | -3.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Engineered goods | 1.0 | 0.7 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Services | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| GFCF | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| Manufactured goods | 1.3 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Construction | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Market services | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 |
- Source: Insee
Household consumption picked up
Household consumption rose in Q1 2019 (+0.4% after +0.0%): consumption of goods recovered (+0.2% after −0.6%) while consumption of services remained dynamic (+0.5% after +0.6%), driven by spending in accomodation and food services.
Regarding goods, the rebound of expenditures on engineered goods (+0,8 % after −1,2%) is linked to the rise in car purchases. Expenditures on energy rose (+0,9 % after −0,3%) due to the increase of spendings on fuel. Conversely, expenditures on food decreased faster than in the previous quarter (−1,0 % after −0,2%).
Corporate investment kept increasing, while household investment kept decreasing
In Q1 2019, total GFCF slowed down slightly (+0.3% after +0.4%). Corporate investment accelerated slightly (+0.5% after +0.4%): the rise in car purchases by businesses was almost compensated by the decline in information, communication and business services. Conversely, household investment kept declining, partly due to new housing, for the third quarter (−0.3% in Q1 2019 after −0.2% and −0,1 %).
Foreign trade balance weighed GDP growth down
Imports slowed down slightly in Q1 2019 (+0.9% after +1.2%), notably in relation with the decrease in equipment goods. Exports halted after a dynamic Q4 2018 (+0.1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after +0.3 points in Q4.
Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth
In Q1 2019, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.3 points (after −0.1 points).
tableauSectoral accounts
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit ration of NFCs* (level) | 31.6 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 32.0 | 31.8 | |
| Purchasing power of the HDI** | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
- * NFC: Non-financial corporations
- **HDI: Households’ disposable income
- Source : Insee
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| HDI (purchasing power) | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.4 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 14.2 | 14.4 | |
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 31.6 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 32.0 | 31.8 | |
| Investment ratio | 23.9 | 24.2 | 24.1 | 23.5 | 23.9 | |
| Savings ratio | 22.5 | 23.1 | 22.3 | 22.7 | 22.6 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 94.1 | 95.3 | 92.5 | 96.6 | 94.4 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2018 Q4 | 2019 Q1 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | ||||||
| Total expenditure | 328.8 | 329.6 | 330.9 | 1294.2 | 1318.6 | |
| Total receipts | 313.9 | 313.3 | 315.9 | 1230.4 | 1258.9 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -14.9 | -16.3 | -15.0 | -63.9 | -59.7 | |
| In % of GDP | ||||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -2.8 | -2.5 | |
- Source: Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q4 2018 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
To go further
Next publication : May 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.
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