Insee conjoncture
30 avril 2019
N° 2019-110

French GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1 2019Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2019

In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after +0.0%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated slightly (GFCF: +0.3% after +0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports slowed down in Q1 (+0.9% after +1,2%) and exports halted (+0,1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points, after +0.3 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after −0.1 points).

Informations rapides
No 110
Paru le : 30/04/2019
Prochaine parution le : 30/07/2019 at 07:30 - second quarter 2019
Please note

The publication of the quarterly national accounts is simplified as ofthis quarter; the Detailed figures will now be known sooner.

As usual, the First estimate of the GDP and its components (main aggregates) is published 30 days after the end of the quarter.

The publication of the Detailed figures, comprising the sectoral accounts (households’ purchasing power, corporations’ profit ratio, quarterly public deficit…), will be brought forward from 85 to 60 days after the end of the quarter, meaning late May for the first quarter. The data received after 60 days will be integrated in the following quarter’s First estimate.

This new calendar follows tests conducted since 2015, which showed that the estimate of the sectoral accounts from the data known at 60 days is robust.

In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in Q3: +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after +0.0%), while total gross fixed capital formation decelerated slightly (GFCF: +0.3% after +0.4%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.3 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports slowed down in Q1 (+0.9% after +1,2%) and exports halted (+0,1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points, after +0.3 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.3 points after −0.1 points).

Graph 1GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components ()
Consumption GFCF Inventory changes Net foreign trade GDP
2016-Q1 0.72 0.24 -0.35 0.07 0.7
2016-Q2 0.27 -0.02 -0.78 0.29 -0.2
2016-Q3 0.04 0.08 0.59 -0.52 0.2
2016-Q4 0.49 0.19 -0.32 0.23 0.6
2017-Q1 0.05 0.51 0.8 -0.57 0.8
2017-Q2 0.27 0.18 -0.72 0.94 0.7
2017-Q3 0.38 0.28 0.23 -0.27 0.6
2017-Q4 0.18 0.23 -0.23 0.53 0.7
2018-Q1 0.17 0.02 -0.04 0.04 0.2
2018-Q2 -0.03 0.19 0.15 -0.14 0.2
2018-Q3 0.26 0.22 -0.46 0.28 0.3
2018-Q4 0.11 0.08 -0.14 0.29 0.3
2019-Q1 0.23 0.07 0.26 -0.26 0.3

Graph 1GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE.

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2018 2019 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6 0.8
Imports 0.7 -0.2 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.8
Household consumption expenditure -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6
GFCF 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 2.9 1.2
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.5 3.9 2.0
Households 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.8 -0.4
General government 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.3
Exports 0.3 0.7 2.2 0.1 3.3 2.1
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.7
Inventory changes 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.0
Net foreign trade -0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.1
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Total production grew at the same pace as in the two previous quarters

Production of goods and services grew at almost the same pace as in the two previous quarters (+0.4% after +0.5% in Q3 and Q4 2018). It accelerated markedly in goods (+0.5% after +0.1%), while it slowed down slightly in services (+0.4% after +0.6%).

Output in manufactured goods accelerated this quarter (+0.6% after +0.1%). Production of refineries (+3.0% after −5.0%) bounced back in the aftermath of social movements in November 2018. Production in construction accelerated (+0.4% after +0.2%).

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2018 2019 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 2.0 1.1
Goods -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8
Manufactured industry -0.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0
Construction 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.8
Market services 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 2.9 1.5
Non-market services 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.7
Household consumption -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5
Food products -1.5 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5
Energy -3.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.8 -0.2
Engineered goods 1.0 0.7 -1.2 0.8 1.0 0.5
Services 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.5 1.2
GFCF 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 2.9 1.2
Manufactured goods 1.3 1.9 -1.4 1.4 2.3 1.6
Construction 0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.4
Market services 0.8 1.7 1.5 -0.2 5.3 2.0
  • Source: Insee

Household consumption picked up

Household consumption rose in Q1 2019 (+0.4% after +0.0%): consumption of goods recovered (+0.2% after −0.6%) while consumption of services remained dynamic (+0.5% after +0.6%), driven by spending in accomodation and food services.

Regarding goods, the rebound of expenditures on engineered goods (+0,8 % after −1,2%) is linked to the rise in car purchases. Expenditures on energy rose (+0,9 % after −0,3%) due to the increase of spendings on fuel. Conversely, expenditures on food decreased faster than in the previous quarter (−1,0 % after −0,2%).

Corporate investment kept increasing, while household investment kept decreasing

In Q1 2019, total GFCF slowed down slightly (+0.3% after +0.4%). Corporate investment accelerated slightly (+0.5% after +0.4%): the rise in car purchases by businesses was almost compensated by the decline in information, communication and business services. Conversely, household investment kept declining, partly due to new housing, for the third quarter (−0.3% in Q1 2019 after −0.2% and −0,1 %).

Foreign trade balance weighed GDP growth down

Imports slowed down slightly in Q1 2019 (+0.9% after +1.2%), notably in relation with the decrease in equipment goods. Exports halted after a dynamic Q4 2018 (+0.1% after +2.2%). All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after +0.3 points in Q4.

Changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth

In Q1 2019, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.3 points (after −0.1 points).

Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
Profit ration of NFCs* (level) 31.6 31.7 31.8 32.0 31.8
Purchasing power of the HDI** 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.0
  • * NFC: Non-financial corporations
  • **HDI: Households’ disposable income
  • Source : Insee

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
HDI 1.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 2.7
HDI (purchasing power) 0.8 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.0
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.4
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.2
Saving rate (level) 14.4 14.3 15.3 14.2 14.4
Financial saving rate (level) 4.2 4.0 5.1 4.4 4.2
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
Profit share 31.6 31.7 31.8 32.0 31.8
Investment ratio 23.9 24.2 24.1 23.5 23.9
Savings ratio 22.5 23.1 22.3 22.7 22.6
Self-financing ratio 94.1 95.3 92.5 96.6 94.4
  • Source: Insee

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 328.8 329.6 330.9 1294.2 1318.6
Total receipts 313.9 313.3 315.9 1230.4 1258.9
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -14.9 -16.3 -15.0 -63.9 -59.7
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.6 -2.8 -2.5 -2.8 -2.5
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q4 2018 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Encadré

To go further

Next publication : May 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


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