24 April 2019

2019- n° 104

In April 2019, the business climate has improved in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - April 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has improved in April 2019, continuing its progressive recovery after its fall at the end of 2018. The composite indicator that measures it stands at 105, above its long-term average (100).

The business climate indicator of March 2019 has been revised upward by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.

In April 2019, fewer managers than in March have indicated a decrease in their past sales. After having reached last month its lowest level since November 2014, the corresponding balance of opinion has bounced back in April but is still below its long-term average. That on expected sales has improved for the third consecutive month and stands above its mean. The ordering intentions have also increased since February: the corresponding balance of opinion stands just above its mean. Business managers are as optimistic as in March concerning the general business outlook of the sector: after a sharp retreat in December, the corresponding balance of opinion has risen for the first three months of the year, and has returned to a level similar to that of November 2018, above its long-term mean. Since the beginning of the year, fewer and fewer retailers have deemed their stocks higher than normal: in April, the associated balance is just below its mean. The balance of opinion on expected prices has risen again and remains above its mean.

Many more managers than in March, particularly in retail trade, have reported a decrease in their staff size during the last three months; the corresponding balance has gone further away from its average. Concerning expected employment, the corresponding balance has improved as a whole, but with discrepancies among the sectors: it has bounced back sharply in retail trade where it has nearly returned to its mean, whereas its has edged down in retail trade while remaining well above its average.

In retail trade, the business climate is less deteriorated than in March: the composite indicator that measures it has gained three points, to 98, but remains below its long-term mean.

As a whole, fewer retailers than in March have indicated a decrease in their past sales: the corresponding balance has bounced back after having steeply fallen in the previous month, but is still largely below its mean. As for the future sales, the balance of opinion has risen again for the whole sector, but with divided opinions according to the kind of trade. In the non-specialised retail trade, many more retailers than last month have anticipated an increase in their future sales: the corresponding balance has advanced again and stands above its mean. Contrariwise, in specialised retail trade, the associated balance has slipped back after a sharp rebound in March and has fallen to its mean. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has gone up sharply again in specialised retail and has moved above its long-term mean. Retailers are also a little more optimistic than in March concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance has increased slightly and has reached its highest level since November 2018, above its long-term mean. Overall, as many retailers as in March have reported stocks lower than normal: the corresponding balance remains below its mean. Virtually as many retailers as last month have planned to rise their prices: the corresponding balance remains above its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has gained two points in April. At 110, it remains largely above its long-term average (100).

The balance concerning the past sales has gone up sharply and has moved above its long-term mean. That on expected sales has decreased for the second consecutive month but remains also above its mean. The balance of opinion on general business outlook has hardly decreased and stands well above its mean. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has slightly picked up but is still below its mean. Stocks are deemed less higher than in March: the corresponding balance has sharply fallen back and has gone below its average. Well above its mean, the balance of opinion on expected prices has risen again after a sharp increase last month.