Insee conjoncture
21 février 2019
N° 2019-43

In February 2019, the French business climate is virtually stable and the employment climate improvesBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - February 2019

In February 2019, the business climate is virtually stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point: it stands at 103, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator is stable in manufacturing industry, has increased by two points in building construction and in retail trade but it has lost two points in services. The business climate is above its long-term mean in those four sectors.

Informations rapides
No 43
Paru le : 21/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 26/03/2019 at 08:45 - March 2019

The French business climate is virtually stable, above its long-term mean

In February 2019, the business climate is virtually stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point: it stands at 103, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator is stable in manufacturing industry, has increased by two points in building construction and in retail trade but it has lost two points in services. The business climate is above its long-term mean in those four sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.1
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.6
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.8
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.8
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.7
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.3
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.1
2001-08 100.6
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.7
2002-02 96.3
2002-03 98.3
2002-04 101.3
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.1
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.7
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 90.0
2003-04 87.5
2003-05 91.8
2003-06 91.8
2003-07 94.3
2003-08 95.2
2003-09 95.2
2003-10 96.2
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.0
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.9
2004-09 106.7
2004-10 107.9
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.9
2005-01 106.4
2005-02 106.5
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.1
2005-06 104.3
2005-07 105.0
2005-08 104.8
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.9
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.2
2008-05 103.4
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.1
2008-08 94.8
2008-09 92.0
2008-10 83.3
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 75.6
2009-01 73.8
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.1
2009-04 69.0
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.5
2009-08 81.3
2009-09 84.9
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 89.8
2009-12 90.4
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 97.1
2010-05 98.4
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.5
2010-09 104.0
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.7
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.4
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.3
2011-09 98.2
2011-10 96.7
2011-11 94.7
2011-12 93.2
2012-01 92.5
2012-02 92.3
2012-03 94.8
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.9
2012-06 90.8
2012-07 88.6
2012-08 88.1
2012-09 86.7
2012-10 84.5
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.9
2013-01 86.9
2013-02 86.9
2013-03 85.2
2013-04 83.5
2013-05 84.8
2013-06 85.9
2013-07 87.5
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 94.0
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.9
2013-12 92.7
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 94.5
2014-05 94.2
2014-06 93.1
2014-07 92.4
2014-08 91.1
2014-09 90.5
2014-10 90.6
2014-11 92.6
2014-12 92.6
2015-01 92.9
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.9
2015-04 96.0
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.9
2015-07 98.3
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.7
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.8
2015-12 99.3
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 100.5
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.1
2016-06 100.4
2016-07 101.2
2016-08 100.6
2016-09 101.2
2016-10 101.3
2016-11 101.8
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 103.5
2017-02 104.1
2017-03 104.3
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.3
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.8
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.3
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.8
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 102.4
2019-02 102.9

French business climate composite indicator

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan. 18 Feb. 19
Business climates
France 104 105 102 102 103
Manufacturing 104 105 103 103 103
Building construction 108 109 110 109 111
Services 103 104 102 104 102
Retail trade 105 107 99 100 102
Wholesale trade 104 99
Employment climate
Employment 107 105 104 104 106
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has improved, to a relatively high level

In February 2019, the employment climate has improved: the associated composite indicator has gained two points and stands at 106, well above its long-term average. This improvement is due to the increase, in the one hand, in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in service sector excluding temporary work agencies (despite the decrease about expected employment in that sub-sector), and in the other hand, in the balances on past and expected workforce size in temporary work agencies, and on past employment in wholesale trade.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.0
1998-02 103.8
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.6
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.2
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.8
1998-10 105.8
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.1
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.6
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.3
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 121.0
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.9
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.5
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.7
2001-08 108.1
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.4
2001-11 102.4
2001-12 105.4
2002-01 103.6
2002-02 101.5
2002-03 103.3
2002-04 106.9
2002-05 104.7
2002-06 103.1
2002-07 104.1
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 97.8
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.6
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.2
2003-02 95.8
2003-03 92.3
2003-04 90.7
2003-05 90.0
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 93.4
2003-08 93.8
2003-09 93.8
2003-10 94.7
2003-11 93.4
2003-12 96.4
2004-01 98.9
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.4
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 103.7
2004-06 100.8
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.9
2004-09 101.7
2004-10 102.9
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 101.9
2005-01 101.7
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 105.1
2005-04 101.9
2005-05 102.5
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 103.2
2005-08 103.8
2005-09 104.2
2005-10 104.5
2005-11 103.9
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.3
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.7
2006-06 110.5
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.5
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.4
2006-12 112.1
2007-01 110.2
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.8
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.0
2007-06 113.3
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 112.9
2007-09 114.0
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.5
2007-12 115.7
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.6
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.9
2008-06 105.1
2008-07 105.5
2008-08 100.9
2008-09 99.6
2008-10 94.6
2008-11 87.5
2008-12 81.8
2009-01 79.3
2009-02 78.2
2009-03 71.5
2009-04 72.0
2009-05 70.8
2009-06 72.0
2009-07 76.1
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.5
2009-10 82.6
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 98.4
2010-08 98.7
2010-09 100.3
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.5
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.6
2011-07 109.6
2011-08 105.1
2011-09 103.4
2011-10 100.3
2011-11 100.3
2011-12 98.8
2012-01 97.1
2012-02 97.1
2012-03 98.7
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.8
2012-07 91.2
2012-08 92.5
2012-09 90.4
2012-10 90.2
2012-11 89.1
2012-12 88.8
2013-01 91.9
2013-02 88.0
2013-03 87.0
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 85.5
2013-06 87.8
2013-07 89.1
2013-08 88.9
2013-09 91.2
2013-10 93.2
2013-11 92.4
2013-12 94.4
2014-01 94.7
2014-02 94.1
2014-03 94.9
2014-04 97.9
2014-05 96.4
2014-06 94.8
2014-07 95.2
2014-08 93.8
2014-09 94.3
2014-10 94.1
2014-11 94.2
2014-12 94.3
2015-01 93.2
2015-02 95.5
2015-03 94.8
2015-04 96.9
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 99.0
2015-07 99.5
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.3
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.9
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.7
2016-03 100.2
2016-04 100.6
2016-05 102.6
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.1
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.5
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 108.2
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.3
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 108.6
2018-01 109.1
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 110.2
2018-04 108.3
2018-05 108.4
2018-06 110.2
2018-07 107.8
2018-08 106.8
2018-09 107.6
2018-10 107.1
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 103.9
2019-01 104.3
2019-02 105.9

French employment climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan. 18 Feb. 19
France 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5
Manufacturing 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4
Building construction 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9
Services -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7
Wholesale trade 0.4 -0.4
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
1998-01 0.97
1998-02 0.99
1998-03 1.0
1998-04 0.92
1998-05 0.82
1998-06 0.75
1998-07 0.68
1998-08 0.62
1998-09 0.56
1998-10 -0.9
1998-11 -0.83
1998-12 -0.9
1999-01 -0.73
1999-02 0.05
1999-03 0.57
1999-04 0.75
1999-05 0.97
1999-06 0.96
1999-07 1.0
1999-08 1.0
1999-09 1.0
1999-10 0.99
1999-11 0.89
1999-12 0.8
2000-01 0.72
2000-02 0.74
2000-03 0.98
2000-04 1.0
2000-05 0.95
2000-06 1.0
2000-07 0.91
2000-08 0.81
2000-09 0.74
2000-10 0.85
2000-11 0.72
2000-12 0.64
2001-01 0.54
2001-02 0.52
2001-03 0.48
2001-04 -0.94
2001-05 -0.85
2001-06 -0.69
2001-07 -0.63
2001-08 -0.95
2001-09 -1.0
2001-10 -0.9
2001-11 -0.71
2001-12 -0.59
2002-01 0.54
2002-02 0.56
2002-03 0.94
2002-04 0.82
2002-05 0.73
2002-06 0.36
2002-07 -0.82
2002-08 -0.7
2002-09 -0.55
2002-10 -0.5
2002-11 -0.4
2002-12 -0.33
2003-01 -0.58
2003-02 -0.46
2003-03 -0.99
2003-04 -0.85
2003-05 -0.6
2003-06 -0.67
2003-07 0.43
2003-08 0.88
2003-09 0.99
2003-10 0.94
2003-11 1.0
2003-12 1.0
2004-01 0.99
2004-02 0.92
2004-03 0.88
2004-04 0.8
2004-05 0.72
2004-06 0.64
2004-07 0.59
2004-08 0.54
2004-09 0.49
2004-10 0.65
2004-11 0.03
2004-12 0.65
2005-01 0.41
2005-02 0.4
2005-03 0.64
2005-04 0.46
2005-05 0.44
2005-06 0.99
2005-07 0.88
2005-08 0.8
2005-09 0.96
2005-10 0.96
2005-11 0.84
2005-12 0.78
2006-01 0.91
2006-02 0.78
2006-03 0.71
2006-04 0.71
2006-05 0.98
2006-06 0.78
2006-07 0.92
2006-08 0.95
2006-09 1.0
2006-10 0.74
2006-11 0.8
2006-12 0.7
2007-01 0.66
2007-02 0.91
2007-03 0.77
2007-04 0.75
2007-05 0.67
2007-06 0.89
2007-07 0.89
2007-08 0.76
2007-09 0.69
2007-10 0.62
2007-11 0.86
2007-12 0.7
2008-01 0.63
2008-02 0.58
2008-03 0.56
2008-04 0.29
2008-05 -0.91
2008-06 -0.96
2008-07 -1.0
2008-08 -0.86
2008-09 -0.91
2008-10 -1.0
2008-11 -1.0
2008-12 -1.0
2009-01 -0.98
2009-02 -1.0
2009-03 -0.99
2009-04 -0.83
2009-05 0.09
2009-06 0.41
2009-07 0.24
2009-08 0.21
2009-09 0.88
2009-10 0.9
2009-11 0.45
2009-12 -0.31
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.95
2010-09 0.94
2010-10 0.93
2010-11 0.83
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.0
2015-04 0.04
2015-05 0.21
2015-06 0.12
2015-07 0.19
2015-08 0.16
2015-09 0.09
2015-10 0.15
2015-11 0.11
2015-12 0.11
2016-01 0.74
2016-02 0.73
2016-03 0.58
2016-04 0.54
2016-05 0.8
2016-06 -0.34
2016-07 0.25
2016-08 0.11
2016-09 0.68
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.42
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.45
2018-11 0.51
2018-12 0.42
2019-01 0.68
2019-02 0.53

Turning-point indicator

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in January 2019, the business climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point in services and in retail trade. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 08:45 am


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