Informations rapides
23 January 2019
2019- n° 12
In January 2019, the business climate is stable in the manufacturing industry Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - January 2019

According to the business managers surveyed in January 2019, the business climate in industry remains above its average. The composite indicator is stable at 103 in January, after having declined by two points in December.

Informations rapides
No 12
Paru le :Paru le23/01/2019
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024
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According to the business managers surveyed in January 2019, the business climate in industry remains above its average. The composite indicator is stable at 103 in January, after having declined by two points in December.

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator
1998-01 112.6
1998-02 113.1
1998-03 117.0
1998-04 115.1
1998-05 114.8
1998-06 115.1
1998-07 113.7
1998-08 112.7
1998-09 111.9
1998-10 106.7
1998-11 104.0
1998-12 102.1
1999-01 101.4
1999-02 101.8
1999-03 96.8
1999-04 98.3
1999-05 100.5
1999-06 99.6
1999-07 105.8
1999-08 109.0
1999-09 111.8
1999-10 113.2
1999-11 116.5
1999-12 114.1
2000-01 115.6
2000-02 117.4
2000-03 119.7
2000-04 119.7
2000-05 121.1
2000-06 124.0
2000-07 121.0
2000-08 121.2
2000-09 120.9
2000-10 119.9
2000-11 118.0
2000-12 114.1
2001-01 112.9
2001-02 112.8
2001-03 111.5
2001-04 107.2
2001-05 105.4
2001-06 103.8
2001-07 101.5
2001-08 98.5
2001-09 95.2
2001-10 94.8
2001-11 90.8
2001-12 92.2
2002-01 93.3
2002-02 94.8
2002-03 96.8
2002-04 98.4
2002-05 102.0
2002-06 100.3
2002-07 97.3
2002-08 98.0
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.7
2002-11 96.3
2002-12 100.8
2003-01 97.7
2003-02 97.2
2003-03 92.7
2003-04 91.8
2003-05 91.4
2003-06 89.8
2003-07 92.5
2003-08 92.4
2003-09 92.7
2003-10 95.6
2003-11 99.9
2003-12 100.5
2004-01 100.2
2004-02 100.5
2004-03 103.6
2004-04 103.4
2004-05 104.7
2004-06 105.4
2004-07 105.2
2004-08 105.3
2004-09 105.3
2004-10 105.1
2004-11 103.1
2004-12 103.3
2005-01 103.3
2005-02 103.2
2005-03 99.8
2005-04 96.5
2005-05 97.1
2005-06 99.0
2005-07 100.1
2005-08 99.6
2005-09 99.0
2005-10 101.1
2005-11 100.9
2005-12 104.1
2006-01 102.9
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 106.3
2006-04 107.9
2006-05 108.8
2006-06 108.6
2006-07 108.7
2006-08 108.3
2006-09 107.9
2006-10 107.2
2006-11 109.6
2006-12 109.2
2007-01 108.2
2007-02 111.7
2007-03 111.2
2007-04 111.9
2007-05 109.9
2007-06 111.0
2007-07 111.4
2007-08 110.8
2007-09 110.4
2007-10 109.9
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 112.4
2008-01 110.5
2008-02 110.3
2008-03 109.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 104.1
2008-06 103.4
2008-07 98.7
2008-08 97.8
2008-09 91.4
2008-10 86.9
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 73.2
2009-01 72.1
2009-02 68.1
2009-03 66.3
2009-04 70.2
2009-05 72.1
2009-06 75.0
2009-07 76.4
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 84.2
2009-10 85.4
2009-11 88.0
2009-12 87.8
2010-01 90.5
2010-02 88.9
2010-03 91.4
2010-04 95.5
2010-05 97.0
2010-06 96.0
2010-07 97.4
2010-08 100.7
2010-09 103.1
2010-10 104.4
2010-11 101.9
2010-12 104.3
2011-01 108.9
2011-02 107.2
2011-03 110.3
2011-04 110.1
2011-05 107.3
2011-06 110.0
2011-07 104.8
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 97.3
2011-11 97.4
2011-12 94.5
2012-01 95.0
2012-02 94.8
2012-03 96.3
2012-04 95.5
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 93.0
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.8
2012-09 92.4
2012-10 87.0
2012-11 91.6
2012-12 90.8
2013-01 89.6
2013-02 90.4
2013-03 90.5
2013-04 87.7
2013-05 92.0
2013-06 92.6
2013-07 94.7
2013-08 98.6
2013-09 95.8
2013-10 97.9
2013-11 98.2
2013-12 99.3
2014-01 99.5
2014-02 98.3
2014-03 100.8
2014-04 100.3
2014-05 98.4
2014-06 96.7
2014-07 96.3
2014-08 96.6
2014-09 96.8
2014-10 97.5
2014-11 98.9
2014-12 98.6
2015-01 98.7
2015-02 98.4
2015-03 98.8
2015-04 101.5
2015-05 102.0
2015-06 100.2
2015-07 101.7
2015-08 103.7
2015-09 104.8
2015-10 103.1
2015-11 102.4
2015-12 102.2
2016-01 102.4
2016-02 102.7
2016-03 102.3
2016-04 104.6
2016-05 104.6
2016-06 101.4
2016-07 101.7
2016-08 101.8
2016-09 103.4
2016-10 101.9
2016-11 102.2
2016-12 105.4
2017-01 105.7
2017-02 106.4
2017-03 105.5
2017-04 108.4
2017-05 109.1
2017-06 108.8
2017-07 108.2
2017-08 110.6
2017-09 110.8
2017-10 110.8
2017-11 111.8
2017-12 111.2
2018-01 113.3
2018-02 112.0
2018-03 110.4
2018-04 110.1
2018-05 110.2
2018-06 109.6
2018-07 108.8
2018-08 109.7
2018-09 107.1
2018-10 104.0
2018-11 105.5
2018-12 102.7
2019-01 102.9

Business climate in manufacturing - Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Figure1 – Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %, SA
Industrialists’ opinion on manufacturing activity (Balance of opinion, in %, SA)
Ave.* oct.-18 nov.-18 déc.-18 Jan.-19
Industrie manufacturière
Composite indicator 100 104 105 103 103
Past activity 5 6 13 5 9
Finished-goods inventory 13 9 9 10 8
Overall order books -18 -12 -10 -13 -12
Export order books -14 -7 -10 -9 -11
Past workforce size -10 0 -1 1 3
Expected workforce size -12 0 -1 4 1
Personal production expectations 5 10 14 11 9
General production expectations -8 7 4 -10 -11
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Manufacturers remain pessimistic about the general production prospects for the sector

The balance of industrialists’ opinion on past activity has picked up, and has returned above its long term average.Conversely, that on personal production expectations has slightly declined in January. The balance of opinion on the general production prospects for the sector is virtually stable, after having significantly dropped in December. It remains below its long-term average, at its lowest level since January 2015.

Industrialists’ opinion on overall order books has slightly improved, despite the dip in that on export order books. The corresponding balances remain above their average.

Slightly fewer industrialists than in Decemberconsider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance has stood below its long-term mean since August 2016.

As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has slightly increased again, while that on expected workforce size has fallen back. Both balances remain well above their long-term average.

The turning-point indicator stands in the uncertainty area.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.37
2010-02 -0.28
2010-03 0.21
2010-04 0.46
2010-05 0.41
2010-06 0.25
2010-07 0.3
2010-08 0.68
2010-09 0.89
2010-10 0.94
2010-11 -0.48
2010-12 0.67
2011-01 0.95
2011-02 0.72
2011-03 0.87
2011-04 0.75
2011-05 0.55
2011-06 0.69
2011-07 -0.62
2011-08 -0.97
2011-09 -0.96
2011-10 -0.84
2011-11 -0.6
2011-12 -0.81
2012-01 -0.89
2012-02 -0.64
2012-03 0.05
2012-04 -0.15
2012-05 -0.12
2012-06 -0.89
2012-07 -0.92
2012-08 0.32
2012-09 0.25
2012-10 -0.81
2012-11 0.47
2012-12 0.17
2013-01 0.07
2013-02 0.08
2013-03 -0.03
2013-04 -0.88
2013-05 0.0
2013-06 0.6
2013-07 0.86
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.85
2013-10 0.84
2013-11 0.29
2013-12 0.87
2014-01 0.94
2014-02 0.72
2014-03 0.94
2014-04 0.78
2014-05 0.6
2014-06 0.44
2014-07 0.52
2014-08 0.49
2014-09 0.63
2014-10 0.48
2014-11 0.78
2014-12 0.67
2015-01 0.64
2015-02 0.57
2015-03 0.81
2015-04 0.79
2015-05 0.64
2015-06 0.62
2015-07 0.72
2015-08 0.88
2015-09 0.8
2015-10 0.18
2015-11 0.09
2015-12 0.27
2016-01 0.7
2016-02 0.65
2016-03 0.62
2016-04 0.65
2016-05 0.61
2016-06 0.18
2016-07 0.31
2016-08 0.31
2016-09 0.51
2016-10 0.51
2016-11 0.55
2016-12 0.6
2017-01 0.69
2017-02 0.77
2017-03 -0.58
2017-04 0.3
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.45
2017-07 0.53
2017-08 0.64
2017-09 0.86
2017-10 0.82
2017-11 0.72
2017-12 0.76
2018-01 0.95
2018-02 0.75
2018-03 0.6
2018-04 0.62
2018-05 0.5
2018-06 0.4
2018-07 0.28
2018-08 0.43
2018-09 0.51
2018-10 0.38
2018-11 0.57
2018-12 -0.04
2019-01 0.26

Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1, the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (-1 is unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

In the agrofood industry, the business climate is stable

The business climate indicator in the manufacture of food products and beverages is stable in January, at 108. It has stood well above its long-term average (100) for the last three months. The increase in the balances on personal production prospects and on overall order books is offset by the decrease in the balance on past activity.

The business climate is favourable in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has improved again and risen by two points. It had sharply fallen in November. At 104, it stands slightly higher above its long-term average. This improvement comes from the increase in the balances on export order books and on past activity.

The business climate is more favourable than in December in the electrical equipment industry, where it has returned above its average, and in the computer, electronic and optical product industry. It is stable in machinery and equipment, at its long-term average level.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate is stable

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate indicator is stable. At 102, it is slightly above its long-term average (100).

The climate indicator is stable in the manufacture of other transport equipment and has slightly decreased again in the automotive industry. In this latter branch, the decrease in the balances on export order books and on expected production is partly offset by the increase in the balances on global order books and on past activity.

The business climate is stable in « other manufacturing industries »

The business climate in the overall « other manufacturing » is stable. At 102, it remains slightly above its long-term average.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has slightly increased in clothing-textiles. Conversely, it has declined in the « other manufacturing industries ». It is stable in chemicals, rubber and plastic products, basic metals and wood-paper.

Business climates in a sector-based approach

Business climates in a sector-based approach
(C1) (C3) (C4) (C5)
2011-01 109.4 104.9 105.0 105.0
2011-02 107.7 103.0 99.4 108.2
2011-03 106.9 107.3 106.0 109.6
2011-04 109.1 105.4 105.6 109.7
2011-05 109.7 104.0 105.0 107.5
2011-06 108.7 105.0 109.2 108.6
2011-07 111.1 103.1 103.7 104.7
2011-08 103.8 101.1 101.6 100.2
2011-09 102.0 100.0 98.7 97.9
2011-10 104.5 98.7 100.0 96.2
2011-11 102.3 96.3 102.0 94.0
2011-12 98.2 96.7 99.9 94.4
2012-01 100.0 96.6 94.8 94.0
2012-02 100.5 96.6 93.5 95.8
2012-03 102.3 97.1 102.7 97.1
2012-04 99.3 96.5 93.8 97.7
2012-05 93.8 95.2 94.7 95.7
2012-06 95.0 91.5 95.5 93.5
2012-07 95.0 91.3 95.0 92.2
2012-08 94.0 90.7 95.1 93.4
2012-09 96.9 91.4 96.9 93.5
2012-10 91.5 86.4 95.5 89.4
2012-11 98.8 87.6 92.7 92.2
2012-12 99.1 88.1 92.2 91.7
2013-01 97.9 88.3 92.3 91.1
2013-02 98.1 89.2 94.1 90.2
2013-03 94.2 89.4 93.7 91.1
2013-04 92.1 90.3 92.7 89.2
2013-05 91.9 90.1 94.7 91.7
2013-06 92.8 89.6 94.7 93.1
2013-07 92.5 90.1 98.7 94.9
2013-08 95.8 92.2 101.3 97.0
2013-09 95.2 90.5 97.4 97.0
2013-10 95.7 90.8 103.4 97.7
2013-11 98.5 93.1 101.8 98.6
2013-12 98.9 92.3 99.8 99.0
2014-01 99.8 91.8 102.3 98.4
2014-02 99.3 94.4 97.8 98.2
2014-03 99.9 93.3 100.5 102.1
2014-04 96.0 93.1 102.6 99.9
2014-05 98.3 94.2 98.1 99.3
2014-06 96.2 92.3 97.9 98.3
2014-07 97.3 89.8 99.2 98.8
2014-08 95.7 93.9 97.7 100.3
2014-09 94.6 92.6 100.7 97.0
2014-10 95.8 93.1 97.1 98.4
2014-11 96.4 92.7 100.0 99.6
2014-12 99.3 92.6 99.5 99.9
2015-01 103.5 94.0 101.5 99.4
2015-02 99.5 95.7 100.9 100.0
2015-03 100.7 94.6 105.0 99.8
2015-04 104.6 97.2 106.7 100.4
2015-05 102.5 97.7 104.8 101.3
2015-06 105.5 97.6 105.0 100.6
2015-07 109.0 98.9 104.7 102.7
2015-08 103.8 97.9 107.7 101.4
2015-09 105.5 96.7 108.8 102.4
2015-10 104.2 98.8 107.5 99.7
2015-11 102.5 100.2 107.6 99.4
2015-12 99.9 98.5 107.5 101.3
2016-01 101.9 101.1 107.8 99.0
2016-02 100.1 101.2 108.6 99.7
2016-03 101.6 99.7 105.7 100.8
2016-04 105.7 100.6 108.8 101.0
2016-05 104.2 98.1 105.8 103.8
2016-06 103.6 97.7 105.8 101.1
2016-07 104.7 98.2 105.1 101.6
2016-08 100.0 98.7 103.9 101.3
2016-09 108.5 99.0 105.0 100.4
2016-10 106.3 98.0 105.4 100.9
2016-11 107.9 100.2 102.3 101.3
2016-12 108.2 103.8 104.2 104.2
2017-01 104.3 102.8 106.4 104.9
2017-02 105.2 104.3 106.0 105.9
2017-03 104.4 105.2 105.3 104.6
2017-04 103.8 107.4 105.6 107.6
2017-05 106.8 109.5 105.4 107.2
2017-06 112.1 108.6 105.1 108.1
2017-07 108.7 109.4 108.3 106.7
2017-08 109.7 107.1 108.6 108.3
2017-09 106.4 107.7 109.2 108.4
2017-10 110.6 110.0 108.2 109.9
2017-11 112.7 110.0 109.1 111.0
2017-12 110.8 111.2 109.9 109.9
2018-01 111.4 112.6 111.8 110.3
2018-02 109.7 111.0 111.7 109.7
2018-03 109.2 110.3 111.2 109.2
2018-04 109.6 110.1 112.1 107.5
2018-05 109.0 111.8 108.0 107.8
2018-06 110.3 108.2 109.8 105.3
2018-07 107.9 108.8 106.1 106.6
2018-08 109.3 108.3 106.8 105.8
2018-09 106.5 107.7 105.0 104.8
2018-10 101.9 107.4 103.4 102.3
2018-11 109.0 102.3 104.0 102.8
2018-12 107.5 102.3 101.9 101.5
2019-01 108.0 104.1 101.8 101.6

Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing
  • Source: INSEE.

Figure2 – Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach (Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990)
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) nov.-18 déc.-18 Jan.-19
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 109 108 108
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 102 102 104
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 103 111 114
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 101 97 101
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 101 100 100
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 17 104 102 102
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 8 100 98 97
[CL2] Other transport equipment 9 105 104 104
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 103 102 102
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 106 110 111
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 100 94 94
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 9 101 102 102
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 106 101 101
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 102 99 99
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 102 104 102
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing in December 2018 has been lowered from 104 to 103 since its first estimation published last month, due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue :21 February 2019 at 8h45

Documentation

Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)

Monthly outlook survey in industry

Aggregated classification - NA, 2008

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of « increase » responses and the percentage of « decrease » responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the « Documentation » tab of this page.

Next issue :21 February 2019 at 8h45

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