15 January 2019

2019- n° 5

In December 2018, consumer prices were stable over one month and rose by 1.6% year on year Consumer price index - final results - December 2018

In December 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was stable over a month, after a 0.2% downturn in November. The sharp drop in energy prices (−2.4% after −0.7%) and the downturn in those of manufactured products (−0.2% after +0.1%) were indeed offset by a rebound in the prices of services (+0.4% after −0.3%) and food (+0.6% after −0.2%).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices edged down by 0.2% over a month, after a 0.1% downturn in November.

Year on year, consumer prices slowed down for the second consecutive month: +1.6% in December after +1.9% in November and +2.2% in October. This drop in inflation came from a year-on-year slowdown in energy, services and tobacco prices and a larger drop in manufactured product prices. Contrariwise, food prices accelerated.

Year on year, core inflation was unchanged: +0.7%, as in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) barely recovered over a month (+0.1% after −0.2% in November); year on year, it grew by 1.9%, after +2.2% in the previous month.

Energy inflation fell in December 2018 for the second consecutive month (+8.0% year on year after +11.2% in November). This drop was due to a pronounced slowdown in petroleum products prices (+9.5% year on year after +14.7%): over a month, they fell by 3.9%, in the wake of petroleum prices. Gas prices slowed down after seven consecutive months of acceleration (+22.5% year on year after +26.2%).

Year on year, services prices rose by 0.9% in December 2018, after +1.0% in the previous month. Health services prices fell back by 0.4% year on year, after +0.3% in November, partly due to a temporary drop in the prices of medical analysis laboratories. Accommodation services prices slowed down again (+2.5% after +4.0%). Transport prices accelerated (+0.5% year on year after +0.3%), due to a rebound in airfares (+0.9% after −0.3%).

Year on year, the fall in manufactured product prices was accentuated in December (−0.5% after −0.3%). This sharper drop came from that of the prices in clothing and footwear (−0.3% year on year after −0.1%) and in health products (−3.0% after −2.2%). The prices of “other manufactured products” were stable year on year after a 0.2% increase in November. Furniture prices (−0.5% after +0.6%) and household textiles (−0.6% after 0.0%) dropped. Contrariwise, the drop in household appliances prices was less pronounced than in the previous month (−0.9% after −1.9%).

In December 2018, food prices gathered pace after two consecutive months of slowdown: +2.5% year on year after +1.9% in the previous month. Those in fresh products were sharply more dynamic (+7.8% year on year after +5.0%); fresh vegetables prices strongly accelerated (+11.4% after +5.3%) and those of fresh fruits (+4.2% year on year after +3.5%) and fresh fish (+4.4% after +2.5%) gathered pace, but more moderatly. Excluding fresh products, food prices also rose more than in the previous month (+1.6% after +1.4%), due to higher prices in alcoholic beverages (+2.0% after +1.6%), milk, cheese and eggs (+2.1% after +1.8%) and oils and fats (+5.8% after +5.4%).

Compared with the provisional estimates published on January 4, 2019, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP are confirmed.