Insee conjoncture
9 janvier 2019
N° 2019-2

In December 2018, households’ confidence fell againMonthly consumer confidence survey - December 2018

In December 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined sharply: the synthetic index has lost 4 points and reached 87, its lowest level since November 2014, clearly below its long term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 2
Paru le : 09/01/2019
Prochaine parution le : 29/01/2019 at 08:45 - January 2019

In December 2018, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined sharply: the synthetic index has lost 4 points and reached 87, its lowest level since November 2014, clearly below its long term average (100).

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Consumer confidence synthetic index
Consumer confidence synthetic index
2000-01 118
2000-02 118
2000-03 119
2000-04 122
2000-05 122
2000-06 122
2000-07 123
2000-08 121
2000-09 118
2000-10 119
2000-11 119
2000-12 123
2001-01 126
2001-02 124
2001-03 122
2001-04 120
2001-05 116
2001-06 114
2001-07 114
2001-08 112
2001-09 110
2001-10 111
2001-11 112
2001-12 112
2002-01 112
2002-02 111
2002-03 111
2002-04 109
2002-05 112
2002-06 111
2002-07 109
2002-08 108
2002-09 106
2002-10 107
2002-11 108
2002-12 108
2003-01 104
2003-02 102
2003-03 98
2003-04 99
2003-05 101
2003-06 101
2003-07 100
2003-08 100
2003-09 99
2003-10 98
2003-11 98
2003-12 98
2004-01 99
2004-02 98
2004-03 99
2004-04 101
2004-05 100
2004-06 99
2004-07 99
2004-08 100
2004-09 102
2004-10 101
2004-11 100
2004-12 99
2005-01 97
2005-02 99
2005-03 97
2005-04 97
2005-05 95
2005-06 94
2005-07 94
2005-08 93
2005-09 92
2005-10 92
2005-11 92
2005-12 95
2006-01 97
2006-02 98
2006-03 97
2006-04 96
2006-05 95
2006-06 96
2006-07 98
2006-08 98
2006-09 99
2006-10 99
2006-11 99
2006-12 98
2007-01 99
2007-02 99
2007-03 101
2007-04 101
2007-05 108
2007-06 108
2007-07 107
2007-08 104
2007-09 101
2007-10 100
2007-11 94
2007-12 94
2008-01 90
2008-02 90
2008-03 89
2008-04 88
2008-05 85
2008-06 82
2008-07 81
2008-08 82
2008-09 84
2008-10 82
2008-11 83
2008-12 83
2009-01 84
2009-02 84
2009-03 84
2009-04 86
2009-05 86
2009-06 89
2009-07 89
2009-08 89
2009-09 90
2009-10 90
2009-11 93
2009-12 94
2010-01 94
2010-02 92
2010-03 91
2010-04 89
2010-05 88
2010-06 87
2010-07 87
2010-08 89
2010-09 90
2010-10 91
2010-11 93
2010-12 90
2011-01 89
2011-02 89
2011-03 87
2011-04 86
2011-05 87
2011-06 86
2011-07 89
2011-08 86
2011-09 84
2011-10 87
2011-11 84
2011-12 83
2012-01 84
2012-02 85
2012-03 89
2012-04 90
2012-05 92
2012-06 92
2012-07 89
2012-08 86
2012-09 85
2012-10 84
2012-11 84
2012-12 86
2013-01 85
2013-02 86
2013-03 83
2013-04 84
2013-05 80
2013-06 79
2013-07 83
2013-08 85
2013-09 86
2013-10 87
2013-11 84
2013-12 85
2014-01 86
2014-02 85
2014-03 88
2014-04 85
2014-05 85
2014-06 86
2014-07 87
2014-08 86
2014-09 86
2014-10 86
2014-11 87
2014-12 90
2015-01 90
2015-02 92
2015-03 94
2015-04 95
2015-05 93
2015-06 94
2015-07 93
2015-08 94
2015-09 97
2015-10 96
2015-11 96
2015-12 96
2016-01 97
2016-02 96
2016-03 95
2016-04 94
2016-05 98
2016-06 97
2016-07 95
2016-08 96
2016-09 97
2016-10 98
2016-11 99
2016-12 99
2017-01 100
2017-02 101
2017-03 101
2017-04 100
2017-05 102
2017-06 108
2017-07 104
2017-08 103
2017-09 101
2017-10 100
2017-11 103
2017-12 105
2018-01 105
2018-02 100
2018-03 101
2018-04 101
2018-05 99
2018-06 97
2018-07 97
2018-08 96
2018-09 94
2018-10 94
2018-11 91
2018-12 87

Consumer confidence synthetic index

Personal situation

Suitable time to make major purchases: clear drop

In December, the share of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased clearly again. The corresponding balance has lost 15 points and reached its lowest level since June 2013, clearly below its long term average.

Personal financial situation: decreasing sharply

Households’ opinion balance on their past personal situation has declined sharply: it has lost 5 points and remains below its long term average. Similarly, households’ opinion balance on their future financial situation has decreased again: it has lost 3 points and remains below its long term average.

Expected and current saving capacity: sharp decline

In December, households’ opinion balance on their saving capacity has declined sharply: the balance corresponding to current saving capacity has lost 5 points; that of excepted saving capacity has lost 7 points. These two balances remain below their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save also decreased strongly: the corresponding balance has lost 9 points and remains below its long term average.

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
Standard of living, future Standard of living, past Financial situation, future Financial situation, past
2010-01 -32 -62 -9 -24
2010-02 -34 -67 -12 -27
2010-03 -40 -69 -13 -26
2010-04 -46 -69 -16 -27
2010-05 -52 -69 -19 -27
2010-06 -55 -71 -19 -27
2010-07 -49 -71 -19 -30
2010-08 -43 -66 -18 -29
2010-09 -42 -64 -18 -28
2010-10 -40 -64 -15 -28
2010-11 -38 -64 -11 -23
2010-12 -42 -68 -16 -26
2011-01 -44 -70 -18 -26
2011-02 -46 -67 -18 -27
2011-03 -51 -69 -23 -29
2011-04 -56 -71 -21 -31
2011-05 -49 -68 -20 -31
2011-06 -48 -68 -21 -33
2011-07 -42 -67 -18 -31
2011-08 -56 -71 -23 -30
2011-09 -55 -75 -24 -31
2011-10 -51 -73 -21 -29
2011-11 -59 -74 -25 -30
2011-12 -57 -74 -30 -32
2012-01 -54 -73 -27 -32
2012-02 -49 -73 -26 -32
2012-03 -40 -68 -19 -29
2012-04 -38 -66 -16 -29
2012-05 -30 -65 -16 -26
2012-06 -30 -68 -16 -27
2012-07 -43 -69 -19 -27
2012-08 -51 -72 -19 -29
2012-09 -57 -75 -21 -29
2012-10 -60 -73 -25 -29
2012-11 -55 -73 -25 -31
2012-12 -54 -69 -23 -29
2013-01 -58 -69 -25 -28
2013-02 -56 -71 -24 -27
2013-03 -61 -75 -26 -29
2013-04 -62 -76 -25 -28
2013-05 -63 -79 -26 -37
2013-06 -66 -80 -27 -35
2013-07 -57 -77 -24 -34
2013-08 -50 -73 -22 -33
2013-09 -46 -72 -20 -33
2013-10 -45 -69 -18 -35
2013-11 -54 -75 -19 -34
2013-12 -50 -73 -22 -34
2014-01 -47 -71 -19 -35
2014-02 -52 -72 -20 -34
2014-03 -47 -69 -19 -29
2014-04 -45 -70 -27 -32
2014-05 -50 -70 -22 -33
2014-06 -48 -69 -20 -36
2014-07 -49 -70 -17 -32
2014-08 -47 -70 -20 -33
2014-09 -51 -71 -20 -30
2014-10 -50 -74 -20 -31
2014-11 -48 -68 -17 -33
2014-12 -44 -66 -16 -27
2015-01 -42 -67 -17 -29
2015-02 -37 -61 -15 -27
2015-03 -34 -59 -13 -27
2015-04 -35 -58 -12 -24
2015-05 -34 -58 -13 -27
2015-06 -35 -58 -12 -27
2015-07 -36 -58 -12 -29
2015-08 -33 -57 -12 -29
2015-09 -28 -52 -6 -26
2015-10 -30 -54 -10 -24
2015-11 -31 -54 -10 -24
2015-12 -32 -54 -7 -26
2016-01 -26 -56 -9 -24
2016-02 -32 -56 -10 -24
2016-03 -35 -56 -12 -24
2016-04 -37 -57 -13 -25
2016-05 -28 -48 -10 -25
2016-06 -33 -53 -10 -23
2016-07 -32 -53 -10 -28
2016-08 -34 -54 -10 -22
2016-09 -29 -54 -9 -23
2016-10 -28 -53 -7 -23
2016-11 -24 -49 -8 -24
2016-12 -25 -51 -8 -22
2017-01 -26 -49 -5 -22
2017-02 -22 -48 -5 -22
2017-03 -23 -47 -7 -20
2017-04 -23 -51 -10 -19
2017-05 -17 -45 -6 -19
2017-06 1 -38 -3 -14
2017-07 -11 -39 -11 -17
2017-08 -20 -40 -10 -17
2017-09 -21 -41 -11 -21
2017-10 -24 -40 -16 -22
2017-11 -17 -39 -10 -19
2017-12 -15 -31 -9 -17
2018-01 -18 -33 -12 -16
2018-02 -24 -36 -18 -22
2018-03 -24 -38 -12 -24
2018-04 -23 -36 -11 -26
2018-05 -28 -40 -13 -25
2018-06 -32 -44 -13 -27
2018-07 -31 -46 -11 -28
2018-08 -29 -47 -12 -30
2018-09 -36 -50 -17 -30
2018-10 -31 -52 -16 -30
2018-11 -42 -58 -19 -28
2018-12 -42 -66 -22 -33

Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) September 18 October 18 November 18 December 18
Synthetic index (2) 100 94 94 91 87
Financial sit., past 12 m. -21 -30 -30 -28 -33
Financial sit., next 12 m. -6 -17 -16 -19 -22
Current saving capacity 8 10 12 11 6
Expected saving capacity -9 -9 -9 -14 -21
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 5 4 4 -5
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. -14 -8 -9 -17 -32
Standard of living, past 12 m. -45 -50 -52 -58 -66
Standard of living, next 12 m. -25 -36 -31 -42 -42
Unemployment, next 12 m. 33 20 7 28 31
Consumer prices, past 12 m. -17 -15 -14 -11 -11
Consumer prices, next 12 m. -33 -17 -15 -12 -25
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2018
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987–2018).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Past standard of living in France: strong degradation

In December, the share of households considering that the past standard of living in France improved during the past twelve months has declined clearly again: the corresponding balance has lost 8 points, standing below its long term average.

Households’ opinion balance about the future standard of living in France was stable but remains clearly below its long term average.

Unemployment: fears rising slightly

Households' fears about the unemployment trend have increased again in December: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points (against 21 points in November). It remains below its long term average.

Expected inflation: decreasing again

In December, households considering that prices will be on the rise during the next twelve months have been clearly less numerous than the previous month: the corresponding balance has lost 13 points but remains above its long term average. However, the balance related to the evolution of past prices was stable. It remains above its long term average.

Households' unemployment expectations

Balance, SA
Households' unemployment expectations
Households' unemployment expectations
2010-01 55
2010-02 49
2010-03 58
2010-04 57
2010-05 58
2010-06 65
2010-07 59
2010-08 46
2010-09 31
2010-10 35
2010-11 35
2010-12 34
2011-01 37
2011-02 41
2011-03 33
2011-04 35
2011-05 27
2011-06 29
2011-07 37
2011-08 51
2011-09 57
2011-10 49
2011-11 61
2011-12 59
2012-01 57
2012-02 56
2012-03 52
2012-04 55
2012-05 43
2012-06 53
2012-07 65
2012-08 73
2012-09 73
2012-10 73
2012-11 70
2012-12 74
2013-01 72
2013-02 73
2013-03 77
2013-04 74
2013-05 78
2013-06 78
2013-07 61
2013-08 56
2013-09 51
2013-10 38
2013-11 62
2013-12 48
2014-01 56
2014-02 55
2014-03 55
2014-04 57
2014-05 60
2014-06 67
2014-07 67
2014-08 62
2014-09 67
2014-10 52
2014-11 66
2014-12 66
2015-01 66
2015-02 58
2015-03 44
2015-04 61
2015-05 61
2015-06 60
2015-07 58
2015-08 49
2015-09 44
2015-10 47
2015-11 36
2015-12 45
2016-01 36
2016-02 45
2016-03 39
2016-04 52
2016-05 24
2016-06 25
2016-07 28
2016-08 32
2016-09 28
2016-10 31
2016-11 28
2016-12 19
2017-01 19
2017-02 20
2017-03 21
2017-04 17
2017-05 21
2017-06 6
2017-07 9
2017-08 -3
2017-09 14
2017-10 13
2017-11 5
2017-12 7
2018-01 3
2018-02 5
2018-03 4
2018-04 6
2018-05 2
2018-06 16
2018-07 14
2018-08 22
2018-09 20
2018-10 7
2018-11 28
2018-12 31

Households' unemployment expectations

Households' perception of prices

Balance, SA
Households' perception of prices
Past prices Future prices
2010-01 -14 -41
2010-02 -19 -41
2010-03 -19 -39
2010-04 -10 -34
2010-05 -11 -28
2010-06 -10 -29
2010-07 -6 -27
2010-08 -4 -24
2010-09 -2 -29
2010-10 0 -25
2010-11 3 -25
2010-12 9 -22
2011-01 18 -19
2011-02 25 -9
2011-03 30 6
2011-04 46 0
2011-05 40 -13
2011-06 33 -14
2011-07 32 -18
2011-08 27 -18
2011-09 25 -20
2011-10 22 -23
2011-11 20 -15
2011-12 19 -16
2012-01 21 -17
2012-02 23 -11
2012-03 22 -21
2012-04 27 -20
2012-05 12 -32
2012-06 12 -34
2012-07 -2 -25
2012-08 -1 -16
2012-09 3 -13
2012-10 -1 -15
2012-11 -4 -14
2012-12 -7 -19
2013-01 -8 -19
2013-02 -10 -22
2013-03 -10 -14
2013-04 -13 -20
2013-05 -16 -17
2013-06 -11 -19
2013-07 -8 -17
2013-08 -3 -21
2013-09 4 -24
2013-10 -8 -21
2013-11 -8 -23
2013-12 -8 -17
2014-01 -15 -16
2014-02 -19 -22
2014-03 -23 -27
2014-04 -24 -29
2014-05 -23 -26
2014-06 -28 -31
2014-07 -31 -31
2014-08 -35 -36
2014-09 -40 -33
2014-10 -38 -28
2014-11 -38 -36
2014-12 -46 -43
2015-01 -50 -46
2015-02 -51 -45
2015-03 -53 -47
2015-04 -51 -43
2015-05 -56 -40
2015-06 -54 -38
2015-07 -52 -37
2015-08 -50 -36
2015-09 -52 -41
2015-10 -51 -41
2015-11 -50 -40
2015-12 -51 -39
2016-01 -52 -42
2016-02 -56 -39
2016-03 -57 -37
2016-04 -57 -37
2016-05 -53 -38
2016-06 -53 -35
2016-07 -51 -37
2016-08 -51 -35
2016-09 -45 -34
2016-10 -52 -38
2016-11 -53 -39
2016-12 -49 -29
2017-01 -44 -24
2017-02 -47 -30
2017-03 -46 -26
2017-04 -49 -27
2017-05 -56 -34
2017-06 -55 -40
2017-07 -53 -31
2017-08 -54 -32
2017-09 -54 -30
2017-10 -50 -24
2017-11 -46 -28
2017-12 -48 -35
2018-01 -42 -16
2018-02 -35 -19
2018-03 -38 -24
2018-04 -37 -25
2018-05 -30 -18
2018-06 -25 -20
2018-07 -25 -20
2018-08 -25 -21
2018-09 -15 -17
2018-10 -14 -15
2018-11 -11 -12
2018-12 -11 -25

Households' perception of prices

Encadré

For more information

Definition – The synthetic households’ confidence index summarizes households’ opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more favorable households’ judgement of the economic situation is. It is calculated using a factor analysis technique, which enables to summarize concomitant movements of highly correlated variables. The index describes here the common factor of 8 balances of opinion: past and future general economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, major purchases intentions, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity

Calculation method – Around 2,000 households are surveyed by telephone, during the first three weeks of each month. Answers to this survey were collected between 28 November and 18 December 2018.For each question, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers. Since the level of these balances is not open to direct interpretation, comments are based on their changes and their distance to their long–term average. Seasonal coefficients are calculated again every month, hence the slight revision of the seasonal adjusted balances history at each publication. Moreover, long term averages and seasonal coefficient models have been updated for this publication, thanks to the integration of a complete year of additional data.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
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