21 December 2018
2018- n° 340In December 2018, the French business climate has weakened sharply mainly due to retail
trade; the employment climate is virtually stable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2018
In December 2018, the business climate has deteriorated markedly. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors has lost three points. It stands at 102, its lowest level since December 2016. Compared to the survey of November, the business climate has lost seven points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate remains above or equal its long-term mean in all the sectors.
Retail trade has affected the business climate composite indicator, which has lost three points
In December 2018, the business climate has deteriorated markedly. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors has lost three points. It stands at 102, its lowest level since December 2016. Compared to the survey of November, the business climate has lost seven points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate remains above or equal its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate is virtually stable at a relatively high level
In December 2018, the employment climate is virtually stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 104, above its long-term mean but at its lowest level since March 2017. The rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in the manufacturing industry has offset to a large extent decreases in the other considered sectors.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimate in November 2018, the composite indicators for the business climate for the whole economy and in services have been risen by one point. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | Nov. 18 | Dec. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 105 | 106 | 104 | 105 | 102 |
| Manufacturing | 110 | 107 | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Building | 108 | 108 | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Services | 104 | 105 | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Retail trade | 111 | 108 | 105 | 107 | 100 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 104 | - | 104 | - |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 107 | 108 | 107 | 105 | 104 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | Nov. 18 | Dec. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Building | –0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Services | –0.3 | 0.0 | –0.9 | –0.7 | –0.6 |
| Wholesale trade | - | –0.2 | - | 0.7 | - |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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