Insee conjoncture
21 décembre 2018
N° 2018-340

In December 2018, the French business climate has weakened sharply mainly due to retail trade; the employment climate is virtually stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2018

In December 2018, the business climate has deteriorated markedly. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors has lost three points. It stands at 102, its lowest level since December 2016. Compared to the survey of November, the business climate has lost seven points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate remains above or equal its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides
No 340
Paru le : 21/12/2018
Prochaine parution le : 22/02/2019 at 08:45 - February 2019

Retail trade has affected the business climate composite indicator, which has lost three points

In December 2018, the business climate has deteriorated markedly. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors has lost three points. It stands at 102, its lowest level since December 2016. Compared to the survey of November, the business climate has lost seven points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate remains above or equal its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate is virtually stable at a relatively high level

In December 2018, the employment climate is virtually stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 104, above its long-term mean but at its lowest level since March 2017. The rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in the manufacturing industry has offset to a large extent decreases in the other considered sectors.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate in November 2018, the composite indicators for the business climate for the whole economy and in services have been risen by one point. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph1French business climate composite indicator

Graph3French employment climate composite indicator

Table1Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18
Business climates
France 105 106 104 105 102
Manufacturing 110 107 104 105 104
Building 108 108 108 109 109
Services 104 105 103 104 104
Retail trade 111 108 105 107 100
Wholesale trade - 104 - 104 -
Employment climate
Employment 107 108 107 105 104
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table2Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18
France 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4
Manufacturing 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4
Building –0.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4
Services –0.3 0.0 –0.9 –0.7 –0.6
Wholesale trade - –0.2 - 0.7 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph2Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

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