Insee conjoncture
21 décembre 2018
N° 2018-341

Households' purchasing power increased again in Q3 (+0.4% after +0.8%)Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - third quarter 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.3% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after −0.1%), whereas total gross fixed capital slightly sped up (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.8%). The final domestic demand excluding inventory rose. Its contribution to GDP growth sharply increased (+0.5 points after +0.2 points).

Imports fell back in Q3 (−0.6% after +0.6%), whereas exports increased (+0.3% after +0.0%). All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.3 points after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, inventory changes contributed negatively (−0.4 points after +0.2 points).

Informations rapides
No 341
Paru le : 21/12/2018
Prochaine parution le : 26/03/2019 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.3% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures bounced back (+0.4% after −0.1%), whereas total gross fixed capital slightly sped up (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.8%). The final domestic demand excluding inventory rose. Its contribution to GDP growth sharply increased (+0.5 points after +0.2 points).

Imports fell back in Q3 (−0.6% after +0.6%), whereas exports increased (+0.3% after +0.0%). All in all, the foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.3 points after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, inventory changes contributed negatively (−0.4 points after +0.2 points).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

GraphGDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.3 1.5
Imports 0.2 -0.6 0.6 -0.6 4.1 0.7
Household consumption *expenditure 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 4.7 2.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 1.3 0.1 1.3 1.5 4.4 3.7
Households 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 5.6 1.6
General government 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 1.6 0.8
Exports 2.2 -0.4 0.0 0.3 4.7 2.6
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.0 1.3
Inventory changes -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.4
Net foreign trade 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6
  • Source: INSEE

Tab2Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.6 1.9
Goods 1.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.6 2.2 0.9
Manufactured Industry 1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.7 2.4 0.8
Construction 0.5 -0.4 0.7 0.1 3.5 1.0
Market services 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 3.2 2.7
Non-market services 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.0
Household consumption 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8
Food products 0.3 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.3 -1.2
Energy -1.5 1.1 -2.4 0.0 0.1 -0.7
Engineered goods -0.1 -0.3 1.0 0.7 2.6 1.5
Services 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.3
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 4.7 2.8
Manufactured goods 1.7 -1.3 1.4 2.1 3.7 3.0
Construction 0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.3 3.5 1.3
Market services 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.5 7.0 4.5
  • Source: INSEE

Purchasing power decelerated in Q3 2018

Households' gross disposable income (HDI) slowed down in current euros in Q3 2018 (+0.7% after +1.2%) in connection with the gross payroll growth deceleration (+0.5% after +0.7%). Furthermore, taxes on income and wealth decreased less than in the last quarter and social contributions rose slightly.

Households' consumption prices still grew at the same pace than the last quarter (+0.4%). Thus, purchasing power slowed down (+0.4% after +0.8%). Measured per consumption unit to refer to an individual level, it also decelerated (+0.3% after +0.7%).

In Q3 2018, volume of households' consumption increased at the same pace as purchasing power. As a result, the saving rate was virtually stable: it stood at 14.4% after 14.5% in Q2 2018.

Tab3Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 32.1 32.1 31.7 31.9 32.0  
Households' purchasing power 0.3 -0.5 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.9
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
HDI 0.8 0.1 1.2 0.7 2.7 2.5
Household purchasing power 0.3 -0.5 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.9
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.2 -0.6 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.0
Saving rate (level) 14.3 13.7 14.5 14.4 14.2  
Financial saving rate (level) 4.3 3.5 4.1 4.0 4.4  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Non-financial corporations' profit rose slightly

In Q3 2018, non-financial corporations' profit ratio increased slightly to reach 31.9% (after 31.7%), sustained by productivity gains.

Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
Profit share 32.1 32.1 31.7 31.9 32.0
Investment ratio 23.6 23.6 23.9 24.2 23.5
Savings ratio 22.5 23.0 22.8 23.6 22.7
Self-financing ratio 95.4 97.7 95.7 97.7 96.6
  • Source: INSEE

In Q3 2018, the public deficit increased again

In Q3 2018, general government net borrowing increased by 0.4 points: the public deficit stood at 3.1% of the GDP after 2.7%.

General government expenditure rose: +0.3% after −0.2%. They had declined sharply in the last quarter because of the decrease in repayments concerning the 3% tax on dividends, which stabilized this quarter.

Government receipts declined anew in Q3: −0.5% after −0.6%. Corporate tax revenues continued to decrease according to the cut of the corporate income tax rate for income up to 500,000€ and increase in refunds and rebates.

Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
In billions of euros    
Total expenditure 327.1 329.2 328.6 329.7 1294.3
Total receipts 314.4 314.9 312.9 311.4 1232.7
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -12.7 -14.3 -15.7 -18.3 -61.6
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.2 -2.5 -2.7 -3.1 -2.7
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

GDP growth estimate for Q3 2018 is revised at +0.3% (against +0.4% in second estimate). This revision is mainly due to the integration and revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)

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