Insee conjoncture
22 novembre 2018
N° 2018-306

In November 2018, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate is slightly less favourableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - November 2018

In November 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 104, as in October, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate is stable in services and in wholesale trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry and in building construction, and two points in retail trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides
No 306
Paru le : 22/11/2018
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2018 at 08:45 - December 2018

The business climate indicator is stable

In November 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 104, as in October, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate is stable in services and in wholesale trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry and in building construction, and two points in retail trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate has faltered but remains favourable

In October 2018, the employment climate is slightly less favourable. The associated composite indicator has lost two points. At 105, it has returned to its level of the beginning of 2017, while remaining firmly above its long-term average. Mostly, this decrease comes from the decline in the balance of opinion on expected employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate, the composite indicator for the business climate in services in October 2018 has been lowered by two points. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses. Morever, for September 2018, the composite indicator for the business climate in retail trade has been lowered by one point and the composite indicator for the overall employment climate has been raised by one point, after standardisation and rounding of these indicators.

Graph1French business climate composite indicator

Graph3French employment climate composite indicator

Table1Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18
Business climates
France 106 105 106 104 104
Manufacturing 109 110 107 104 105
Building 109 108 108 108 109
Services 105 104 105 103 103
Retail trade 114 111 108 105 107
Wholesale trade 102 - 104 - 104
Employment climate
Employment 108 107 108 107 105
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table2Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18
France 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5
Manufacturing 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5
Building –0.5 –0.5 0.0 0.1 0.5
Services 0.4 –0.3 0.0 –0.9 –0.7
Wholesale trade 0.1 - –0.2 - 0.7
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph2Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. -1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

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Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2018 at 08:45 - December 2018