22 November 2018
2018- n° 306In November 2018, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate
is slightly less favourable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - November 2018
In November 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 104, as in October, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate is stable in services and in wholesale trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry and in building construction, and two points in retail trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The business climate indicator is stable
In November 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 104, as in October, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate is stable in services and in wholesale trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry and in building construction, and two points in retail trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate has faltered but remains favourable
In October 2018, the employment climate is slightly less favourable. The associated composite indicator has lost two points. At 105, it has returned to its level of the beginning of 2017, while remaining firmly above its long-term average. Mostly, this decrease comes from the decline in the balance of opinion on expected employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate, the composite indicator for the business climate in services in October 2018 has been lowered by two points. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses. Morever, for September 2018, the composite indicator for the business climate in retail trade has been lowered by one point and the composite indicator for the overall employment climate has been raised by one point, after standardisation and rounding of these indicators.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| July 18 | Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | Nov. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 106 | 105 | 106 | 104 | 104 |
| Manufacturing | 109 | 110 | 107 | 104 | 105 |
| Building | 109 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 109 |
| Services | 105 | 104 | 105 | 103 | 103 |
| Retail trade | 114 | 111 | 108 | 105 | 107 |
| Wholesale trade | 102 | - | 104 | - | 104 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 108 | 107 | 108 | 107 | 105 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| July 18 | Aug. 18 | Sept. 18 | Oct. 18 | Nov. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Building | –0.5 | –0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Services | 0.4 | –0.3 | 0.0 | –0.9 | –0.7 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.1 | - | –0.2 | - | 0.7 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. -1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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