Informations rapides
25 September 2018
2018- n° 250
In September 2018, the business climate has improved a little in services Monthly survey of services - September 2018

According to business managers surveyed in September 2018, the business climate in services has improved a little. The composite indicator has recovered by one point. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 250
Paru le :Paru le25/09/2018
Prochaine parution le : 22/05/2025 at 08:45 - May 2025

According to business managers surveyed in September 2018, the business climate in services has improved a little. The composite indicator has recovered by one point. At 105, it remains above its long-term average (100).

Graph 1Business climate composite indicator

In September 2018, the turning point indicator has returned in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Graph 2Turning point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Increase in the balances of opinion on activity

The balances of opinion on general outlook, on past and expected activity and on expected demand have slightly increased. The balance on past activity has reached its average, the three others remain above theirs.

After a rebound in August, the balances on selling prices have decreased. That on past prices stands just above its average, that on expected prices has reached its.

The balances on past and expected employment, virtually stable, stand above their long-term average, as well as that on investments, slightly on the rise.

Table 1Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Average* June 18 July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18
Composite indicator 100 105 105 104 105
General outlook –7 –1 0 –3 –1
Past activity 2 8 5 1 2
Expected activity 2 4 4 4 5
Expected demand 0 4 5 5 6
Past selling prices –4 –1 –7 –2 –3
Expected selling prices –3 –5 –5 0 –3
Past employment 3 9 6 3 4
except temporary work agencies 1 5 1 1 4
Expected employment 3 9 6 7 6
except temporary work agencies 0 5 4 5 4
Investments
Past investments 2 4 7 8 9
Expected investments 2 6 6 4 6
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has improved in all sub-sectors, except in road transport. The composite indicator has stood above its long-term average in almost all sub-sectors. Only the climate in real estate activities remains sharply below its average.

In road transport, the business climate has faltered again

After a decrease of six points in August, the business climate indicator in road transport has still lost two points in September. At 106, it stands however above its average level. The balances on expected activity, on expected demand and on past employment have markedly deteriorated. All balances remain however above their average.

The business climate in accommodation and food services has strongly improved

The business climate in accommodation and food services has gained five points. It has reached 117, its highest level since March 2011. This upturn is due to the sharp increase in the balances on expected demand, and to a lesser extent, on past employment. These two balances have reached their highest level respectively since March 2011 and June 2012. All balances are above their average.

The business climate has strengthened a little in information and communication

In information and communication, the business climate has gained one point (102). The balances on expected activity, expected employment and general outlook have recovered. In contrast, the balances on past activity, on expected demand and on past employment have decreased and stand below their average.

The business climate is less deteriorated in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the climate has gained four points (89) but remains significantly below its average. All balances are either stable or on the rise, in particular that on past activity and on general outlook. The balances on past and expected activity, on past employment and on general outlook remain however far below their average.

In professional activities, the business climate has improved a little

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has gained one point (105). The balances on expected activity, on general outlook and on past and expected employment have recovered whereas that on past activity and on expected demand have fallen back.

The business climate remains favourable in administrative and support service activities

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has gained one point. It has slightly hovered around 108 since May, a level well above its average. All balances are either stable or on the rise and above their long-term average, except that on past employment.

Table 2Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* June 18 July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 111 114 108 106
Past activity –6 7 17 10 13
Expected activity –7 8 14 3 –1
Expected demand –10 16 18 7 1
Past employment –5 6 8 5 0
Expected employment –8 0 5 2 3
General outlook –20 2 5 –6 –3
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 108 113 112 117
Past activity –7 –1 –1 –6 –5
Expected activity –7 1 10 5 8
Expected demand –9 –1 4 –4 13
Past employment –4 2 0 –1 7
Expected employment –5 –5 1 6 –3
General outlook –13 –5 –3 7 3
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 102 101 101 102
Past activity 8 10 10 8 6
Expected activity 9 9 7 5 8
Expected demand 10 2 4 4 3
Past employment 6 9 8 6 2
Expected employment 11 13 12 14 19
General outlook 0 3 1 –1 1
Real estate activities (13%)
Composite indicator 100 87 84 85 89
Past activity 7 6 0 –14 –7
Expected activity 7 –10 –8 –2 –1
Expected demand 2 5 3 5 6
Past employment 3 2 –2 –9 –8
Expected employment 3 7 –3 7 7
General outlook –3 –19 –16 –15 –10
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 108 104 104 105
Past activity –1 9 –2 1 –2
Expected activity –2 7 0 –1 3
Expected demand –5 0 2 4 –1
Past employment 1 13 1 –2 0
Expected employment 1 9 1 2 5
General outlook –9 –1 –3 –4 –1
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 108 108 107 108
Past activity 6 18 13 6 10
Expected activity 5 8 11 15 15
Expected demand 3 13 13 13 16
Past employment 10 13 14 8 6
Expected employment 8 14 11 7 11
General outlook –4 7 9 4 6
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (February 2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (February 2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

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