Informations rapides
29 August 2018
2018 - n° 223
French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2018Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - second quarter 2018

In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).

Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.0% after −0.4%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.2 points after 0.0 points).

Informations rapides
No 223
Paru le : Paru le 29/08/2018

In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).

Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.0% after −0.4%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.2 points after 0.0 points).

GraphGDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 2.3 1.3
Imports 1.9 0.3 -0.4 1.0 4.1 1.4
Household consumption *expenditure 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.6
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.9
GFCF 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.8 4.7 2.3
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 1.6 1.3 0.1 1.3 4.4 2.9
Households 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 5.6 1.6
General government 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.1
Exports 0.9 2.4 -0.4 0.2 4.7 2.6
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 2.0 1.0
Inventory changes 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade -0.3 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.4
  • Source: INSEE

Total production slightly increased

Production in goods and services barely accelerated in Q2 2018 (+0.2% after +0.1%). It fell back again in goods (−0.3% after −0.6%) while it continued to grow in services (+0.4% after +0.3%).

Output in manufactured goods fell back again this quarter (−0.2% after −1.0%). Production in refinery stepped back (−10.2% after −1.6%) due to technical maintenance; production in electricity and gas dropped too (−1.7% after +1.8%). However, construction bounced back (+0.5% after −0.4%).

Tab2Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 2.6 1.5
Goods 1.0 1.1 -0.6 -0.3 2.2 0.6
Manufactured Industry 0.9 1.3 -1.0 -0.2 2.4 0.5
Construction 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.5 3.5 0.9
Market services 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 3.2 2.2
Non-market services 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.0
Household consumption 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.6
Food products -0.5 0.2 -0.3 -1.3 0.3 -1.2
Energy 1.3 -0.6 0.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1
Engineered goods 1.2 -0.1 -0.3 1.1 2.6 1.3
Services 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.6 1.3
GFCF 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.8 4.7 2.3
Manufactured goods 1.8 1.7 -1.0 1.6 3.7 2.4
Construction 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.5 3.5 1.3
Market services 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 7.0 3.6
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption faltered

Household consumption expenditure faltered slightly in Q2 2018 (−0.1% after +0.2%): consumption of goods declined again (−0.3% after −0.1%) and that of services slowed down sharply (+0.1% after +0.5%).

In particular, decline in consumption of food products was stronger than in the previous quarter (−1.3% after −0.3%), whereas expenditures on energy dropped (−1.9% after +0.8%) because of temperatures higher than the seasonal norms in April.

In services, the slow down was notably driven by the significant downturn in transport expenses (−2.7% after +1.1%), mainly in rail transport as a result of strikes.

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab3Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 32.1 32.0 31.9   32.0  
Households' purchasing power 0.5 0.2 -0.6   1.4 -0.1
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
HDI 0.6 0.7 0.0   2.7 1.0
Household purchasing power 0.5 0.2 -0.6 1.4 -0.1
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.4 0.1 -0.7 0.9 -0.3
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 0.2 -0.4 1.5 0.1
Saving rate (level) 14.3 14.3 13.6 14.2  
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 4.3 3.6   4.4  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment accelerated, household investment was almost stable

In Q2 2018, total GFCF recovered sharply (+0.8% after +0.2% in Q1 2018), especially because of the upsurge in corporate investment (+1.3% after +0.1%). It was mainly due to the upswing in manufactured goods (+1.6% after −1.0%). Conversely, household investment weakened slightly (−0.1% after +0.3%).

Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017
Profit share 32.1 32.0 31.9   32.0
Investment ratio 23.5 23.6 23.6   23.5
Savings ratio 23.0 22.3 22.9   22.5
Self-financing ratio 97.8 94.6 96.9   95.9
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP this quarter

Imports recovered sharply in Q2 2018 after the decrease observed in Q1 (+1.0% after −0.4%). Exports also bounced back but to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after a neutral contribution in the previous quarter.

Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 324.6 327.3 329.0   1292.5
Total receipts 309.0 314.7 315.0   1232.8
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -15.6 -12.6 -14.1   -59.7
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.7 -2.2 -2.4   -2.6
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

GDP growth estimate for Q2 2018 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)

Pour en savoir plus

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