29 August 2018
2018- n° 223French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2018 Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - second quarter 2018
In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).
Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.0% after −0.4%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.2 points after 0.0 points).
In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).
Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.0% after −0.4%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.2 points after 0.0 points).
graphiqueGraph – GDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab1 – GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Imports | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| Household consumption *expenditure | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| General government's *consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| GFCF | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| *of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| Households | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
| General government | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Exports | 0.9 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Inventory changes | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Net foreign trade | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
- Source: INSEE
Total production slightly increased
Production in goods and services barely accelerated in Q2 2018 (+0.2% after +0.1%). It fell back again in goods (−0.3% after −0.6%) while it continued to grow in services (+0.4% after +0.3%).
Output in manufactured goods fell back again this quarter (−0.2% after −1.0%). Production in refinery stepped back (−10.2% after −1.6%) due to technical maintenance; production in electricity and gas dropped too (−1.7% after +1.8%). However, construction bounced back (+0.5% after −0.4%).
tableauTab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goods | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Manufactured Industry | 0.9 | 1.3 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| Construction | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| Market services | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Non-market services | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Household consumption | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Food products | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
| Energy | 1.3 | -0.6 | 0.8 | -1.9 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Engineered goods | 1.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Services | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| GFCF | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Manufactured goods | 1.8 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| Construction | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Market services | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 3.6 |
- Source: INSEE
Household consumption faltered
Household consumption expenditure faltered slightly in Q2 2018 (−0.1% after +0.2%): consumption of goods declined again (−0.3% after −0.1%) and that of services slowed down sharply (+0.1% after +0.5%).
In particular, decline in consumption of food products was stronger than in the previous quarter (−1.3% after −0.3%), whereas expenditures on energy dropped (−1.9% after +0.8%) because of temperatures higher than the seasonal norms in April.
In services, the slow down was notably driven by the significant downturn in transport expenses (−2.7% after +1.1%), mainly in rail transport as a result of strikes.
* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
tableauTab3 – Sectoral accounts
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) | 32.1 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 32.0 | ||
| Households' purchasing power | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
- *NFCs: non-financial corporations
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | |
| Household purchasing power | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.3 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.3 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 14.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
- *cu: consumption unit
- Source: INSEE
Corporate investment accelerated, household investment was almost stable
In Q2 2018, total GFCF recovered sharply (+0.8% after +0.2% in Q1 2018), especially because of the upsurge in corporate investment (+1.3% after +0.1%). It was mainly due to the upswing in manufactured goods (+1.6% after −1.0%). Conversely, household investment weakened slightly (−0.1% after +0.3%).
tableauTab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 32.1 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 32.0 | |
| Investment ratio | 23.5 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 | |
| Savings ratio | 23.0 | 22.3 | 22.9 | 22.5 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 97.8 | 94.6 | 96.9 | 95.9 |
- Source: INSEE
Foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP this quarter
Imports recovered sharply in Q2 2018 after the decrease observed in Q1 (+1.0% after −0.4%). Exports also bounced back but to a lesser extent (+0.2% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after a neutral contribution in the previous quarter.
tableauTab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 324.6 | 327.3 | 329.0 | 1292.5 | |
| Total receipts | 309.0 | 314.7 | 315.0 | 1232.8 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -15.6 | -12.6 | -14.1 | -59.7 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.7 | -2.2 | -2.4 | -2.6 |
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
GDP growth estimate for Q2 2018 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series: Operations on goods an services
Time series: Gross domestic product balance
Time series: Institutional sector accounts
Time series: Branch accounts
