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In August 2018, the French business climate falters slightly and the employment climate is stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - August 2018

In August 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly but remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). It has returned to its level of May 2017. Compared to July, the business climate has lost one point in building construction as in services, and three in retail trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides N° 220
No 220
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 23/08/2018
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2018 at 08:45 - October 2018

The French business climate has lost one point

In August 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly but remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point and stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). It has returned to its level of May 2017. Compared to July, the business climate has lost one point in building construction as in services, and three in retail trade. It has gained one point in manufacturing industry. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate is stable

In August 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands, as in July, at 108, that is well above its long-term average. Mainly, the rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in services sector excluding temporary employment has offset the decline in that on expected employment in retail trade.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate in July 2018, the composite indicators for manufacturing industry, services and retail trade have been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses, as well as, for manufacturing and services, from the update of the seasonal coefficients and the parameters of the composite indicator. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Graph 1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table 1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
April 18 May 18 June 18 July 18 Aug. 18
Business climates
France 109 107 107 106 105
Manufacturing 110 110 110 109 110
Building 108 108 108 109 108
Services 107 104 105 105 104
Retail trade 112 112 112 114 111
Wholesale trade - 104 - 101 -
Employment climate
Employment 108 108 110 108 108
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table 2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
April 18 May 18 June 18 July 18 Aug. 18
France 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4
Manufacturing 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4
Building 0.5 0.4 0.1 –0.1 –0.4
Services 0.3 –0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4
Wholesale trade - –0.8 - –0.3 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph 3 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)