Insee conjoncture

French GDP slowed down in Q1 2018 (+0.3% after +0.7%)Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2018

In Q1 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.3% after +0.7% in Q4 2017. Household consumption expenditures rose at the same pace as in Q4 2017 (+0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation lost momentum (GFCF: +0.6% after +1.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes slowed down and contributed less to GDP growth: +0.3 points after +0.5 points.

Exports weakened slightly (−0.1% after +2.5%) and imports held steady (0.0% after +0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance didn't contribute to GDP growth in Q1. Similarly, changes in inventories were stable and therefore they didn't contribute to GDP growth.

Informations rapides N° 111
No 111
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 27/04/2018
Prochaine parution le : 30/01/2019 at 07:30 - fourth quarter 2018

In Q1 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.3% after +0.7% in Q4 2017. Household consumption expenditures rose at the same pace as in Q4 2017 (+0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation lost momentum (GFCF: +0.6% after +1.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes slowed down and contributed less to GDP growth: +0.3 points after +0.5 points.

Exports weakened slightly (−0.1% after +2.5%) and imports held steady (0.0% after +0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance didn't contribute to GDP growth in Q1. Similarly, changes in inventories were stable and therefore they didn't contribute to GDP growth.

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph – GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1 – GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.0 1.2
Imports -0.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.1 1.2
Household consumption *expenditure 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.7
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.0
GFCF 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.6 3.8 2.1
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.9 1.2 1.6 0.5 4.4 2.5
Households 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 5.4 1.7
General government 0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.9 -1.0 1.2
Exports 2.0 0.7 2.5 -0.1 3.3 2.6
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.9 1.1
Inventory changes -0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.5 -0.3
Net foreign trade 0.7 -0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.3 0.4
  • Source: INSEE

Total production decelerated

Production in goods and services slowed down in Q1 2018 (+0.3% after +0.9%). It fell back markedly in goods (−0.6% after +1.2%) while it continued to grow at a sustained pace in services (+0.5% after +0.8%).

Output in manufactured goods fell back (−1.1% after +1.5%), mainly owing to a significant decrease in transport equipment. However, production in electricity and gas picked up (+2.1% after +0.0%) as well as in construction (+0.6% after +0.0%).

Tab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 2.4 1.5
Goods 0.7 0.9 1.2 -0.6 2.0 0.9
Manufactured Industry 0.7 0.7 1.5 -1.1 2.0 0.5
Construction 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.2
Market services 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 2.9 1.9
Non-market services 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.0
Household consumption 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.7
Food products 0.6 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 0.8 -0.3
Energy 0.5 1.5 -0.6 1.4 0.0 1.8
Engineered goods 0.2 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 1.7 0.3
Services 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.8 1.1
GFCF 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.6 3.8 2.1
Manufactured goods 0.1 1.4 1.7 -0.9 1.8 1.1
Construction 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.6 1.4
Market services 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 6.5 3.7
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption remained sluggish

Household consumption expenditure continued to be sluggish in Q1 2018 (+0.2% after +0.2%): consumption of goods was stable for the second consecutive quarter while that of services slowed down slightly (+0.4% after +0.5%).

Particularly, consumption of food products declined (−0.5% after +0.3%) while expenditure on energy bounced back (+1.4% after −0.6%) because of temperatures lower than the seasonal norms in February and March.

Tab3 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2016 2017
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 31.8 31.8 31.9   31.8 31.7
Households' purchasing power 0.6 0.5 0.2   1.8 1.5
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2016 2017
HDI 0.5 0.6 0.6   1.7 2.4
Household purchasing power 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.8 1.5
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.4 1.1
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.7 1.6
Saving rate (level) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.2
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 4.4 4.5   4.7 4.4
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment decelerated, household investment was almost stable

In Q1 2018, total GFCF increased at a lower pace (+0.6% after +1.1 in Q4 2017), especially because of the slowdown in corporate investment (+0.5% after +1.6%). It was mainly due to the decline in manufactured goods (−0.9% after +1.7%). Household investment grew at almost the same pace as the previous quarter (+0.5% after +0.6%) because of the good performance of the construction sector.

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2016 2017
Profit share 31.8 31.8 31.9   31.8 31.7
Investment ratio 23.7 23.8 24.0 23.3 23.8
Savings ratio 19.8 19.9 19.2 19.7 19.7
Self-financing ratio 83.3 83.7 79.9   84.3 82.5
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contribution on GDP growth was null

Exports were almost stable in Q1 2018 after the marked dynamism observed in Q4 2017 (−0.1% after +2.5%), especially in transport equipment. At the same time, imports were stable (+0.0% after +0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance did not contribute to GDP growth, after a contribution of +0.6 points in the previous quarter.

Tab6 – Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations)

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations)
2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2016 2017
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 321.4 324.5 326.9 1260.7 1292.3
Total receipts 306.7 308.6 315.1 1184.8 1232.8
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -14.7 -15.9 -11.8   –75.8 -59.6
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.6 -2.8 -2.0   –3.4 -2.6
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

GDP growth estimate for Q4 2017 is confirmed. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)