Insee conjoncture

In April 2018, the French business climate has faltered slightly again but remains at a high level; the employment climate is slightly less favourableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - April 2018

In April 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly again, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point for the fourth consecutive month. At 108, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides N° 106
No 106
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 24/04/2018
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2018 at 08:45 - December 2018

The French business climate weakens slightly in April

In April 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly again, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point for the fourth consecutive month. At 108, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in retail trade and one point in manufacturing industry. It is stable in services and in building construction. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate is slightly less favourable

In April 2018, the employment climate has weakened slightly but remains at a high level. The associated composite indicator has lost two points since March when it had reached a level unseen since July 2011. It stands at 109, well above its long-term average. This decrease comes from a decline in the balances of opinion on workforce size in the main sectors in April 2018.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate, the composite indicator for the manufacturing industry in March 2018 has been lowered by one point. This revision results from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph 1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table 1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Dec. 17 Jan. 18 Feb. 18 March 18 April 18
Business climates
France 112 111 110 109 108
Manufacturing 112 114 112 110 109
Building 109 108 106 107 107
Services 110 109 107 107 107
Retail trade 114 114 115 113 110
Wholesale trade - 107 - 109 -
Employment climate
Employment 109 109 110 111 109
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator stands in the uncertainty area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic outlook.

Table 2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Dec. 17 Jan. 18 Feb. 18 March 18 April 18
France 0.9 0.8 –0.4 –0.2 –0.1
Manufacturing 0.7 0.9 0.7 –0.6 –0.2
Building 0.8 0.1 –0.8 –0.3 0.1
Services 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3
Wholesale trade - 0.5 - 0.6 -
  • Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys

Graph 3 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. -1). the indicator shows a favourable short-term economic situation (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between -0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)