Insee conjoncture

In February 2018, the French business climate falters slightly again but remains favourable; the employment climate is stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - February 2018

In February 2018, the business climate is slightly less favourable than in the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points after a slight dip in January. Nevertheless, at 109, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in services, two points in manufacturing industry and one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides N° 45
No 45
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 22/02/2018
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2018 at 08:45 - October 2018

The French business climate indicator has dipped again in February

In February 2018, the business climate is slightly less favourable than in the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points after a slight dip in January. Nevertheless, at 109, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost three points in services, two points in manufacturing industry and one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate remains stable at a high level

In February 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 109 for the third consecutive month, clearly above its long-term mean (100) and at its highest level since August 2011. In detail, the decrease in the balance of opinion on expected workforce size in the service sector (excluding temporary employment) has been offset by the rise in the balances on past workforce size in the service sector (excluding temporary employment) and on expected workforce size in temporary work agencies.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate in January 2018, the composite indicators for the whole economy and manufacturing industry have been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph3 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan. 18 Feb. 18
Business climates
France 109 111 112 111 109
Manufacturing 111 113 112 114 112
Building 105 107 109 108 107
Services 107 108 111 109 106
Retail trade 113 116 114 114 114
Wholesale trade - 111 - 106 -
Employment climate
Employment 108 108 109 109 109
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator has moved into the area showing an uncertain short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole has moved into the area showing an uncertain short-term economic outlook, for the first time since April 2017.

Table2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan. 18 Feb. 18
France 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1
Manufacturing 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7
Building 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 –0.3
Services 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.2
Wholesale trade - 0.9 - 0.5 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)