22 February 2018

2018- n° 41

In February 2018, the business climate in manufacturing slightly falters while remaining very favourable Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - February 2018

According to the business managers surveyed in February 2018, the business climate in industry remains very favourable, although the composite indicator has edged down by two points after hitting a seventeen-year high in January. At 112, it remains well above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

The balances of opinion of industrialists on past activity and personal production expectations have fallen back in February. However, the two balances remain well above their long-term average.

Manufacturers are also less optimistic than in January about the general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has returned to its end-2017 level, after reaching last month its highest level since July 2000.

The balances on export and overall order books are stable at a very high level, the highest point since December 2007 for export order books and since March 2008 for overall order books.

Virtually as many industrialists as in January consider that their finished-goods inventories are above normal. The corresponding balance remains below its long-term mean.

The business climate in manufacturing in January 2018 has been raised from 113 to 114 since its first estimation published last month, mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has weakened by three points in February. At 109, it remains well above its long-term average (100). This weakening mainly comes from a fall in the balances of opinion on past and future activity.

In the overall manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has lost two points in February after reaching a ten-year high last month. This decrease mainly comes from that in the balances on overall and export order books and on past activity.

The business climate has faltered in the computer, electronic and optical product industry and in machinery and equipment, while it is stable in electrical equipment.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate remains at its high level of last month (112), the highest level since June 2001. The improvement in the balances on export order books and past activity is partly offset by the slight decline of the others.

The business climate has picked up in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers after a slight drop in January. In other transport equipment, it has decreased by one point while remaining well above its average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate has dipped by one point. At 110, it remains at a very high level. This slight drop is mainly due to the decrease in the balances on export order books, on past and future activity.

By subsector, the business climate indicator has declined in chemicals, clothing-textiles and in “other manufacturing industries”. It is stable in wood-paper and rubber and plastic products and has slightly brightened in basic metals.